Punters Club: 2015 Moche Rip Curl Pro Portugal
Forecast: Competition is likely to get under way through Friday with a building W/NW groundswell under light variable winds. Sets should reach 4-5ft at Supertubos, a touch bigger at Baleal. This swell will drop through Saturday from 3-4ft with strengthening northerly winds.
From the weekend onwards, two successive low pressure systems developing off Newfoundland will push towards the UK, generating two larger pulses of NW groundswell. The first NW groundswell should build to the 4ft range across Supertubos later Sunday (bigger 6-8ft at Baleal) with light winds and then ease Monday under SW breezes.
The second swell will actually be quite significant as a fetch of storm to hurricane-force NW winds are aimed towards Portugal. Tuesday will see the arrival of the oversized NW groundswell coming in at a very large 12-15ft+ at exposed breaks but with unfavourable N/NW winds. Supertubos will be somewhat sheltered and the best option with half the size. A steady drop in size is due Wednesday as NW winds ease.
In: Mason Ho has the call-up again and we saw how dangerous he was in Bells earlier this year. Portugal’s Vasco Ribeiro has the second wildcard and was a former winner at the World Junior Championships. Tomas Hermes, Aritz Aranburu, Caio Ibelli, Tiago Pires, and Frederico Morais are all in for the CT'ers.
Out: Matty Banting and Jordy Smith continue to withdraw due to their ongoing injuries and Dusty Payne has also fallen to an injury. Taj Burrow is changing nappies. Freddy Patacchia Jr. is taking the rest of the year off.
Ol’ Danny managed his own win backing Gabriel Medina in France. However, I'm not so confident this event. When it’s on, Supertubos is a quick ride with winning points all headed towards the barrel - deep barrels! When it’s small or when it's onshore (and the points factory closes down) it can be an ugly scrap. Right now we’re looking at two good days of surf for the early rounds which will suit the more experienced surfers and the usual faces you see in Rosie’s post-heat interviews. After this, the forecast gets serious and it'll be make or break in big, dredging barrels.
Over the last three events, Gabriel Medina has regained his 2014 form and I can’t go past Gabe for the win. If it comes down to thumping drainers or tiny tuck-ins, he has it all. Bookies have also jumped on Gabe as a $6 favorite.
I’m also backing a 2012 finals rematch with Julian Wilson. The split peaks of Supertubos suit Julian’s explosive approach. Since 2011, Julian’s featured in the quarters twice and won once. He was also very unlucky to drop out in Round 2 last year in some very testing conditions against Alejo Muniz.
Mick Fanning has a hot and cold relationship with this event. Mick won last year and in 2009. He’s then only managed to make the quarters again in 2013. For most surfers that’s still an impressive record, but not for Mick. I’ve backed Mick for a semi-final finish.
Kai Otton won this event back in 2013 and finished in the semis last year. There’s just something about Ottz this year that glues you to each of his heats. Bookies have him at $14 to make the semis and that’s my hot tip of the event.
Watch out for strong results from Adriano de Souza. He may not feature in the final wave of the day’s highlights clips but he’s getting through heats and getting the job done. In all conditions ADS is dangerous.
Like Julian, John John Florence has that explosive nature about his surfing where you believe anything is possible. On skill alone JJF is a contender. It’s his competitive mind that holds him back from consistent big results. If the waves are coming in thick and fast he’s your man. If they’re anything else, you know his mind is elsewhere.
Where has Bede Durbidge been 2015? The White Fijian is in good form and a post-heat interview with Rosie at France showed a man riding high on confidence. I think he could be in for a big result here. He’s made the quarters on the Gold Coast in small surf and came second in Brazil during small surf. If Bede can get through the early rounds in Straddie-ish conditions he’s proven he can scrap it out in the slop. I’ve got Bede for a quarter-final appearance.
Kelly Slater...quarter-final or better. Enough said.
Filipe Toledo may have bombed out in Round 2 in France but you cannot deny he’s one of the in-form surfers this year. If Filipe can get through the early rounds of sizeable surf and the last few rounds are decided in smaller stuff, he’s a good chance for a big result. Here’s some of his modest wave shredding.
Other surfers to watch: Mason Ho has the barrel, carves, and air-game to match nearly all in the Top 34, and he can out-enthuse all of them. Owen Wright enjoys the big stuff and as an outside chance at a World Title has motivation to boot. Josh Kerr has had good results here and I think he’s much better than his results this year. Miguel Pupo is having an awful year and he’s ready for a better result in Portugal.
Moche Rip Curl Pro Portugal Round 1 Match-Ups:
- Heat 1: Filipe Toledo (BRA), Jadson Andre (BRA), Tomas Hermes (BRA)
- Heat 2: Gabriel Medina (BRA), Miguel Pupo (BRA), Mason Ho (HAW)
- Heat 3: Julian Wilson (AUS), Keanu Asing (HAW), Caio Ibelli (BRA)
- Heat 4: Owen Wright (AUS), Michel Bourez (PYF), Vasco Ribeiro (PRT)
- Heat 5: Adriano de Souza (BRA), Kolohe Andino (USA), Frederico Morais (PRT)
- Heat 6: Mick Fanning (AUS), Sebastian Zietz (HAW), Tiago Pires (PRT)
- Heat 7: Kelly Slater (USA), Adrian Buchan (AUS), Aritz Aranburu (ESP)
- Heat 8: Italo Ferreira (BRA), Joel Parkinson (AUS), Brett Simpson (USA)
- Heat 9: Jeremy Flores (FRA), Matt Wilkinson (AUS), Ricardo Christie (NZL)
- Heat 10: Nat Young (USA), Kai Otton (AUS), Glenn Hall (IRL)
- Heat 11: Bede Durbidge (AUS), John John Florence (HAW), C.J. Hobgood (USA)
- Heat 12: Josh Kerr (AUS), Wiggolly Dantas (BRA), Adam Melling (AUS)
Comments
Bookies do not like Bede hes 3.50 to win his heat against John john and CJ. $50 on the nose
Kelly isn't competing in Portugal
Looks like he decided to attend. Kelly "managed to push through rib pain to win his Round 1 heat and advance directly to the third round of competition."
What's going on with Joel? Hard to imagine it's a confidence thing?
Uncle Gary loves the Peniche.
When it's up it looks so groomed, manscaped even; a thing of beauty.
Great viewing, looks hard.
I love the smell of Peniche in the morning...
Hopefully not Uncle Gary's although I've heard his Peniche smells a bit like a fish factory!
Peniche is great, some really great rides go down there.
For those of you who aren't across the length and girth I've drawn you a map:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/135972760@N03/shares/x651tL
(looks like you'll need to copy and paste the link unless an admin can make it work)
Just look at that Peniche!
I love how it really stands tall amongst the surrounding coastline.
Stunet/Craig/Ben - any advice on fixing my link above? The good folks of swellnet are missing in opportunity to be better informed about the contest site.
I know the world title is about being the best surfer in all conditions, but....
Owen in his interview summed it up perfectly "I'm pissed off"......"it's 1ft out there....."
Commentary keeps quoting swell, swell, swell that isn't there, fun by summer Bondi standards but not world championship quality surf
With so much swell coming, and apparently so many locations then can hold it, I'm perplexed by today's green light. With three out of four world title surfers donning a vest I'd thought they'd do them the service of waiting.
No surprise Owen Wright is pissed off. One foot closeouts against a wildcard Brazilian bantamweight with ADHD, he never stood a chance
Atrocious.
Foxtel has dropped it for some other dirge.
I don't blame them.
At least Ricardo won!
Commisioner Perrow what the fuck is going on !
Is someone higher ranked than you in the WSL making these calls ?
Per row doesn't appear to be there.
Travis Logie is making the calls.
With good swell forecast why bother holding heats in shit waves? Not worth watching and must be extremely disapointing for those competing.
Time to pull up stumps and get the search event rolling again?
Mick gone
WSL would be pissed with Kelly on film voicing his opinion that he thought Mick should have won the heat
With the continued promise of swell, I wonder if a conspiracy from WSL to run event in shit surf to knock out some big names and suit the smaller wave surfers
The only people benefiting are the locals in being able to watch a weekend of pros surfing their beachy
No forecast is for xl swell and Westerly wind so they have to run. Its pretty good waves this arvo. Amazing day for the blue shirts. Big heat now for Medina. If he wins peniche he gets yellow jersey
6 mathematical contenders going into pipe from rough calcs? Judging by form and pipe ability, medina must be looking pretty menacing in the rear view mirror.
Scratch that, I don't think Julian can clinch it even if everything falls his way, 200 points short at least
That taking into account his worst two scores dropped?
Yeah, accounted for that but incorrectly took 1750 from Jw (missed his early exit at rio), so still the 6 in contention. Thanks for the pickup stunet, pipeline looking very interesting, though admittedly Julian and Owen need a lot to go their way
After watching the 4 scoring rides from Micks Rd3 heat Id have to agree with Kelly - was judged atrociously.
I'm just as perplexed as Stu on them running when there's big swell coming. So what if there's strong on shores, these are the best in world and they love it and it's what we want. AND definitely conspiracy with Mick losing - no ones watching anyway but imagine Pipeline if the world title is already decided before - then less than no one would watch - Think about that! We all know they need Brazilian to win again and what about an analysis of Mason Ho's endless wildcards just like Dane. Jack Robinson should have been wild carded.
There was some unbelievable surfing going down in those heats from micks onwards, everyone just upping the ante and going big (all thanks to God). Dunno about a conspiracy but Definitely some suss calls by the judges most notably for me was Nat youngs 8.83. Almost felt for ADS when he went down..... Almost.
Yes but we still think the surfing will be much better when it's victory at sea raging onshore, and the Medina win will be better for WSL audience.
Or why dont they just make it fucken mobile so they can go find a break thats getting some swell. Aka Mick video just after his loss.
Fuck watching Gabs do his poo-stance air reverses in 2-3 ft close-outs when there is 6ft barrels and some big walls to do some real turns on just around the corner.
But i agree, the need relevance for the pipe contest, bet you bottom dollar the final at pipe will decide the World Title, the WSL is just a big fucken soap opera and loosing fans very very quickly.
Totally agree. Watching mason ho win with one trick at this level is pathetic. Then in the next round he was jumping around falling off his board. I can watch that at my local break. They blew it big time.
wsl commentary a joke
all gagged incl surfers so no one can speak out about shit conditions when Owen and Julian got knocked . my home beach sat was 10 times better! Julian is heard asking when being interviewed "is this being filmed" . Once he knew it was he shut up.
The surfers are loosing some credibility but im sure a suspect a reply "don't bite the hand that feeds you"!1
Where's Bobby Martinez when you need him?
exactly!! they are all puppets!
I suspect quite a few might retire this yr . tired of where it is ALL heading? CJ TAJ . PARKO. BEDE, ACE KAI???
PLEASE TAKE POTTZ, JOEY AND BLACKLEY WITH YOU
Off for the day.....and the comp is mobile tomorrow according to the deputy.
Fellas are riiiiiiipping this wedge.
Radical lip play.
Exciting.
Ferreira is unbelievable.
Can someone, anyone , on the webcast - Man or woman - please refer to people as people rather than humans.
That shit was already old last year.
humans in the planet of the galaxy
Italo sure made it look easy, toying with a couple of those nuggets, I'd like to see the damage an uninjured jordy could inflict on a few wedges like those...
How's the forecast!? Should be pumping waves for a good number of days after the comp finishes.
The WSL aren't having much luck!
Serves them right for trying to turn the surfing into a mainstream NBA or NFL game.
Could be an ugly end to it. Pump, pump, pop, brilliant viewing. Not sure what they can do bearing in mind the gear they need and power to run one of these shows. I love motogp which I can watch free to air however if I go to the motogp website and try to do anything it costs a bucket load. In some ways we don't know how lucky we are to be able to watch the best comp surfers in action for free, just a real pity it isn't always pumping. Needs some real lateral thought on this one which the key is mobility and flexibility and everything else needs to be on the chopping block. The circus that goes on a Bells is a waste of money and most of it is for the hangers on anyway. Lean and mean is the way to go.
Craig, do you think they'll run today or tomorrow?
Latest update shows winds looking pretty unfavourable tomorrow and they've got a very light cross off this morning.
It's a pity they don't have Sunday and monday to run.