The Punters Club - Rio Pro 2015

Steve Harrison
Form Guide

Men’s Oi Rio Pro – May 11 - 22

Pre-Event Surf Forecast

The good news is the contest should start on Day 1 of the waiting period with clean three to four foot waves out of the south. Swellnet forecaster Craig Brokensha says that bigger surf is expected over the following days as the south swell reaches a peak, along with a new south-east swell from Wednesday that should generate four to five foot surf, ahead of an easing trend from Thursday afternoon onwards. Besides Tuesday and Wednesday, winds are generally looking favourable.

The bad news is defending Rio Men’s Champ Michel Bourez and 2014 Women’s World Champion Stephanie Gilmore have withdrawn from the event due to injury. 

The fourth stop on the WSL 2015 Men’s and Women’s Championship Tour at Brazil has all of a sudden gained added interest due to Adriano de Souza’s success on the Australian leg of the tour. De Souza is the only surfer with three keepers after the first three events and will go into Brazil as one of the favourites with plenty of confidence. If De Souza wins Brazil or finishes in the Semi Finals or better he will put himself in a very solid position for a World Title and it’s still early days. De Souza won Brazil in 2011. Harro's Pick – Top 3

The Brazilian storm will have plenty of support on home soil with Filipe Toledo coming in hot after finishing on top of a stacked field at the Oakley Lowers Pro. Widely considered the best small wave surfer in the world, Toledo will be the man to beat with the forecast showing waves in the small to medium range. Harro's Pick – 2nd

Defending World Champ Gabriel Medina will be on the hunt for a big result after a slow start to the year that already includes two throw aways. The support for Medina will be next level as it will be the first time in the sports history a Brazilian World Champion will be competing in front of a home crowd. Harro's Pick – Top 3

Brazil last year was not a good result for Mick Fanning, in fact it was his worst, posting a 25th. As mentioned earlier it’s only early days in regards to the World Title race but Fanning will be full aware of De Souza’s big lead in the ratings and will be looking to narrow the margin. Fanning’s form in small to medium waves is the best finishing 5th or better 5 times from his last 6 starts. Harro's Pick – Top 5

Julian Wilson seems to have turned a corner since winning Pipe last year, which he has backed up with a 2nd at Snapper and a 5th at Margies. Wilson’s aerial game is world class, which will prove the difference between good and excellent scores in Brazil. Wilson is a proven performer in all size waves and will put himself in the World Title conversation with a solid result in Brazil. Harro's Pick – Top 5 

Nat Young is in career best form coming off two 3rd place finishes. The Santa Cruz powerhouse is currently the world’s best goofy footer, which might be a massive advantage in Brazil. Young’s backhand snap is powerful and tight which brings a point of difference when judges are dropping scores in comparison to the natural footers front side wraps. Young will be eager to surf a few waves on his forehand in Rio showcasing his skills in the barrel and above the lip. Besides Young, Brazilian Miguel Pupo is the only other goofy footer to make the Semi’s so far this year. Harro's Pick – Top 5

Lets hope John John Florence has awoken from his slumber after losing the final at Margies. JJF had a sluggish start to the year until he rose above the pack laying down some amazing performances in the West. John’s first win on the Championship Tour was in Brazil back in 2012, so if he doesn’t fall off he should be standing on stage at the end of the event. Harro's​ Pick – Winner

Other Contenders

Taj Burrow – finished 3rd in Brazil last year and coming off a win in Bali. 
Kelly Slater – can never be ruled out but hasn’t won a CT since 2013. 
Josh Kerr – is one of the best above the lip and striving for his first CT victory. 
Jordy Smith – won Brazil in 2013, will be hungry to compete after having to withdraw from Margies with injury. 

Roughies

Kolohe Andino – finished 2nd in Brazil last year, won Aus. Open this year in small to medium beach break waves. 
Jeremy Flores – finished 2nd at the Oakley Lowers Pro, the new Traktors look good under his feet.
Glenn Hall – upset Medina this year at Snapper, small wave specialist. 
Italo Ferreira – great air game in small waves, best of the rookies so far this year.

Bubble Boys

C.J. Hobgood is the only surfer not to make a heat in the first three events. 
Kai Otton, Adrian Buchan, Adam Melling and Matt Banting will also be looking for a big result in Brazil to relieve the bubble pressure. 

Wildcards

Alejo Muniz – replaces Michel Bourez, currently highest ranked QS surfer
David do Carmo – Local Wildcard
Wildcard 3 – Highest ranked QS surfer after Quiksilver Pro Saquarema 

Scratchings

Michel Bourez – incurred broken fingers and vertebrae surfing Teahupoo, out for 6 - 8 weeks

Women’s Oi Rio Pro – May 11 - 22

Carissa Moore is without doubt the best female surfer in the world right now registering three wins and a 2nd in the last four CT events. Carissa won Brazil in 2011 and has since posted a 2nd and two 3rd placings. With Stephanie Gilmore pulling out of Brazil due to injury another win for Carissa would put her in the box seat for the World Title. Harro's Pick – 2nd

Sally Fitzgibbons has the runs on the board in Brazil with two wins and two 2nd placings over the past four years. Sally’s form in Brazil suggests she is the one to beat and without Steph in the draw Carissa will be watching Sally all the way. Coming off two 3rd placings Sally will be determined to raise the winner’s trophy and claw back Carissa’s lead in the rankings. Harro's Pick - Winner

Courtney Conlogue will be fired up for Brazil after taking down Carissa in the Final at Margies. Courtney has a powerful front side wrap that could carry her deep into the draw if the swell stays up. Courtney missed Brazil last year so it will be interesting to see if she can match the small wave repertoire of Carissa, Tyler and Sally on her backhand. Harro's Pick – Top 3

Tyler Wright won Brazil in 2013 and along with Courtney will be hoping for a little grunt in the swell. Tyler has all the moves and doesn’t hold back which makes her a dangerous competitor. With the ability to launch big airs and a great tube rider the conditions in Brazil suit Tyler’s aggressive approach. Harro's Pick – Top 3 

Other Contenders

Lakey Peterson’s contest act is fast improving. Lakey finished 3rd in Brazil last year and isn’t afraid to go above the lip.
Silvana Lima will be pumped up by the crowd support and will no doubt go for the big air rev manoeuvres which will please the judges. 

Roughies

Coco Ho placed 2nd in Brazil in 2012. Small wave game is fast and snappy.
Tatiana Western-Webb is on the rise and is dangerous in all conditions. Tatiana is very focused and has a great contest act. 

Bubble Girls

Laura Enever is yet to make a heat on this years CT. Laura won the AUS Open in small to medium beach break waves so conditions should suit her in Brazil.
Sage Erickson also is yet to make a heat on this years CT. Sage is improving at this level, random beach break peaks could bring her some much needed luck.  

Wildcards 

Keely Andrews – replaces Stephanie Gilmore, first reserve for Women’s CT on the back of 2014 QS Rankings.
Luana Coutinho – Local Wildcard

Scratchings

Stephanie Gilmore – Suffered knee injury at Margies, indefinite.

Comments

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Friday, 8 May 2015 at 4:51pm

geez your covering your bases Harro, 7 guys in the top 5?

love Sally fitz but the top the other girls way more fluid. Reckon Silvana Lima dark horsey

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 8 May 2015 at 5:07pm

Ha! Well spotted Mick.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 8 May 2015 at 5:17pm

I reckon Ace Buchan for a top 5 finish as he knows he needs to step up. Brazil hasn't actually been kind to him in the past.

Either Medina or Kelly to win. Toledo top 5 too.

I reckon JJ will be out by the third, possibly 5th round. Too many surfers in that group that do well in small beachies. If it was 8ft, different story.

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Friday, 8 May 2015 at 5:19pm

Mick, 2 x surfers finish equal 3rd and 4 x surfers finish equal 5th.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Friday, 8 May 2015 at 6:16pm

nice combination of maneoverures speed power flow.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 8 May 2015 at 6:35pm

I believe he's building a house.

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Friday, 8 May 2015 at 7:01pm

Or could be dropping anchor with priority!

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 8 May 2015 at 7:34pm

With a check turn to tag the next section.

BenPugsley's picture
BenPugsley's picture
BenPugsley Monday, 11 May 2015 at 1:00pm

WTF is a credit card air? OR a rocknroll floater? these guys just make shit up! Oh yeah, 'packing the end section?' WTF

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Monday, 11 May 2015 at 1:35pm

Don't forget the highline wrap!

maxe's picture
maxe's picture
maxe Friday, 8 May 2015 at 5:55pm

Ha Ha, I expect a huge upset seeing you didn't mention Wilko, Wilko for the win!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 8 May 2015 at 6:44pm

I can't go past felipe.
Will dominate every round and froth on the home crowd.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Friday, 8 May 2015 at 7:45pm

Alejo be dangerous too, very impressive his form in Manly, won in Newcastle beachies, form outside the ring was great too - cleaned up with the ladies.

BenPugsley's picture
BenPugsley's picture
BenPugsley Monday, 11 May 2015 at 1:02pm

FreddyP - didn't he win in Sydney? he was 'on-point' right up until that heat at the goldy where he forgot to take off, and then assaulted a rock.

saltyone's picture
saltyone's picture
saltyone Monday, 11 May 2015 at 1:34pm

I thought Kelly wasn't doing Rio this year??

ashwitty's picture
ashwitty's picture
ashwitty Monday, 11 May 2015 at 2:12pm

At $67 Matt Banting is worth a few bob. He's great in smaller waves going left and right. I've put most of my investment into Nat. Outside of ADS he seems the most hungry to win. Mick just as a cover bet.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 11:49am
ashwitty wrote:

At $67 Matt Banting is worth a few bob. He's great in smaller waves going left and right

What's he like in straight-handers? :D

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Monday, 11 May 2015 at 3:36pm

Yes Banting smashed the QS last year so should be dangerous in Brazil.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 12 May 2015 at 8:37am

Jeremy Flores has come second in two QS 10,000s (what were called Primes) and looked incredibly good in the all three CTs - scored a 25th at Snapper but was beaten by just 0.3 of a point by Kolohe, scored 9th in the other two.

In my estimation he's one of a handful of guys who look way better than the surfers they were in 2014. The other obvious one is Filipe Toldeo.

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Tuesday, 12 May 2015 at 10:08am

J Flo has changed boards, now riding JS's, which has made a massive difference.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Tuesday, 12 May 2015 at 10:23pm

Kelly on another level, looks like he will combo the entire round 1.

Shame Turpel and Pottz are back in the box, was enjoying Stanfield and Ross Williams.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 7:16am

Watched for 20 mins last night (just after it started) but I didn't see anything other than short closeouts. Did it get any better?

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 8:37am

It did get better Ben - the best event WCT I've seen in Brazil for ages. Short punchy rides and plenty of barrels. Heat scores in 15+ range. Some heats got skunked but some heats pumped. Not unlike France. The wind stayed good most/all of the day too - I thought it was forecast to be onshore??

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 8:47am

Junky beach break later in the day for the girls. Punchy but not many holding up!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 10:10am

Just didn't have the stamina to stay up late and wade through heats with crappy waves (and you never know if/when it'll improve). Seen a few highlight vids on the WSL's FB feed this morning, those A-frames did look pretty tasty. 

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 11:04am

The low generating the SE swell has hung a little further west than initially forecast, so winds took a turn for the better. This evening still looks a little dicey but after that nice and offshore each morning.

ashwitty's picture
ashwitty's picture
ashwitty Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 10:16am

ADS was on fire last night. I'm surprised Filipe was given a near perfect score on his backside reverse. It was an incredible manoeuvre, no doubt. But this guy has these moves on dial. Imagine FT going through every round punting like that on relatively shitty waves. Matty Banting was impressive/lucky in his heat and I hope he can take that all the way through.

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 11:40am

Dangerous Rd 2 for a couple in these conditions!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 13 May 2015 at 11:53am

Shame that trough/low isn't aimed very well towards Rio. Still, we are still on track for a strong pulse of SE swell from it over the coming days and winds should be locally light ahead of a developing E/NE flow later in week. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 16 May 2015 at 7:12am

Good choice with Matt Banting, Ash!

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Saturday, 16 May 2015 at 7:55am

An Aussie guaranteed in the final with all 4 remaining Aussies on same side of the draw.

top-to-bottom-bells's picture
top-to-bottom-bells's picture
top-to-bottom-bells Saturday, 16 May 2015 at 8:13am

Matt Banting might feel hard done by in his heat against Big Ric Christie - an 8 for a big hands free rev with tail tweaked and clean land? - but he's gunna have to watch himself during post match interviews. He almost did a Gabriel calling the score he got a joke and you could sense he was ready to spit the dummy. No questioning his competitive fire but maybe stay away from microphones after a big loss?