Punters Club: 2015 Billabong Pipeline Masters
Forecast: "The surf forecast for the Pipeline Masters is very active, with favourable winds for the entire period and a series of strong, occasionally very large overlapping swells across the North Shore."
"We’re likely to kick off proceedings on Tuesday 8th with a mix of moderate, residual energy in the 4-6ft range, and the leading edge of a building long period W/NW groundswell that’s expected to peak early Wednesday at 12-15ft. This should start to show some serious size by late Tuesday, so it’ll be interesting to see how much gets run on Day 1."
"Although wave heights will then trend downwards from late Wednesday onwards, it’s a 50/50 call whether Thursday will still be a too big for Pipe - early sets may offer consistent waves at second reef around 10-12ft before it eases further throughout the day."
"In any case, the chance for a few lay days early in the waiting period isn’t much of a concern, as we’re looking at a steady succession of strong storms through the swell window all week, which should generate solid overlapping W/NW, NW and N/NW swell trains right through until Sunday 13th. Further potentially large swells are showing up on the long term radar beyond this too."
"At this stage it’s unlikely that the surf will drop below 4ft throughout the first half of the waiting period; most days will be considerably larger, and with steady trade winds we should see great conditions for Pipeline. Contest organisers may end up having problems choosing which days not to run." - Ben Matson
In: Bruce Irons (because he's Bruce) and three other wild cards yet to be named.
Out: Matty Banting (injury) and Freddy P (retired)
This year's Pipeline Masters already has a few pages put aside in the history books.There are six possible contenders for the World Title with four wildcards (including Bruce) looking to upset the apple cart, meanwhile the surf through the early rounds is looking to be as big as 12-15 foot. Bring. It. On.
Last year's winner Julian Wilson is one of the only surfers in the title hunt who knows who'll he be surfing against in Round 1 (Kai Otton and Richardo Christie). Jules has a great record at Pipe including a win here last year. This year he's finished 2nd at Margaret River and notched a 5th at Fiji - both campaigns included some serious heavy water moments. I've seen a change in Jules this year and another win here would suprise no-one. Yet if he's to win the title he needs a few things to swing his way, namely Mick Fanning to finish in Round 2, Filipe Toledo in Round 2, Adriano De Souza in Round 3, and Gabriel Medina in the Quarters.
$13.00 for the Event Win
$34.00 for the World Title
Last year's Pipeline runner up Gabriel Medina took some time to kick off his 2015 World Title campaign only finding form at J'Bay. Since then he hasn't finished less than the Quarter Finals. Gabe has shown he'll 'ave a go in the big stuff. If his Chopes win last year wasn't enough to convince you then last week's 'float-to-elevator-drop-to-backslap-to-seamless recovery' might do the trick. Gabe's currently sitting fourth in the World Title race, to win he'll need Mick Fanning, Filipe Toledo, and Adriano De Souza to finish in the Quarters.
$8.50 for the Event Win
$8.00 for the World Title
Mick Fanning is looking down the barrel of his fourth World Title but he'll need to put his Pipeline record behind him if he's to achieve what only Mark Richards and Kelly Slater have done. Mick has only made the finals at Pipe twice: in 2005 when he came second, and 2002 when he came fourth - both four man final formats. In 2013 he made it to the Semi Finals but outside of that he hasn't cracked the Quarter Finals, which is nothing Mick's history on the other long-time running event on the World Tour. That aside; once you break it down he's still one of the top picks for the Event Win and the World Title. If Mick wins Pipe he wins the World Title. If he makes the Final, either Filipe Toledo or Adriano De Souza need to win.
$8.00 for the Event Win
$1.91 for the World Title
Filipe Toledo is currently sitting second in line for the World Title but you cannot help but feel this one's out of his reach given the forecast. Filipe goes up against Kolohe Andino and one of the wildcards in his Round 1 heat. He'll need to dig really deep to get through those early rounds which appear certain to run with enough size to kick over Second and maybe even Third Reef Pipe. Filipe did manage a Quarter Final finish last year and the waves weren't too shabby then either. I wish him all the best, I hope he goes hard. I'll be gunning for him from my couch but my money is best invested elsewhere.
$29.00 for the Event Win
$4.20 for the World Title
Adriano De Souza will be the X-factor a Pipe. ADS doesn’t make many highlight videos or event posters but his competitiveness is possibly only trumped by Mick Fanning. ADS will charge hard whether its massive Pipe or freight-train Backdoor. You almost know he's going to have a good finish in all conditions so it'll be on Mick Fanning and Filipe Toledo to finish ahead or ADS or he's the next in line for the World Title win.
$26.00 for the Event Win
$4.50 for the World Title
Owen Wright would have to win the brass balls award this year with his performances at Margaret River, Fiji, and Chopes. There's nothing more dangerous than Owen when he doesn’t give a shit and in the big stuff he sure don't – he'll go! I think Owen's chances of winning the World Title are slim but a win at Pipe is very likely. If the surfing and scores are focused on Pipe in the later rounds he's my favourite to win. However if Backdoor comes more into play I think others would suit.
$13.00 for the Event Win
$21.00 for the World Title
The Pipeline specialists in Kelly Slater ($7.00), John John Florence ($5.00) and the wildcards will determine the World Title. These guys are on another level when it comes to surfing Pipe and Backdoor. If they're on fire anything could happen. *Prices based on Event Win.
Hot Tip: Consider a few roughies for early round wins. Each of them loves the big stuff and a win will pay handsomely: Ace Buchan ($41.00), CJ Hobgood ($34.00) and my dark horse Richardo Christie ($201.00). *Prices based on Event Win.
William Hill have a number of markets available around the Billabong Pipeline Masters including the top finisher by country, personal match-ups, heat by heat, and of course the World Title.
Swellnet would like to thank William Hill and Danny Hayes for their Punter's Club coverage for the 2015 WSL World Tour. We would also like to remind everyone that in no way does Swellnet encourage you to bet on the surfing or any other sport. If you're like Danny and other Swellnet users who enjoy a small flutter on sporting events, good luck and please bet responsibly.
Comments
3 Aussies vs 3 Brazzos for the world title, going be interesting. The WSL comments will be going nuts with national pride on both sides.
I only pray it is going to be all time Pipe (and backdoor). Will make for great viewing. Forecast certainly looks good.
if it is lower than 3 foot Flippy could win!
Free surf footage on wsl website/app is pretty much all about Owen Wright charging. That's where my money is going if the swell is favouring pipe more than Backdoor
Buoy data has been extremely slow compared to model guidance, but it looks like it's finally kicked into gear with around 14ft at 16 seconds as per the last reading (4:50pm local). This is well behind schedule though, and the resulting surf size may be a little under expectations tomorrow.
How many full days does it take to get through the pipe field?
Never knew this. Straight from the WSL website
NOTE: Due to permitting restrictions, the event at Pipe is only allotted four days in which to complete the Billabong Pipe Masters during the Dec 8 - Dec 20 window. In order to complete the competition, event organizers must carefully select days on which there is enough swell to provide world-class surf for the entirety of the day's action.
Ah great info, I never knew this either.
That includes a full day of trials to with quarters semis and finals.
TRIALS EVENT MATCH-UPS:
Heat 1: Jack Freestone, Sunny Garcia, Griffin Colapinto, Nathan Fletcher
Heat 2: Mason Ho, Dane Reynolds, Gavin Gillette, Makai McNamara
Heat 3: Ian Walsh, Joel Centeio, Kaimana Jaquias, Mikey Bruneau
Heat 4: Jack Robinson, Kalani David, Hank Gaskell, Isaiah Moniz
Heat 5: Ezekiel Lau, Seth Moniz, Alex Smith, Nathan Florence
Heat 6: Josh Moniz, Kiron Jabour, Jamie O’Brien, Myles Padaca
Heat 7: Granger Larsen, Kaito Kino, Kekoa Cazimero, Evan Valiere
Heat 8: Tanner Hendrickson, Billy Kemper, Olamana Eleogram, Luke Shepardson
Read more at http://www.surfermag.com/blogs/pipe-masters-heat-draw/#UZ357WLo7oC2UKFW.99
Fanning going to have it tough, has pipe specialist Seabass needing to get to the business end of comp to make WCT and will have the 2nd placed trialist winner.
There's no betting on the trials but some of the heats are up for the main draw couple of standouts
Owen Wright at $1.75 is a shoe in if its soid
Kai Otten at $3.00 always charges
Parko $2.20 good value.
Hard to go past John John but paying 1.36 v Brett Simpson 5.25 and Nat Young $4.20 would be a good roughie....faark you could almost back both of them and hope John John is still dreaming about Taylor Swift and has a shocker
If I was betting, I'd be putting my money on Medina. Surfs reef breaks extraordinarily well. Seems to be able to pick the right wave. Can get long Backdoor tubes on his backhand, a rare feat. And he is just so strong. Can get clamped by a Pipeline tube, but not get knocked over and make it thru. He is about the only one who can do that.
I agree medina is a good bet but I reckon I've seen Slater, jjf, Owen, JOB, fanning do that last bit.
Gotta run tomorrow surely. Gram feeds are all images of pumping pipe/backdoor tonight
Yep they're running the Trials this morning. Looks pretty big, but we're more than 15 minutes into the first heat - with just nine minutes left - and not a single wave has been ridden yet (four competitors in the water too).
Five minutes to go... nothing ridden...
OK, Griffin just caught the first wave with four minutes to go - a second reefer that closed out - he scored 1.67, and will probably win the heat!
And... Jack Freestone got a similar wave, scoring an 0.87. The heat just finished, so Jack came second and he'll advance through.
At least a few more waves have been ridden in the second heat.
Be interesting to hear them interview Sunny about the quality of waves on offer for his, the first, heat of the day. Could add some entertainment.
I can't get the live feed?
Edit: had to download the wsl app on my phone to get it working. Never had to do that before to watch it?
It's pumping for Jack Robinsion - spat to the channel for 9.50 points.
Wish the CT guys were out in this. Hate the fact the trialists will probably get the best of the swell
Lotta swell to come Eel, wouldn't be too worried.
Looks like it's settling enough for Backdoor. Mason Ho just got a bomb.
The swells since the trials have been underwhelming. Chances are this thing is going to finish in head high waves...
Yep, looks like you're right Eel, the forecast really fell apart. 4-6 foot tops now.
Few whispers on gram that it will be running tomorrow.....the forecast is up and down but back to looking the goods 4-6 tomorrow from Lunch and then 6-8 Wednesday.
Having mighty trouble getting the audio on the webcast. I can hear the effects mike, waves crashing in the background, wind, and the music they play at the start of ads, but no bloody audio.
Anyone else struggling with this?
Normally it wouldn't bother too much, but I'm at work and have to keep doing my spreadsheets, and the earphones tell me when to switch over, but with no audio I'm rooted!
Damn, got it sorted! Farking hell, the earphone was plugged in so I was getting background noise, but not completely! :-)
Id10T!
Second last day on the job for good!!! Pipe, Cricket and some last minute xmas shopping.
Winning!!
Great stuff!
With some added motivation for your Sth America trip, Frothing!
From what I watched this morning it was very underwhelming. Too much North in the swell.
There's occasionally some absolute gems. But lots of average waves, and lots of waiting around too.
Agree with Don. Wasn't the forecast for 10-12ft? I haven't seen any second reef waves (although haven't been watching intently). A couple of nuggets coming through but I was expecting a lot more.
There you go Cman, a Third Reef set just mowed through. Pretty ugly though.
Yeah, I think I saw one right after I posted that. Maybe my internal wave height calibrator is all messed up after Pe'ahi
I was always iffy of this swell and called 10-12ft last week, but upped the size a little because Surfline and Pat Caldwell who are better experienced for the North Shore were calling a similar sized swell to the weekend.
Looks like it's around my initial thoughts.
"Both swells are due to arrive around the same time, and I feel the forecast models are over-cooking the peak in size across Hawaii as it incorrectly combines both the W/NW and NW groundswells."
In any case tomorrow's secondary pulse of renforcing NW groundswell is on track, while next week's swells are looking better as well. Will have an update this afternoon.
Pipe's pretty hard to assess overall North Shore size though. Would be interesting to see how big Sunset is today, in comparison.
Jack and Mason to qualify please sir.
Interesting Ronnie and Ross got the call for the final. Usually thats Potz and Turpel exclusive domain.
Fuk yeah! Go jack you little ripper!
I seemed to have vision of the surfing, but commentary from the PGA. Kept hearing about guys taking chip shots...
Owen unlikely to start now, taken to hospital with severe concussion.
In the 1st round I've got Jerermy Flores @ $1.90, Kelly Slater @ $1.85 and Mick Fanning $2.25 at Unibet.
Gabriel Medina @ $1.65 at Tom Waterhouse and Jame O'brien @ $2.05 at Crownbet.
I have $50 on each, good luck all!
Damn, brutal. Rest up Owen.
Nice Bushido. I changed my mine on Owen call and got a roughie in Jadson Andre $50 at $5.50. If you remember he absoutely charged macking Teauphoo last year when it was on. Reckon he will be psyched as he is on the bubble.
All the heats are up now. Think the wildcards are going to cause havoc.
Fanning $2.25 has Bruce Irons $3 and Seabass $3
Asing in with Medina and Carmichael. Can anyone fill us in on Wade pipe skill???
Toledo has JOB and Kolohe and has blown out to $5.50 with JOB favourite at 1.77. If Teledo loses he be underdog again in round 2. Kolohe be surfing safe already double qualified. I would think JOB get the JOB done. Ha!
Bookies installed Jack Robinson as favourite against De SOuza and Bourez. that's a massive call. Hate backing the brazzilnuts but cash is king $3.25 for ADS geez good money if he gets over the line.
Anyone reckon they will run tomorrow??
Yeah I like ADS at those odds, Robinson charges but is very young and Bourez is inconsistent.
If Owen is out do all the heats change because all the seeding gets changed around?
Nope he will just miss his round one heat. But bets void in that heat as all surfers have to hit water.
He's not well suffering seizures surfline reporting
As of 7pm local time, reports are filtering in that Owen has had some seizures and more tests are being done at Queens in Town to determine whether there's internal bleeding. Suffice to say, while unconfirmed, it seems unlikely Wright will compete in the Pipe Masters tomorrow.
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/wright-suffers-early-morning-pipe-beat...
Something has happened to the wave height calling game. In years gone by the hawaiians would have called that 6'. I am so behind in the wave height calling department.
As for Owen's injury, I would like to send an unqualified apology to the Wright family in general, and Owen in particular. I threw $50 on Owen to win the comp on Wednesday morning. Believe me when I say, " I am responsible"
I hope he can get back up, but I suspect he is better off giving the whole comp a miss. Boxers and footy players have to wait weeks and months after a concussion, another one could be very bad for him.
Perhaps I will get my money back if he doesn't compete, but bloody hell, I was hoping to see him win and take the title as well. I think he has been the best surfer this year in waves of consequence, and he really had that look about him. Just when I thought he deserved a bit of luck, he got plenty, but it was all bad.
Sorry.
And on another note, Jack Robinson was unbefarkinglievable today. I thought John John Florence was enough of a freak, and he learned to surf there, but JR comes in and surfs as coolly as anyone I have seen out there. Amazing.
How does someone get that good and cool in waves of consequence at age 17 FFS!
Is my money refunded if Owen sits out rd 1?
At TAB that is.
Hey Ben, Craig, Stu,
Enjoying the comp.
But whats with this:
Swellnet would like to thank William Hill and Danny Hayes for their Punter's Club coverage for the 2015 WSL World Tour. We would also like to remind everyone that in no way does Swellnet encourage you to bet on the surfing or any other sport.
Then why publish it if you don't want to encourage it??? Weasel words if there ever was, just be up front. Not a big fan of gambling, but even less a fan of crummy spin like that.
Why publish the Form Guide series? We've been commentating on surf events in some way, shape or form for around eight years, so there's nothing new here. However with a presenting sponsor such as William Hill (who came on board this year) we felt we needed to add a disclaimer.
Hope it pumps love watching bruce go bruicie....
Dusty into jamie into bruce into wilko..my pick first up.....
Rule #1 of surf betting.
Never back wilko.
Comp's on again, Kieren Perrow's calling 8-10ft.
I bloody love JohnJohn. That combo was sick.
The Uncertainty Principle is inherent in the properties of ALL wave like systems.
William Hill if you're reading this you have got to improve how long it takes you to get the betting options up. Currently no surfing under sport, and no option to bet on round 2....
Surfing is listed under 'All Sports', and they've got Heat 1 and Heat 2 already up.
Whoa, that's a stitch up... I was refreshing the page every 5 mins and it must be a coincidence its gone up.
I had the same problem, thought the guy that did the surfing at WH threw a sickie
Gary would love CJ to win.
Gary have another Gary. CJ got Italo, the rookie of the year and that is a fine bet $2.25 Italo for the win.
Got a little on Fillipe, ADS and Italo for the win.
overall or heats?
Overall.
Is Mick still the favourite for the world tittle? I don't feel he is. Hopefully backdoor will be on.
I'm guessing if Mick can get past JOB then he'll be favourite but that's one tough draw if the swell turns up as forecast. I can imagine he might be quietly fuming given ADS has got Glen Hall
And if Kelly and Johnx2 win their heats they'll be joined by either Mick or J.O.B in the same 3 man heat. Either way that's going to be a must see 3 man heat at hopefully pumping pipe
Hard day at the office so far. Bede hurt horrific wipeout. I cant seem to bring up the odds on William Hill under all sports Ben. Is there a different link?
Kelly in water time for the waves to turn on.
Can't find a link either Mick. Maybe betting has closed for the event if it's the last day?
Yeah did this the other day. Something has changed. Hard to whack in bets before the day not knowing conditions.
Inco Pipe, but could be classic for the arvo once trade comes in
Mick needs to get priority off O'Brien for the last 20
After getting written off wonder if Micro Hall can upset ADS.
It'd be because no one would be there working yet to put up the odds early morning as competition continues.
Its back up now under sports. Micro paying 4$. That will close out all three of your bets above Craig haha
Oh Kelly, that was a sick barrel.
4.67 for Filipe's bomb?? There'll be riots in Rio and fair enuff, that was worth a few points more.
Commentators agree too. There's dischord in the WSL house.
Be interesting how they handle this the Brazzos. Certainly Filipe got on front foot in his interview with Rosy. Very professional.
Very gracious interview from Filipe considering the consequences and the situation. Big respect.
Me too Stu I have mixed feelings about his surfing but certainly not is attitude. Didn't break down and cry like Medina at the same age.
Toledo ripped off.
OMG Feel for Mick news is breaking on TV that his other brother has just died…God i hope he wins the tittle won't change things but still.
Yep, news everywhere in the last 30 mins ... FUCK, what a year for Mick? Mental toughness to go out an compete ... sheesh
Wow, are you serious?
How sad, condolences to Mick. What a year. Hope he can go on.
And his next heat is crazy Mick vs Kelly vs John John.
Yep, unfortunately zen, google it ... it's popping up everywhere ATM
Next heat is at least a non elimination ... but, yeah, what a heat!
Just read it guys, unbelievable.
I'm gunning for Mick and wouldn't be unhappy if Ads got up but please, anybody but Medina.
Gotta agree Zen, the kid can surf and he rips but I have zero respect for him, anybody but Medina.
Bloody hell though, what a year/life Mick has had. If he gets through all this, it will certainly prove the mental toughness he has. Cannot even fathom the emotions and feelings that must be going through his head right now.
Agree with ya zen ... ADS seems to have been overlooked by the zoseas marketing push, but geez, he's a solid surfer and when I met him, surfed with him around here a few years back, was a really humble kid. (and ripped) ... he's just got through at Pipe.
Was good to see the judges scored Mason Ho fairly for his wave too, which knocked Toledo out ... fucking commentators were hyping up Toledo's wave and hinting Ho's wasn't as good, but judges gave it a 5 and he got through ... commentators were a tad surprised.
I thought Toledo's score was about right, too.
Kai would've got a 9 or 10 from his position though.
For once one of these touted 'superheats'is living up to expectations. Hoping Mick scrapes through, but some awesome barrels going down.
Bit rough of Pete Mel to, in a very journalistic way, push Mick for the personal goss in his post heat interview causing him to tear up. Surely there is a 'do not discuss' memorandum.....
X2 Pfunk, a bit un professional IMO.
bang on p-funk I thought the same thing....
How do they order round 5 when it is reseeded?
Did anyone else think Slater's buzzer-beater was way underscored? Not many people in the word would have been able to make that wave...
Definitely!!!
I don't understand how Slater and Fanning are up against each other in the Qtrs now? I thought the guys who come up against each other in Rd 4 can't face each other again until the final now?
Agree kaiser … that was special. I think Slater was really pleased that it did not gazump Mick. What a heat … the best.
I thought it was underscored, especially when he then came out in the next heat against Keanu and pulled into a not overly special Pipe bowl to then get a 9!!??
Was a good day on punt. Cant't pick betwwen Josh and Flores. I would go large on Medina to beat CJ at backdoor.
Gone Medina Slater Melling and however makes it through to beat ADS. King Kelly owes Medina and will win Pipe Masters giving his friend Mick the title....... anyway thats my punt
Put up ya finals day picks!!
BtW William Hill has the quarters draw wrong they have Medina in heat 3 its heat 1. They are muppets.
Smaller today - shame they couldn't finish in yesterday's conditions.
Yep shoulda ran Tues arvo that way finals would have been yesterday (wed) arvo.
Congrats to De Souza
the only brazzo I didn't mind winning the WT.
And what an amazing victory speech, eh Udo? Rather than talking about himself he defers straight to his dead friend and also to Mick Fanning: "He deserves it more than me."
Man, say what you want about Brazilians but that shit was all class.
Plenty of time for ol De Zumba. He is the Lleyton Hewitt of surfing.
The old nag deserves one.
Thought I heard him say he just wanted to give Mick's mum a hug yesterday but didn't think it would be ok with the world title going on. Maybe I misunderstood that part but he seems a really good fella.
Yep, I've been guilty of writing him off in the past, but that speech was fantastic. Very humble fella.
Well done Ads, thoroughly deserved.
Feel sorry for Mick, what a crazy year the poor blokes had. Would of loved to see him win but hopefully he comes back bigger and better next year.
There ya have it. A poo man stance is the new world title holder.
And Medina wins the Triple Crown?
Medina for all the monies to win next year.
He only lost this year because he lost focus from his 1st world title.
He's a step above ADS , Mick and Filipe
Congrats to De Souza but that was a pretty crappy day of competition. They should have finished yesterday.
Good onya ADS, I've enjoyed watching your surfing all year.
Me too.
A worthy title and you can't say it was gifted to him.
Poo man stance? Maybe in the past but his surfing is the full package- speed, power and flow with a lovely style to boot.
Congrats Ads, well done.
Maybe poo stance is going a bit far but i see what your saying I'm not a fan of his style or surfing, of the top Brazzos he is my least favourite.
Bit of an anti climax for me kinda sucked seeing the finals held in such average inconsistent pipe and Mick chances being knocked out from an air on a small wave.
But i guess that's all pro surfing.
Come on next guard of Aussies get your shit together and crush this brazilian storm.