The United States(!) of A
indo-dreaming wrote:Big news from the middle east last night.
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/politico/571321?page=101#comment-1017507
Indo at 9:00 last night - “ Look this is the USA thread we are going off topic (Stu will get shitty), ”
Seriously, how this clowns brain works would be a medical mystery..
probably the most inflammatory, insensitive, divisive commenter in the history of Swellnet
Just texting with an Aussie mate in Indiana.
“Everyone here is voting for Trump”
He’s a smart dude. Aeronautical engineer. Married to an American girl. Good with numbers. Doesn’t mind a punt.
*He doesn’t trust the betting odds*
Bear with me on this.
Indiana is a solid Red state. Swung blue for Obama in 08, but back to Red in 12.
538 has Indiana at +11 for Trump.
Polling figures on thehill have +16 for DJT at the start of Sep, but down to +14 at the start of Oct. that doesn’t match the narrative that the momentum has swung to Trump at all, in a place you’d expect it to show…
So, anyway. I think there’s more to it. The gaps between betting odds and polling figures is so off. Whatever partisan polls you look at. Normally they’re consistent with the margin of error. Curious.
Anyone for some trump spunk ?
Supafreak wrote:Anyone for some trump spunk ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAbM8O0J70Y/?igsh=dTliazd5dmYyNHF2
Ya gotta wonder whats going on downstairs because there's nothing going on upstairs.
etarip wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:USA election odds update
Still blowing out
Trump 58.1
Harris 40.9
Odds in all swing states now in Trumps favour(Nevada flipped) and odds increased in Pennsylvania.
They are still all very close though but its still a positive trend.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Betting odds yes, but not polling across the board. Weird, huh? Wonder why that is?
The same trend is seen in polling but just not as a radical change.
I guess the betting odds are changing more because its taking into account the fact Trump is just in front in those important swing states. (I get that its such a small led that its almost irrelevant figure wise, but its still about the trend)
Yes they have Harris polling better nationally, but when Trump won, Hillary was polling way ahead of trump, and when Biden won he was polling even further in front and it became pretty close. (I think betting odds are also taking that into account)
So there is a few scenarios
1. The patterns continues with the polls being off favouring Democrats, which means Trump has a very good chance of winning.
2. Something has changed in the polling system and the polling is correct which means it could go either way being in the margin of era.
3. Something has really changed in the polling system to prevent the era of last few years and now its swung the other way and its not showing Harris as high as she should be, which means she wins.
Why in the past have polls not shown Trumps votes accurately?
I guess the simple explanation is there is a stigma in voting for Trump, so when asked people may just say they are undecided or even say Harris instead.
I dont think that stigma has changed, it's possibly increased if anything.
BTW. Im not saying Trump will win, i dont think anyone knows being so close, im just being positive and kind of stoked on the momentum as want Trump to win.
I am trying to look at news sources etc outside of my algorithm bubble looking at CNN and other left leaning media and im still seeing the same momentum narrative or more so concern.
PS. To all the others silly commenters dissing me above and on the last page, i posted a link to another thread, it's not the same as continuing a heated back and fourth in this thread.
The polls are still reflecting a Harris win.
I think Harris will win the popular vote by a decent margin.
I think Trump has a clear chance thru Electoral College.
I’m not sure that the betting odds are not distorted.
The Stigma of saying U like Trump has changed and he is much more Mainstream , than on his First attempt at winning the Presidency !
The Assassination attempt would have helped .
Guessing the Trumps Polls are showing some improvement , so polls this time , MIGHT be more accurate .
The Weight of Money is the Scale/Poll that I Always take more notice of .
As Stalin said , those that count elections , decide the winner .
Betting People , can be wrong .
etarip wrote:The polls are still reflecting a Harris win.
I think Harris will win the popular vote by a decent margin.
I think Trump has a clear chance thru Electoral College.
I’m not sure that the betting odds are not distorted.
Hilary Clinton was 3 million ahead of Trump in the popular vote 2016. Harris could be 4/5 million + ahead of Trump in the popular vote but still lose.
Pop Down wrote:The Stigma of saying U like Trump has changed and he is much more Mainstream , than on his First attempt at winning the Presidency !
The Assassination attempt would have helped .
Guessing the Trumps Polls are showing some improvement , so polls this time , MIGHT be more accurate .
The Weight of Money is the Scale/Poll that I Always take more notice of .
As Stalin said , those that count elections , decide the winner .
Betting People , can be wrong .
In regard to Stigma
You really think so?
Hmmm i think he was always mainstream.
In 2016 he wasn't viewed that badly, just not taken seriously as having a chance.
2020 lots of media and being president lots of stigma.
But i personally think there is more stigma now to say you are voting for him because of how he rejected the election defeat and capital hill and just law suits etc
Give it 2 / 3 years and no one will admit to voting for Trump.
As you said Indo , Trump got lots of Stigma being President .
He NOW has a Track Record , a Score Board 2 point to .
I am guessing the Good , out trumps the bad again .
If Trump can stop the Ukraine / Russian War in 3 months , 2/3 of people in the US will say they Voted 4 him 2 .
Stop the war in 3 months?
You mean April 2025? That’s more than 6 months away!!! There’s quite a lot going on.
He said 24 hours. Take him at his word.
Not sure if you’ve spoken to many actual US voters? Have you?
I’ve spoken to quite a few in the past year. In the US and here. There’s definitely a stigma. They’re voting for him because they don’t like the current admin. Not because they like Trump. I’ve certainly picked up that much.
It's like a religion. The believers can't see anything but their interpretation of the truth. The 10% undecided and 30% who can't be bothered, realise that it makes f-all difference.
Click watch on YouTube for a dose of reality
Hey Eta
Ok , if Trump can beat my 3 months after getting IN and do it in 24 hours , 4/5 of Voters will say they voted 4 Trump .
As your mates have told U , they ARE voting 4 Trump !!!
His Stigma has changed SO much that they have CHANGED their minds .
Harris is NO worse than Hilary , NO way !
They have seen the bloody Light !
They have gotten Over Trump Syndrome !
That's amazing , I thought it incurable !
I bet they won't admit they have been cured , so Polls won't be affected .
Thanks mate , Trump in a Landslide .
So if this is who’s running the blues, who’s really running the reds ?
^^ “ … our country is the oldest democracy in the world ..”
History will tell a 6 year old otherwise!!
Pop Down wrote:Hey Eta
Ok , if Trump can beat my 3 months after getting IN and do it in 24 hours , 4/5 of Voters will say they voted 4 Trump .
As your mates have told U , they ARE voting 4 Trump !!!
His Stigma has changed SO much that they have CHANGED their minds .
Harris is NO worse than Hilary , NO way !
They have seen the bloody Light !
They have gotten Over Trump Syndrome !
That's amazing , I thought it incurable !
I bet they won't admit they have been cured , so Polls won't be affected .
Thanks mate , Trump in a Landslide .
Great work on trying to change the point I was making. (And not answering the direct question I asked you).
A lot of people voting Republican are holding their nose. Voting in spite of trump, not because of him.
Not gonna happen.
Pop Down wrote:Hey Eta
Ok , if Trump can beat my 3 months after getting IN and do it in 24 hours , 4/5 of Voters will say they voted 4 Trump .
As your mates have told U , they ARE voting 4 Trump !!!
His Stigma has changed SO much that they have CHANGED their minds .
Harris is NO worse than Hilary , NO way !
They have seen the bloody Light !
They have gotten Over Trump Syndrome !
That's amazing , I thought it incurable !
I bet they won't admit they have been cured , so Polls won't be affected .
Thanks mate , Trump in a Landslide .
PD, who are the main players in this WW3? Who will be involved and how will it unfold?
Hey Roady
Do your own research , read some papers , use your own imagination and U write the book on how it will unfold .
U might like to include the 10000 North Koreans that have just joined Russia ?
Eta
U argued against your point and still do .
Your mates , that I have NOT spoken to , now C Trump as Better than the Democratic Option .
I don't talk Politics with Mates much .
No Mate would EVER tell a Mate , they would have liked or intended 2 vote 4 Trump the FIRST time .
I didn't like Trump , but I hated Hilary .
They are telling you this time lol !
Harris is a lot more Electable than Clinton .
Would U like 2 debate that ?
Your mates are voting Trump and U say What is NOT going 2 happen ?
I will tell U what will happen .
If YOUR mates vote 4 Trump , he WILL be President and U can thank your mates !
U can tell them Pop said thanks 2 .
Pop Down wrote:Hey Roady
Do your own research , read some papers , use your own imagination and U write the book on how it will unfold .
U might like to include the 10000 North Koreans that have just joined Russia ?
Eta
U argued against your point and still do .
Your mates , that I have NOT spoken to , now C Trump as Better than the Democratic Option .
I don't talk Politics with Mates much .
No Mate would EVER tell a Mate , they would have like Trump the FIRST time .
NO WAY !
They are telling you this time lol !
Harris is a lot more Electable than Clinton .
Would U like 2 debate that ?
Your mates are voting Trump and U say What is NOT going 2 happen ?
I will tell U what will happen .
If YOUR mates vote 4 Trump , he WILL be President and U can thank your mates !
U can tell them Pop said thanks 2 .
So no answer…?
I ain’t the one posting over and over about a WW3, you are.
My opinion is that there is no WW3 incoming. So, I can’t research something I don’t think is going to happen.
Would be great if you could backup with some more info on the WW3 you say is coming?
What data/info/media are you getting this WW3 belief from?
Pop Down wrote:Hey Roady
Do your own research , read some papers , use your own imagination and U write the book on how it will unfold .
U might like to include the 10000 North Koreans that have just joined Russia ?
Eta
U argued against your point and still do .
Your mates , that I have NOT spoken to , now C Trump as Better than the Democratic Option .
I don't talk Politics with Mates much .
No Mate would EVER tell a Mate , they would have liked or intended 2 vote 4 Trump the FIRST time .
I didn't like Trump , but I hated Hilary .
They are telling you this time lol !
Harris is a lot more Electable than Clinton .
Would U like 2 debate that ?
Your mates are voting Trump and U say What is NOT going 2 happen ?
I will tell U what will happen .
If YOUR mates vote 4 Trump , he WILL be President and U can thank your mates !
U can tell them Pop said thanks 2 .
“Harris is a lot more Electable than Clinton.”
“Would U like 2 debate that ?”
Nothing to debate, I 100% agree.
Trump on Jan 6 Capitol riot.
Ashli Babbitt was killed no one was killed ???
We didn’t have guns they had guns ???
They went in peace ???
That exchange would have lost Trump a heap of votes and convinced undecided voters to not go Trump.
Looks like the Betting odds have been blown out of the Water , by a Bomb of money .
IF reports of a $US30m bet on Poly 4 Trump are True , his odds will blow out as the Bookie Lays off the Bet .
There is still 17 days , 10 hours and 9 minutes , before the Election and Anything can still happen .
What’s the odds on another assassination attempt ? https://www.app.com/story/news/politics/2024/10/16/election-betting-odds...
Ya never know what may happen .
?si=468YUcxXrHHvZh_J Supafreak wrote:So if this is who’s running the blues, who’s really running the reds ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-YTIBVultD/?igsh=cGZ1YzB2MDNuYTc4
Gawd, how far has she fallen. Now just a podcast guest in full cooker mode.
What a far right clown she has become.
This is interesting kind of saying similar things to what i was yesterday.
Watched a bit of the Al Smith charity dinner. It's usually good for a few laughs.
There were some funny roasts in there, a couple in bad taste though too.
Harris copped a bit of a pizzling for the no show.
Don't know why she didn't go, I think she would have been fine in that setting.
But she went with a pre-recorded piece of wtf instead.
Re. debate.
I like the smart lady with the kind eyes, not the oompa loompa with the hate filled eyes.
Unfortunately, the oompaloompa says alot of things that would appeal to idiots.
The question is, what's the proportion of idiots currently residing in the US of A?
tubeshooter wrote:Watched a bit of the Al Smith charity dinner. It's usually good for a few laughs.
There were some funny roasts in there, a couple in bad taste though too.
Harris copped a bit of a pizzling for the no show.
Don't know why she didn't go, I think she would have been fine in that setting.
But she went with a pre-recorded piece of wtf instead.
OMG the stuff Trump sometimes says and get's away with, some of it's pretty funny though.
"OMG the stuff Trump sometimes says and get's away with, some of it's pretty funny though"
I thought it was bloody funny
a bit nasty at times, but some pretty witty comments in there
regarding nasty... fuck it... look at the outrageous shit they say about him...
you reap what you sow
and to be fair, the comments about the absence of kamala (in body) and biden (in mind) were spot on
Trump’s roast of killary last time was pretty full on, Kamala got of lightly . If he wins I sincerely hope he keeps the major promises he’s making . USA definitely needs change and the rest of the world deserves it . Crazy crazy world .
They’re all comfortably Numb
https://youtube.com/shorts/Nclzi0Lyn7c?si=Euqgbu7VpbUxFw53
You’re hoping for their major promise of Ptoject 2025
Yeah that is insane!
The Head of Operations of the UK Labour Party sent Kamala a message that a 100 Red Coats are coming .
They are heading to the Swing States to join the Democrats 2 help fight in these Battle Ground States .
This Foreign Interference is ILLEGAL , but all Gloves are off and legal if fighting Trump .
Funny stuff .
Morning Juliang, Reports from my good mate living in London were that Gilmore was at his best at the Royal Albert Hall last week, no planned tour here thou ..... I see all the PF cover bands and shows that come this way TPFE - NZ and Echoes of PF and its noticeable how popular the music is with members of the Jewish community here in Vicco.
Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:So if this is who’s running the blues, who’s really running the reds ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-YTIBVultD/?igsh=cGZ1YzB2MDNuYTc4
Gawd, how far has she fallen. Now just a podcast guest in full cooker mode.
What a far right clown she has become.
I think that’s a pretty odd take. (By you RK)
soggydog wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:So if this is who’s running the blues, who’s really running the reds ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-YTIBVultD/?igsh=cGZ1YzB2MDNuYTc4
Gawd, how far has she fallen. Now just a podcast guest in full cooker mode.
What a far right clown she has become.
I think that’s a pretty odd take. (By you RK)
Democratic representative. Democratic presidential candidate and campaign.
Now
Conservative political commentator. Campaigns for/with RFK. Campaigns with RFK for Trump. The Dems rejected her so she swung right and now is full maga.
Just desperately trying to stay relevant and grifting for $$.
Hey Roady
How is your research going , making any progress ?
Have a look at Zelensky's Victory Plan .
A few of the smart European Leaders have just described it as the quickest Pathway to WW3 .
Let me know when you catch up and see the Light .
Ukraine is running out of troops and a million have died ( both sides Roady ) .
A bunch of Imams endorsed Harris and expect the followers to follow…it seems the followers are not following and many are Trumpers. They blame the current admin for the ongoing loses of Muslim lives due to Israeli ongoing conflict.
Gawd this thread is boring.
There's more to the USA than politics.
Like comedy.
America has produced some awesome comedians, but the man regarded by many of the greats as the GOAT, and Jerry Seinfeld's favorite stand up comic, was the late great Bernie Mac, So here's a Sunday treat for you boys, Bernie Mac's breakout stand up set from the DefJam comedy special in the early 90's.
Martin Lawrence had appeared just before him and bombed, the crowd got a bit hostile and had boo'd him offstage. Enter Bernie Mac...
couldn't agree more @adam12, I'll let @AW chuck something up about their national parks, but golly, surely the most boring, nothing moment in US history is.. now..? (possibly BECAUSE people there need.. something.. makes for great grifting, all round. punks.)
sypkan wrote:"OMG the stuff Trump sometimes says and get's away with, some of it's pretty funny though"
I thought it was bloody funny
a bit nasty at times, but some pretty witty comments in there
regarding nasty... fuck it... look at the outrageous shit they say about him...
you reap what you sow
and to be fair, the comments about the absence of kamala (in body) and biden (in mind) were spot on
I don't have a degree in people, but you don't have to be Freud or Jung to understand Trump is a socially, emotionally and intellectually immature infant, with more baggage than a FedEx jumbo.
His conduct at the Capitol riots, where he goaded his followers to enter the building shouting "hang Pence" was indicative of someone whose ego was inflated by all the attention while being totally oblivious to the severity of the developing situation. He made no attempt to stop the riots.
That indicates to me, regardless of policies he may promote, he lacks the intellectual capacity to hold the position of President.
Good luck America.
Roadkill wrote:soggydog wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:So if this is who’s running the blues, who’s really running the reds ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-YTIBVultD/?igsh=cGZ1YzB2MDNuYTc4
Gawd, how far has she fallen. Now just a podcast guest in full cooker mode.
What a far right clown she has become.
I think that’s a pretty odd take. (By you RK)
Democratic representative. Democratic presidential candidate and campaign.
Now
Conservative political commentator. Campaigns for/with RFK. Campaigns with RFK for Trump. The Dems rejected her so she swung right and now is full maga.
Just desperately trying to stay relevant and grifting for $$.
Yeah strangely enough i agree with SD.
Go listen to Tulsi interviews from years ago her views aren't new, she has seen it from the inside out and been vocal for years.
I dont agree with her on everything but i think she is a rare genuine poly, sure some of it might be a fk you revenge type thing, but i think its more just wanting to expose things and shake things up thing even if she has to align with those she would probably rather not like Trump.
^^ @a12 @ @b6 the music is so good especially from the south … treme neighbourhood jazz …
https://m.
^ liked the first post, but yeh, this one is cracker..
watching prince charles in the wire was great, I had great expectation of treme, seeing the madam from Deadwood playing another role was fun, a mate hated treme cos the whitey keyboard street busker shat him to tears, but geez there was some info gleaned by people like me, the afro-FNP thing, and the pride, and the french and the music and the gumbo.. all pretty wonderful, and pause for thought about world views and government policy. and how people and politics play, and how people feel if they are not intrinsically part of the process. good series.
Hey Adam 12
Great that you decided to show up and introduce Berni Mac .
The audience , Jerry and U , obviously loved watching the self declared Big Mac , Stand up .
I couldn't understand a bloody Word he said , but his body language is hilarious .
@PopDown,
How you going bud?
I'm still fkd. The back injury not much better. Still in agony, 19 days now, and having to spend a month stuck up in this shitty dirty city hasn't helped. Two more days and my brother is back and I can go home.
Other than death in the family it's been the worst month of my 63 years. I'm crippled and trying to care for the old man when I need a fkn carer myself, can't get a decent sleep, lost my appetite and can't eat, lost a heap of weight, my brother has the most boring house, no FTA TV, just DVD's, I've rewatched the entire Sopranos series, Breaking Bad, all the Richmond GF's, he's got no decent books I haven't already read. So I'm not only in constant pain but I'm bored out of my fkn brains up here.
The local feral population provides a bit of entertainment though. My brother's place backs onto the Clarke St Richmond housos carpark, a lively slice of the local feral and some exotic African wildlife congregate there to drink and do ice and fight each other. Pension day is a highlight. In the month I've been here we've had two stabbings and an arson, one of the tenants went off his nut and set fire to a group of flats. Right now Christy, a 60 something year old drunkard, is wandering around the carpark armed with a kitchen knife, wearing nothing but a singlet, screaming abuse at no one in particular. She's spent the morning dancing on her front steps to loud techno, naked from the waist down, skulling from a bottle of Stones Green Ginger wine, seemed happy enough but it appears her mood has darkened. I'm not ringing the cops, she'll pass out soon.
So as you can see PopD, things have hit the shitter of late for your old mate. I'm trying to stay positive, all things pass, but this one has been a tester for sure.
Hope you are well and I will come back and spend some more time here chatting with the boys when I feel a bit better. I do miss chats with some of the boys here. You've been on fire yourself here lately, good to see. And I did tip in to that deaf kid's GoFundMe, something I know is close to you and Jake's, and @AW's hearts. Good stuff!
adam12 wrote:Gawd this thread is boring.
There's more to the USA than politics.
Like comedy.
America has produced some awesome comedians, but the man regarded by many of the greats as the GOAT, and Jerry Seinfeld's favorite stand up comic, was the late great Bernie Mac, So here's a Sunday treat for you boys, Bernie Mac's breakout stand up set from the DefJam comedy special in the early 90's.
Martin Lawrence had appeared just before him and bombed, the crowd got a bit hostile and had boo'd him offstage. Enter Bernie Mac...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JkPx0gk6LE
Adam12. Hi mate.
Nice you’ve made a cameo, hope you are going alright, sounds like your body is giving you grief.
All the best, good times are a coming.
Basesix is correct, the US have a wonderful National Parks system, well supported
financially, unlike ours.
That was goooooood!,. A bit of humour.
I like it when people talk the truth, tell it how it is.
The US at present and at other times before this, especially politically, well they’re in La La land (kind excuses for Wax24, he a cool dude) it’s all ‘smoke and mirrors’
bullshit personified.
They are becoming a ‘faux nation’. I find it very hard to interpret what any of them stand for in life anymore.
Bullshit, bullshit and more bullshit, it’s just a ‘Punch & Judy Show’
A fake society is the first thing that comes to mind.
Apologies to US citizens who want their country sorted, I just can’t see that happening soon. AW
Edit. Adam12. Good stuff pal, you’re made of the right stuff. That kid will have a great life thanks to indirect folk he doesn’t even know.
For those who couldn’t even part with $5, well, empty life is all I can think of.
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank