COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Spot on Blowin makes no sense at all
“….while the statistics give us a good guide to who they are, many people are more vulnerable than they think.”
Huh? The statistics are a guide? FFS….next you will be claiming that someone should not consider themselves safe from shark attack if they never enter the water. Just because 100% of attacks happen in water we should only use statistics as a guide!!!!! Lololol.
You should really take yourself less seriously. If you did you’d realise how ridiculous the things you say sound to others.
Yeh mate think what you like. You can't argue with the numbers. Infection rates are going to increase. Under 50s are already 36% of ICU beds. So that age group needs to reduce their risk for the benefit of the whole community. You like it both ways. You want to stress that covid is no risk to healthy people then whinge about it being brought to your area by those terrible tourists. Ramble on, change the subject (shark attacks as a comparison to Covid? Whee hoo I never knew shark attacks were infectious ha ha). All the usual nonsense.
The point is this: You have been lied to about this virus since day 1.
The people affected by the virus now are the same people who were affected by the virus when it first emerged ie those with severe underlying health conditions ( predominantly the obese) and the elderly. Doctors know this and would have known this at the outset. They were never seeing masses of young, healthy people dying…..anywhere.
Yet somehow the world started from a place of unsubstantiated irrational panic that this virus was a mass indiscriminate killer which was capable of killing 250,000 Indonesians in one month alone. This was never backed by science, evidence or real world experience. Ever.
As the situation progressed this unhinged and inappropriate initial media and governmental psychosis should have waned. But it didn’t. The goalposts kept shifting and the fear mongering steamrolled on regardless of the reality.
Even to this day there is those deluded souls such as yourself who reject the truth in defence of the never-substantiated lies they were fed.
You’ve just told me that “ The young and healthy shouldn’t delude themselves that they might not all die!!!!!!” despite me showing you that you are factually incorrect. You CHOOSE to remain wedded to the propaganda you’ve swallowed. It’s a medical version of Stockholm Syndrome. I don’t personally care if you run shrieking into your basement to lock the door behind you but please stop spreading lies, bullshit and misinformation on the internet. It’s dangerous. There might be a young person out there reading this and thinking they can’t mix with their friends or join society because you’ve filled their head with lies about some virus which has killed less sub20 year olds in Australia than the flu.
BTW ….I’d really like to see the detailed statistics about those 60 individuals under 50 who are in the ICU. I’d like to know how many of them were already in hospital sick before they tested positive for Covid. I’d like to know how many of them have zero or moderate symptoms of Covid but their positive test lends them as ammunition for the fear mongering.
I’d be surprised if there was a dozen under 50’s in ICU who were there for Covid alone.
Even if there was 60 under 50’s ( probably zero under 30) in the entirety of Australia it completely undermines any narrative that Covid is an existential threat to young, healthy people as we have been told for almost two years and you are still saying.
That’s not misinformation…..it’s a lie.
Mate you are just full of it. 166 ICU cases under 30, as shown in the link I provided. . All cases are clearly stated as specifically covid. You go on and on and on and on and on about the same stuff long after whatever "evidence" you produce has been discredited.
"The point is this: You have been lied to about this virus since day 1."
So you are now accusing my daughter of lying to me? She is the one who tells me what is actually happening in the hospitals as opposed to what is going on in that fantasy world inside your skull. She is the one who points me to the statistics to back up what she sees every day. You are pathetic mate.
Hey blindboy. Do you ever think that in blowin's quieter moments he says to himself "Fuck, I got so many things wrong today on Swellnet, it was kind of embarrassing. I know what will fix it. I will accuse other people of lying"?
Spuds like blowin have fuck all intelligence and even less shame.
If only Vic Stupid had some quieter moments.
phil coorey on insiders...
"just been overseas for the first time in 2 years i can assure people its not scary out there...
a lot of the world is moving on very quickly with covid...
coming home and not having to do quarrantine but not being able to travel to parts of my own country, including my home state... australia looks rather odd..."
pretty much sums it up
the fear game is up
outside of australia...
Fools wish to remain fools only because the truth requires change.
Yep travel is safe......for the double vaccinated.
Blindboy STILL telling lies about the dangers of Covid. Of you are a healthy person and not elderly then Covid was never a serious health threat except unless you were extremely unlucky. More young Australians would get sick from dengue in Bali than seriously ill from Covid. The dangers of riding a motorbike in Asia make the threat from Covid seem insignificant.
The lie is up. The world knows that Covid is not an existential threat.
The propaganda being thrown from every angle is the issue. It's caused divide, its caused irrational thinking, its cause people like vic local and blindboy to be afraid of fresh air or a healthy un jabbed human that has taken care of themselves and not relied on big pharma to keep them "healthy".
All the information is at your fingertips, its up to you to learn.
"Blindboy STILL telling lies about the dangers of Covid. Of you are a healthy person and not elderly then Covid was never a serious health threat except unless you were extremely unlucky. More young Australians would get sick from dengue in Bali than seriously ill from Covid. The dangers of riding a motorbike in Asia make the threat from Covid seem insignificant.
The lie is up. The world knows that Covid is not an existential threat."
pretty much...
the fear peddlers should be hoping it came from a lab... because now, that's about all that could possibly justify all the hyperbole...
"The world knows that Covid is not an existential threat."
No-one ever said it was, but in May last year the case fatality rate was running between 1.4% and 14%. In the circumstances only an idiot would have been trivialising the seriousness of the issue. Greater awareness and more effective treatments have brought it down but it is still running at over 2% in some developed countries. Those who keep emphasising the low risk in younger age groups are simply ignoring their responsibility to limit its spread. Taking the "it's all about me" approach is reprehensible.
"The propaganda being thrown from every angle is the issue. It's caused divide, its caused irrational thinking,..."
yep, it's been outrageous, absolutely off the charts... from every angle...
and sadly, I think it's been more about politics, ego, and being right, than any percieved public service...
what an (inadvertant) psyche experiment it has been!
Huh? The entire messaging from March 2020 was that Covid was an existential threat. Literally.
Now you are trying to walk back the Big Lie and rewrite history. Why? Time to be honest with yourself and everyone else.
"The entire messaging from March 2020 was that Covid was an existential threat. Literally."
Well then it should be easy to find the evidence for it. Of course first you have to define what that threat was to. An existential threat to humanity itself? To civilisation as we know it? To economic growth? Anyway feel free to post whatever you think is relevant.
Here's an idea. Why don't we all get on with our lives and in 12 months report back to see if Team Blindboy Or Team Blowin were correct. I'm sure the results and discussions will be fascinating.
Not sure how many times you want me to repost this before you acknowledge it. This was prime time breakfast TV. This messaging was repeated throughout almost all media. If you can find a more clear cut example of mass media fear mongering vs reality anywhere in history I’d like to see it.
Picture yourself back at the start of April 2020, with no,idea of how serious the virus would actually be and then seeing reportage like this flooding the mainstream media 24/7. Consider how messaging such as this from the government sanctioned news services of Australia impacted the thinking of the population. Remember that at NO STAGE was this outcome a genuine possibility.
Just think ….this headline was issued when Indo had a handful of Covid cases and fuck all deaths. It was left to the viewer to extrapolate that if 250,000 people die in the first month then how many will die all up? The viewer was encouraged to believe that the death toll would be endless and unprecedented…..many, many millions. Hundreds of millions?
So yes….it was promoted as a literal existential threat to humanity.
It’s called propaganda. The least you could do is acknowledge the fact.
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garyg1412 wrote:Here's an idea. Why don't we all get on with our lives and in 12 months report back to see if Team Blindboy Or Team Blowin were correct. I'm sure the results and discussions will be fascinating.
What ….you think that the government and media who are complicit and responsible for the propaganda campaign will ever recant and admit their involvement? That screenshot above is 18 months old and I’ve yet to see a single word of contrition or explanation of how such dangerously inciting Fake News could come to be broadcast without recourse.
People were hoarding hundreds of rolls of toilet paper because they’d been invited to panic by the government and the media. It was fucked up and people need to remember the extent of the lies they were fed. I remember flying home from Indo in March 2020 wearing a face mask after watching clips of people dropping dead in the street in China and the ridiculous fear mongering being pushed on the Asian news channels. It was out of control.
Not sure what you're banging on about. With case fatality rates hitting 14% at that time, the figure was probably a worst case scenario, but an existential threat? Nah. Let's see Indonesia has a population of somewhere over 250 million. At 250,000 a month that would be a 1000 months (over 83 years) to take out the whole population. Maybe you just mean that some predictions were exaggerated.
What I find continually interesting is the type of people getting involved here in Australia in the anti covid vax/pro-freedom of choice movement.
From doing MY OWN RESEARCH I've found we've got some crackers - Craig Kelly and Malcolm Roberts, Australian Trump supporters (Anyone see the amount of Trump flags at the freedom protest in Melbourne? Including one which had him looking to be shirtless holding a machinegun). Naturopaths, people who believe in chem trails, Instagram Mums, life coaches, ex professional athletes, B-grade (and C, D) musicians & personalities.
it's a great mix. Completely reputable, and clearly the leading edge of science, knowledge and social experience.
Actually, generally there isn't many it seems younger individuals getting involved (except for kids, brought along to protests by their parents). My theory with this is younger people are more capable of navigating social media without getting sucked down algorithm based rabbit holes.
It's almost amusing (but a little scary) seeing what type of people can be pulled into this world of misinformation. How quickly they go all out on it.
There was never genuine 14% case fatality rates. You are quoting lies to substantiate bullshit.
Then again…..you believe that the US (the global centre of lies and propaganda) has suffered more Covid deaths than anywhere…..lolol.
China population 1.6Billion Covid deaths = 4000
Nigeria population 220M Covid deaths =2000
US population 320M Covid deaths = 700,000……yeah right.
Look at the world in data link above. Italy May, June, July 2020, case fatality rate above 14%.
“Actually, generally there isn't many it seems younger individuals getting involved (except for kids, brought along to protests by their parents). My theory with this is younger people are more capable of navigating social media without getting sucked down algorithm based rabbit holes”
Young people don’t give a fuck about Covid unless they are chicken shit soft cocks who’ve been taught fear by their likewise acting parents. They don’t protest they just meet in large groups and swap bodily fluids whilst the news watching parents hide in fear in their basements and dob on people who don’t swipe the QR codes.
blindboy wrote:Look at the world in data link above. Italy May, June, July 2020, case fatality rate above 14%.
Italy was an extreme outlier and it just so happened to be the first Western nation to experience an outbreak. It needed to exaggerate the death rate in order to create the shock and awe propaganda which got the western world to accept lockdowns and citizens accepting the unprecedented loss of freedoms.
explain to me why the 14% fatality rate has never been replicated.
Seems like the opposite of fear mongering is downplaying, which is the approach several countries took, including the USA and Indonesia.
as detailed in this ABC piece from Apr 20
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/coronavirus-could-cause-240,000-d...
What was the better approach to Covid 19?
Fear mongering or downplaying.
It would seem as far as preserving life and economies, then "fear mongering" was the most sensible policy.
btw, in the ABC piece above we get the source of the claims of Indo death counts.
Seems it came from Indonesian Academics.
"In any case, scientists at the University of Indonesia have predicted that if stricter measures do not start immediately, the situation could spin out of control, with up to 240,000 deaths by the end of April".
Is it fear mongering for media to report the predictions of scientists?
More to the point, were there epidemiological grounds for believing that?
If so, then it would seem prudent to report that?
I haven't really been exposed to the full blown media scare mongering : if you'll recall at the start when Blowin was hyping it up, I was downplaying it.
I said there was unlikely to be as many fatalities as a bad flu season and that there was no way we would still be talking about it a year later.
My position has changed. Mostly in response to the evidence.
You’ve also downplayed the severity of the authoritarianism imposed on Australians due to your lack of personal exposure to the situation. Perhaps that’s why you’re a bit non commital and non plussed by the entire episode?
You (and I) were not:
/Locked in your house for 23 hours per day
/Locked in your house when the sun went down.
/Likely to be persecuted for sitting alone outside.
/Having our neighbourhoods patrolled by military enquiring as to why you weren’t in your house.
/Restricted to within 5kms of your house.
Etc etc
The conditions which Australians accepted under the guise of preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths were extreme and would never have been given social licence by the population without the preceding propaganda campaign which was bolstered by lies.
Possibly.
My cousin in Melbourne who works in theatre seemed to think the lockdowns were justified, although by the last one, she was jack of it.
Outside Melbourne (and a few western Syd suburbs) the lockdowns have been pretty token.
It'll be interesting to see at the ballot box what percentage of votes the hard core anti-vax, this is a hoax/we didn't need lockdown crew like Craig Kelly and Clive Palmer get.
I got some pals who are fervently of the same opinion as you who will vote for them.
My guess is that will be about 7-10% of the vote.
But I could be wrong.
I think that people who are skeptical or cynical of the COVID-19 vaccines solely on the basis of the relatively low mortality rates of the disease are missing the point of vaccines in general. Many of the common childhood vaccines are for diseases with relatively low mortality rates; the main purpose of those vaccines is to reduce the spread of diseases that severely affect people's health and quality of life. Those vaccines also ease the potential burden on health care systems. Imagine if there was no polio vaccine; a small percentage of children would die, but there would be a lot of sick kids, unable to go to school and enjoy their childhood, some hobbling around on one leg. All those years ago when they rolled out the polio vaccine, it didn't divide society like the COVID-19 vaccine has done. I wonder why?
Throws a kilo of salt in the SN forums…now ready to read princess snowflake blowin's latest claim and bs.
"Italy was an extreme outlier and it just so happened to be the first Western nation to experience an outbreak. It needed to exaggerate the death rate in order to create the shock and awe propaganda which got the western world to accept lockdowns and citizens accepting the unprecedented loss of freedoms."
Talk about leaping to conclusions! Man that has to be a world record. I'm sending it to the Guinness Book of Records! It gets harder and harder to see you as anything but malicious, someone with zero concern about the community but desperate to justify whatever nonsense happens to rolling around his brain at the time. Oh and Sweden and I think it was Spain were running at over 11% at the same time. Maybe you should look at the links before rabbiting on with further advances on your bullshit. So what now? A triple headed conspiracy to speed up world domination all under the control that arch villain Gates with his injectable chips.... and only blowy and a few youtubers working to save us! Ha ha I robot! I hear and obey Master Bill. For ffs get a hold of yourself mate! I mean I appreciate the laugh but really.....
Very interesting to compare the USA response, where Trump downplayed the virus for as long as he could and countries that went hard early, like South Korea and Australia.
That gives a natural "control group" as far as pandemic response goes.
Did they over-reach?
I trust in the electorate to make that known at the ballot box.
I am undecided yet on the necessity to vaccinate young kids, i think once we get to 90%+ vaxxed over 16 years old and more data is captured around the world..it may just not be necessary. It could be 10 and over get vaxed or something else. Still thinking this bit over.
Happy to be corrected if I am wrong and happy to have every person vaxxed if that is the correct and best thing to do.
Oh come on blindboy. Didn't you know the survival rate for covid is 99.98%? I mean, blowin has said that about 100 times so it must be true,
freeride76 wrote:Possibly.
My cousin in Melbourne who works in theatre seemed to think the lockdowns were justified, although by the last one, she was jack of it.
Outside Melbourne (and a few western Syd suburbs) the lockdowns have been pretty token.
It'll be interesting to see at the ballot box what percentage of votes the hard core anti-vax, this is a hoax/we didn't need lockdown crew like Craig Kelly and Clive Palmer get.
I got some pals who are fervently of the same opinion as you who will vote for them.
My guess is that will be about 7-10% of the vote.
But I could be wrong.
I don’t think the virus is a hoax- I think it’s entirely overblown. I don’t think broadscale involuntary lockdowns were necessary but I think there should’ve been provisions to ensure the legit vulnerable were financially able to remain sequestered. It would have been rorted to fuck but only a fraction of the Jobkeeper rort.
I wouldn’t vote Craig Kelly or Clive Palmer if they promised me free beer and perfect waves forever. Almost everyone I know was begrudgingly vaccinated after the coercion but knows vaccine mandated and passports are the first step on a path no one wants to go down. I estimate that half of people are vocally against the vaccine passport with another 25 percent against it initially but complacent about it already- mostly because it’s not enforced.
Almost universally the people I know who are pro vaccine mandate are Boomers. Though not all boomers are pro mandate. They guise it as concern for others but I reckon it’s a generational late life tendency towards accepting authority.
Vic Local wrote:Oh come on blindboy. Didn't you know the survival rate for covid is 99.98%? I mean, blowin has said that about 100 times so it must be true,
The Australian survival rate for Covid including all ages and ill health is 99%.
For 40-49 it’s 99.85%
30-39 it’s 99.943%
20-29 it’s 99.975%
10-19 it’s 99.992%
0-9 it’s 100%
I stand by the fact that Covid is barely a risk of fatality to a healthy younger person. It’s barely a risk to an unhealthy younger person as the above figures state factually.
For what it's worth.
I live in metro Melbourne, so have lived under extended lockdown conditions unlike many of our commentators above.
My wife, sister, and niece work in the Victorian public healthcare system and my two sisters-in-law and many of my wife's friends work in the healthcare systems in Ireland and the UK.
Having heard firsthand from people who are on the frontline of the shit storm that went down over there, and having skin in the game here, I have no doubt that the approach taken in Australia has saved many lives. Including those of healthcare workers.
As crap as it has been, being stuck inside a 5 km radius, with only a couple of hours of "exercise time' per day, I think the approach taken has been the right thing to do.
People are welcome to think otherwise, I am not trying to change anyones mind. But ca we please quit the "you are all scared sheeples" type rhetoric. It is lame and selfish.
I am off to walk the dog.
Aus should bring this in eventually…choose to be unvaxxed, need hospital care…get invoiced for your stay. Super idea.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-will-stop-free-treatment-of-...
Still pushing the selfish view Blowin. The case fatality rates are much less important than the overall ICU rate. Our hospitals are already over loaded and expect higher case loads as the place opens up.......but hey you're OK so why not push your do nothing approach. It is others who will get sick.....and die. Why should you care?
Roadkill wrote:Aus should bring this in eventually…choose to be unvaxxed, need hospital care…get invoiced for your stay. Super idea.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-will-stop-free-treatment-of-...
Being overweight is virtually as relevant as vaccine status when it comes to ICU admission. Time to start hitting the fatties up for full freight?
Whoa….pointing out that someone is a phat kunt is body shaming hate speech! Even though it’s a life choice exactly the same as the unvaccinated who are untreated as pariahs by institutional Australia.
From BB’s link…
Check page 8 of Blindboy’s ICU admissions link.
https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2734880/25_MONASH_SPR...
Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Aus should bring this in eventually…choose to be unvaxxed, need hospital care…get invoiced for your stay. Super idea.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-will-stop-free-treatment-of-...
Being overweight is virtually as relevant as vaccine status when it comes to ICU admission. Time to start hitting the fatties up for full freight?
Whoa….pointing out that someone is a phat kunt is body shaming hate speech! Even though it’s a life choice exactly the same as the unvaccinated who are untreated as pariahs by institutional Australia.
From BB’s link…
You are more irrational today than usual.
Blowin wrote:Vic Local wrote:Oh come on blindboy. Didn't you know the survival rate for covid is 99.98%? I mean, blowin has said that about 100 times so it must be true,
The Australian survival rate for Covid including all ages and ill health is 99%.
For 40-49 it’s 99.85%
30-39 it’s 99.943%
20-29 it’s 99.975%
10-19 it’s 99.992%
0-9 it’s 100%I stand by the fact that Covid is barely a risk of fatality to a healthy younger person. It’s barely a risk to an unhealthy younger person as the above figures state factually.
Oh FFS Blowin the hospitalization rate for those that test positive runs as high as 10%.
Its not a stretch for a mil to catch COVID at the same time with no restrictions, no vax's but lets say 100K do that's 10,000 hospital cases and up to 20% will require ICU.
Know any where in Oz that could handle that?
“Oh FFS Blowin the hospitalization rate for those that test positive runs as high as 10%.”
Incorrect. What you meant to say was that up to 10% of people in hospital test positive for Covid.
BTW…”It’s not a stretch to say a million could (simultaneously) catch Covid”
No, it’s a fantasy. It’s a physical impossibility for a million people to catch Covid in Australia at the same time. Apart from that your figures are made up.
Current hospitalisation rate is about 5%. Thanks to the high vaccination levels.
I like that logic roadie, I reckon we should charge a whole stack people for their medical treatment. This would reduce our taxes massively. Let's start a list of those that can pay for their hospital needs:
-chunksters (the overweight)
-smokers
-illegal drug users
-skin cancer sufferers who don't take adequate measures to protect themselves from the sun
-alcohol drinkers
-speeding motorists in accidents
-those that don't get enough sleep
Feel free to add a few more then we can each send this to our local members.
Your first issue is reading news.com.au Roadkill.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia