The United States(!) of A
I'd suggest Russia not invading Ukraine in 2022, because that has caused Finland and Sweden to join NATO, thus greatly expanding Russia's borders with new NATO, and not non-aligned, powers.
There'd also be nearly a million casualties on both sides that didn't happen.
velocityjohnno wrote:There'd also be nearly a million casualties on both sides that didn't happen.
Cannot argue with you there, but they did invade.
Where to now?
Without USA support, the war is over rightly or wrongly.
andy-mac wrote:etarip wrote:andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
It's a NATO war against Russia and France is part of NATO
This is a particularly retarded take. Always has been. Nothing ‘forced’ Russia to invade Ukraine in 2014, or 2022. Nothing is keeping Russia in Ukraine now.
It’s a land, population and resource grab.Well there are some who would argue against your view with some pretty strong evidence to back it up.
I've mentioned a few previously....
There are many more.
I’ve read most of them. And the counter-arguments. And the counter-counter arguments.
There’s fuck all ‘evidence’ to back it up. there’s interpretations of actions of States, whether under the auspices of a military alliance or not, but there’s no ‘evidence’.
as an example; you might view the Biden / Sullivan strategy in Ukraine post Feb 2022 in a number of ways. but they're all interpretations unless you have access to the strategy documents - (which I'm guessing you don't?)
My view, and i've articulated this a few times, is that the West had actually given Ukraine up for gone. Russia was expected to achieve their SMO objectives. When the reality of the failure of the Russian plan became apparent (due to Ukranian resistance and Russian incompetence) they were faced with a very different environment from what they expected. Almost everything since then has been reactionary- and heavily influenced by a fear of precipitating a Russian defeat and/or escalation to use of nuclear weapons. They’ve influenced Ukrainian actions significantly to avoid this (cutting off supplies at critical junctures; threatening to cut Intel and technical support at others). Seems incongruous with a careful strategy of provocation aimed at bringing down the Russian state?
Why don’t they want a Russian defeat? A clear looming Russian defeat could mean a number of things. Internal turmoil, breakaway republics Because, and this theory is pretty apparent, they actually want a number of geographically contiguous counter-weights to China - India and Russia. A fragmented Russia means easy pickings for China, potentially allowing the PRC secure resources that insulate them from pressures and vulnerabilities that might otherwise dissuade them from undertaking actions in Asia and the Pacific that are considered inimical to US interests. What they did want is Russia to acccept that they were unable to achieve their objective through military force, find a way to save face and go back to dealing with these issues through diplomacy, espionage and subversion. Which is all far more manageable.
Another interpretation for the actions of the Biden administration is that they are actively trying to avoid Russia becoming a vassal state of the PRC - which is probably failing. The Trump admin approach is far less nuanced of course. And that also relies on Russia wanting that.
Anyway. I could go into more detail but the missus needs me in the garden planting the excessive amount of plants that she bought.
zelensky fucked up really, the dudes got balls, cause, and determination. but he tried his usual big man in little shoes routine and it didn't work...
ie. every time he gets something, he always publicly shames those giving him stuff into giving him more at the press conference
every time... Its yes thank you very much for this, but we cannot go on without that...
we cannot win without a,b, or c... be it bombs, tanks, air cover, permissions... bodies...
it's been a very successful tactic for him, but not with donny... and that's where he fucked up...
fucked up for him and ukraime, but also exposed everyone's little poker face and poker game
and this is the key, there's shit you just don't do in front of the cameras, but it, he did
anyway, my take is donny doesn't really plan to abandon ukraine, but little vlod just pushed too hard, and in the process exposed donny, and the world...
bottom line is, the war cannot continue indefinitely without bodies, donny don't wanna send bodies... so it's largely up to europe...
europe are now simply paying the price for skimping on their own security and NATO for decades, and now must pay...
if they wish to..
they rode amerca's back and big stick for far too long, all whilst bagging america at every opportunity...
andy-mac wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:There'd also be nearly a million casualties on both sides that didn't happen.
Cannot argue with you there, but they did invade.
Where to now?
Without USA support, the war is over rightly or wrongly.
And I agree with you that NATO adding members since the 1990s has threatened Russia (and was/may have been promised not to occur). Personally I'd rather be friends with Russia and Russians as they are awesome people, it's a pity the policy has gone the other way.
velocityjohnno wrote:andy-mac wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:There'd also be nearly a million casualties on both sides that didn't happen.
Cannot argue with you there, but they did invade.
Where to now?
Without USA support, the war is over rightly or wrongly.
And I agree with you that NATO adding members since the 1990s has threatened Russia (and was/may have been promised not to occur). Personally I'd rather be friends with Russia and Russians as they are awesome people, it's a pity the policy has gone the other way.
largely due to (dems) domestic political purposes
it's a disgrace it's come to this
talking is better than not...
anyone at all talking other than donny would be better
& Etarip, thanks for the post, got a bit of an inkling of what is being thought about 'inside the tent' with that, cheers.
“ europe are now simply paying the price for skimping on their own security and NATO for decades, and now must pay...
if they wish to..
they rode amerca's back and big stick for far too long, all whilst bagging america at every opportunity...”
I think this is overplayed a lot. I mean, it’s not wrong but to characterise it as only in Europe’s interest is a little simplistic.
The US effectively ‘rented’ Europe through this process, and largely eliminated them as a potential geopolitical rival / competitor / dissident for major issues. They got diplomatic free passes for decades. Minor protests / squabbles aside.
Both sides took it for granted though.
A couple of things have really brought it to light. Key among this is Europe’s relationship with China and the clear indications that major Euro powers are hedging their bets. Europe has been pretty ambivalent about Taiwan and other US-Asia issues, much to the chagrin of successive administrations. Why is Europe ambivalent? Because they recognise that almost none of them have any capacity for force projection. The US took on the role of the RN after Suez - the last time European powers tried swing pipes geostrategically. Which has been a situation that has served US interests very well for decades!
And the offset for the US has been a Europe that is required to integrate their anemic forces into US plans and structures - cheapening their own defence investments - in order to counter what was (and is) a real threat, Russia.
To present this as free-riding is a little shallow. It went both ways. It’s just that shit has changed. China is now the key risk to the US-Western led global order.
Anyway, Kotkin’s appearances on this podcast are always enlightening. Don’t agree with everything he says, but it’s pretty solid.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/school-of-war/id1589160645?i=10006...
Final thought - the US might not get what it (thinks it) wants out of this. They would have been better requesting specific investments in collective defence than arbitrary funding increases.
velocityjohnno wrote:& Etarip, thanks for the post, got a bit of an inkling of what is being thought about 'inside the tent' with that, cheers.
No worries. To be clear - that’s just my strategic spitballing after watching this shitshow for the last 8 years. No particular insights - other than I have a sense of how people think at those levels
good insights above etarip
simplistic is what I do...
it really comes down to ideology though doesn't it?
europe fully bought into... 'the end of history' thinking
they also fully submitted to the... 'china is the new super power, and that is inevitable... and that is that...' ...thinking didn't they?
(much like us)
bottom line is, these doctrines being the basis of all western thought, across politics, universities, military, business, and pretty much every geo-political decision has left us all vulnerable
and the world unstable
it's decades of neglect and denial across the board
all whilst ' the hawks' were dismissed and belittled...
covid was the wake up face slap, that came way too late... and the resistance to change is still strong... 5 years on!
"...To present this as free-riding is a little shallow. It went both ways. It’s just that shit has changed. China is the key risk to the US-Western led global order..."
trump seems to know and accept this much more than the democrats, ...hence his tendencies to keep the 'powder dry', resources intact, and fortify closer to home
he talks of an iron dome like system protecting america - which all sounds a bit george bushy, star warsy, war mongery to me - initially...
but perhaps not so stupid...
he's a spheres of influence guy, and europe ain't his sphere, hopefully we are...
The Trump , Vance , Zelenskyy meeting , definitely looked like a Trump , Vance , Putin
Pile on of Zelenskyy.
Trump knew he had all the cards and decided to humiliate Zelenskyy while he had the chance, backed up by his lap dog Vance .
Zelenskyy was in a powerless position and basically had to take the bullying by the other weak strong men.
Senator Adam Schiff gives his opinion of the meeting.
I think the Kotkin interview will resonate with you syppo.
The issue with spheres of influence is that we aren’t in the geographical sphere of influence! At all. Might is right delineation:
- Russia: Eurasia - McKinder was right!
- USA: Western hemisphere - Monroe redux!
- China: Asia - Hello Middle Kingdom!
Conflict at the margins. I don’t know if we would make it onto the list of countries worth fighting for - especially if the US doesn’t plan on supporting any of its Asian partners / allies to our north.
As for investment in IAMD (integrated Air and Missile Defence - iron dome). It is far easier to achieve in a small, densely populated country with a couple of cities than across an entire continent. Iron Dome is excellent at shooting down missiles and rockets fired from Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Iran. But it has its limitations.
.
.
seems about right to me @etarip, tell your lads dad got a six and out on his surf site. Donald and Jim just look weak as piss, little boys mocking Volod's country while bombs are falling. makes Biden look like a strong, magnanimous leader (no easy feat) for simply mucking in without blackmail just cos it was the right thing to do. What a cheap set up that pathetic telly display was. And of course Volod felt ambushed and kept saying 'it's serious, it's not a game' over Trump repeating 'you have no cards'. I reckon that'll decide the last of the reasonable Donald fence-sitters.
etarip wrote:andy-mac wrote:etarip wrote:andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
It's a NATO war against Russia and France is part of NATO
This is a particularly retarded take. Always has been. Nothing ‘forced’ Russia to invade Ukraine in 2014, or 2022. Nothing is keeping Russia in Ukraine now.
It’s a land, population and resource grab.Well there are some who would argue against your view with some pretty strong evidence to back it up.
I've mentioned a few previously....
There are many more.I’ve read most of them. And the counter-arguments. And the counter-counter arguments.
There’s fuck all ‘evidence’ to back it up. there’s interpretations of actions of States, whether under the auspices of a military alliance or not, but there’s no ‘evidence’.
as an example; you might view the Biden / Sullivan strategy in Ukraine post Feb 2022 in a number of ways. but they're all interpretations unless you have access to the strategy documents - (which I'm guessing you don't?)
My view, and i've articulated this a few times, is that the West had actually given Ukraine up for gone. Russia was expected to achieve their SMO objectives. When the reality of the failure of the Russian plan became apparent (due to Ukranian resistance and Russian incompetence) they were faced with a very different environment from what they expected. Almost everything since then has been reactionary- and heavily influenced by a fear of precipitating a Russian defeat and/or escalation to use of nuclear weapons. They’ve influenced Ukrainian actions significantly to avoid this (cutting off supplies at critical junctures; threatening to cut Intel and technical support at others). Seems incongruous with a careful strategy of provocation aimed at bringing down the Russian state?Why don’t they want a Russian defeat? A clear looming Russian defeat could mean a number of things. Internal turmoil, breakaway republics Because, and this theory is pretty apparent, they actually want a number of geographically contiguous counter-weights to China - India and Russia. A fragmented Russia means easy pickings for China, potentially allowing the PRC secure resources that insulate them from pressures and vulnerabilities that might otherwise dissuade them from undertaking actions in Asia and the Pacific that are considered inimical to US interests. What they did want is Russia to acccept that they were unable to achieve their objective through military force, find a way to save face and go back to dealing with these issues through diplomacy, espionage and subversion. Which is all far more manageable.
Another interpretation for the actions of the Biden administration is that they are actively trying to avoid Russia becoming a vassal state of the PRC - which is probably failing. The Trump admin approach is far less nuanced of course. And that also relies on Russia wanting that.
Anyway. I could go into more detail but the missus needs me in the garden planting the excessive amount of plants that she bought.
No definitively no access to strategy docs.
Enjoy your plant potting.
Europe, rise up!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-outburst-euro...
Apparently a security conference in London on Sunday that will be the most significant since Yalta.
"The position of Prussia in Germany will not be determined by its liberalism but by its power ... Prussia must concentrate its strength and hold it for the favourable moment, which has already come and gone several times. Since the treaties of Vienna, our frontiers have been ill-designed for a healthy body politic. Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided—that was the great mistake of 1848 and 1849—but by iron and blood."
-Otto von Bismark
If Australia wants to survive this century as the nation it is and has been, it's time now to step up and become beyond a middle power. Think of an Echidna, do you really want to provoke that? It's got way too many barbs to be worth you poking it.
I think people need to cool off a bit. Some are calling Zelensky ‘the leader of the free world’. Trump is crazy, we know that. But, that doesn’t mean the other one is some sort of Jesus. Before this war (and still) Ukraine was one of the most backwards, most corrupt places in Europe. It has its own oligarchy in the same way Putin does. No name gangsters got rich overnight through privatisation of state assets in the 90s and 2000s. Only a crazy person would consider this a ‘free’ country and a worthy member of an European Union.
velocityjohnno wrote:Europe, rise up!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-outburst-euro...
Apparently a security conference in London on Sunday that will be the most significant since Yalta.
With what? Everyone’s broke.
Confusion wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
France isn’t being invaded by Russia
They are supporting Ukrainian though
There is a difference.
I will let you in on a little secret jeffy, Canada, Mexico , Greenland & Panama aren’t being invaded by the US either , even though your Masterbating The Naive have you believing otherwise . If you are needing more billions of dollars and weapons then how you negotiate with the parties involved is important to getting your needs met . Trump needs his ego massaged and Zelenskyy didn’t play that game very well .
yup @Supa, you just need to tell him a king really wants him to visit. easy as. that's the world in balance as far as Donald is concerned.
Anyone remember that time that the US sold out the recently ‘decolonized from Japan’ Vietnam so that France could reestablish its colonial empire in Indochina, with the trade off that France came into counterbalance Russian / Warsaw Pact strength in Europe?
And how that worked out.
flollo wrote:With what? Everyone’s broke.
Oh, they have a couple of ideas for how:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/28/britain-new-world-order-trum...
OK, just as an aside, as I've put in a couple of UK links.
England/UK foreign policy, the last 500 ("ruthless power politics") years.
1. Do not allow one power to dominate continental Europe
2. If it means you always support the underdog (eg Portugal, Belgium, Poland, Ukraine) so be it.
3. You are an island nation so have strong sea power.
Actually their alliance with Portugal is the oldest in the world, since 1386.
Project 2025
[Censor Climate Change] > DRILL DRILL DRILL > Gut NOAA & Flog off subscriptions
1807-2025 Weather Data wiped...Burn The Weather Charts!
Trump : "Press the Button Elon...Wipe Out The Weather, Stop the Earth Spinning & Make it Flat Again!"
https://www.surfer.com/news/noaa-fires-hundreds-of-staff-expect-your-sur...
Musk wipes out Weather Gods & brags that Space X can fuel Bigger Stronger Hurricanes than NOAA.
Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
France isn’t being invaded by Russia
They are supporting Ukrainian though
There is a difference.I will let you in on a little secret jeffy, Canada, Mexico , Greenland & Panama aren’t being invaded by the US either , even though your Masterbating The Naive have you believing otherwise . If you are needing more billions of dollars and weapons then how you negotiate with the parties involved is important to getting your needs met . Trump needs his ego massaged and Zelenskyy didn’t play that game very well .
Well if you admit you are too dumb to read a swell chart. , you might have missed some news weeks back, and your book on psychology is probably even harder to comprehend than a swell chart !
More welcome news for the Kremlin:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-russia-hacking-cyb...
and then there's this, uncanny:
https://images.spot.im/image/upload/v200/fbbb438c-25af-46ca-a0e3-bb12db2...
Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
France isn’t being invaded by Russia
They are supporting Ukrainian though
There is a difference.I will let you in on a little secret jeffy, Canada, Mexico , Greenland & Panama aren’t being invaded by the US either , even though your Masterbating The Naive have you believing otherwise . If you are needing more billions of dollars and weapons then how you negotiate with the parties involved is important to getting your needs met . Trump needs his ego massaged and Zelenskyy didn’t play that game very well .
Well if you admit you are too dumb to read a swell chart. , you might have missed some news weeks back, and your book on psychology is probably even harder to comprehend than a swell chart !
Yep I happily admit that when it comes to reading a swell chart and getting an accurate size of swell in wave size , period, precise direction , secondary swells and duration, I’m a dummy and it’s why I prescribe to swellnet , you on the other hand need a Masterbating The Naive source for all things Trump & Musk . Who are you going to volunteer for when the invasion starts ? Your news weeks back , never happened, you’re delusional, too many bowls of fruit loops .
velocityjohnno wrote:More welcome news for the Kremlin:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-russia-hacking-cyb...
Maybe Putin does have some naughty video of Trump after all.....
Epstein might not be the only one....
Who knows.....
Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:flollo wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Zelenski’s blunder in that video, was in my opinion, losing his cool and attempting to speak while Trump was speaking . We all know Trump loves an audience and when America is watching, he wants to come across as “ he’s the man “ . Trump doesn’t see Zelenski as having too many options and with Zelenski reluctant to sign over minerals without guaranteed protection, then Trump is happy to belittle him in front of the world to show “ who’s the boss “ . Zelenski needs to slow down and think very carefully before responding to Trump, otherwise he sets himself up to be taken down. Look at how Macron handles Trump , very different approach. Plenty of Americans would be backing Trump as they see the US is footing the bill for another stupid war .
But France isn’t at war with Russia and nor is Trudeau , who can both afford to stand up to Trump .
France isn’t in war with Russia!? Yeah right. Then why are they financing the war in Ukraine? And talk about it on daily basis?
France isn’t being invaded by Russia
They are supporting Ukrainian though
There is a difference.I will let you in on a little secret jeffy, Canada, Mexico , Greenland & Panama aren’t being invaded by the US either , even though your Masterbating The Naive have you believing otherwise . If you are needing more billions of dollars and weapons then how you negotiate with the parties involved is important to getting your needs met . Trump needs his ego massaged and Zelenskyy didn’t play that game very well .
Well if you admit you are too dumb to read a swell chart. , you might have missed some news weeks back, and your book on psychology is probably even harder to comprehend than a swell chart !
Yep I happily admit that when it comes to reading a swell chart and getting an accurate size of swell in wave size , period, precise direction , secondary swells and duration, I’m a dummy and it’s why I prescribe to swellnet , you on the other hand need a Masterbating The Naive source for all things Trump & Musk . Who are you going to volunteer for when the invasion starts ? Your news weeks back , never happened, you’re delusional, too many bowls of fruit loops .
There you go again, I don’t really want to waste my time “ debating “ with a self confessed dummy.
What happened to your on repeat
“Trump derangement syndrome “ that you heard somewhere?
Now you have another on repeat insult.
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank