COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

"The only reason that the ADF and police ran efficient and effective quarantines at hotels in all the other states is because Murdoch wasn’t dedicating every front page to bring them down."

Has nothing to do with Murdoch, has to do with the fact other states quarantine systems so far have worked pretty efficiently while Victoria's has had quite big issues and a major outbreak.

If another state had a major outbreak because of failing of quarantine then you can be certain it would/will be under the spotlight of all media outlets.

"most interesting folks that pleaded to stop the blame game, are so vehemently involved in the blame game"

100%

I thought of that one zen

...as I was skooled...

oarsome example of absolute lack of self awareness amongst cohorts...

the hypocrisy, the nastiness, the irony

again

I'm of the opinion Syp, if you're gonna skool someone on their grammar and spelling, you need to be absolutely flawless yourself.

I'm giving Vic a generous C -

Very generous indeed, the fucker can't even do paragraphs, that's about a year 9 C-

Anyhoo, I'm just about to load up, drive north for our first road trip in ages. Gonna climb a mountain tomorrow. Looking forward to getting out of town.

Have a good one guys. Hope there's some waves around for you all. Flat here so's not as if I'm driving away from anything.

In the aftermath of disasters the public often has unrealistic expectations about the government’s ability to deliver the necessary services and support. The less predictable and larger the disaster, the more likely this is to be true. However, in the case of Australia 2020, both disasters were eminently predicable and potentially containable.

The level of governmental incompetence in the bushfire disaster was incomprehensible. Prior to the fire season every fire commissioner and every other expert in the field gave clear warning about the potential for an unprecedented fire season and urged urgent preparation. Their advice was not only ignored but treated with such utter contempt that the Prime Minister took an overseas holiday just as the worst was kicking off.

The pandemic also was predictable. Epidemiologists have pointed out over recent decades the near certainty of the emergence of a new highly infectious virus causing serious illness with a high mortality rate. In Australia, the warnings had bee heeded and there was a pandemic plan. In the early stages of the pandemic, as the advice of health experts was apparently being followed, it seemed that some lessons had been learnt from the bushfire disaster.

Unfortunately as the pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that the same levels of incompetence at the Federal level that left the nation unprepared for the bushfires, had prevented an effective response to the pandemic. The NSW inquiry into the release of infected passengers from the Ruby Princess into the community is still underway but it has become obvious during its proceedings that the government in covering up its errors. In what amounts to an admission of guilt, the government has prevented ALL federal officials from appearing. And this in a state with a Liberal Premier. At the same time the Royal Commission into aged care has revealed not only the lack of a specific COVID-19 plan, but also that delays in communicating information about the outbreak at St Basil’s in Melbourne prevented an effective early response. Now there is evidence emerging that in June there was significant conflict at a meeting to establish draft protocols for the management of aged care outbreaks.

This conflict was between senior clinicians, nurses and leaders from the NSW's aged-care providers and Aged Care Quality and Safety Commissioner, Janet Anderson. The clinicians nurses urged that the only effective way to control such outbreaks was for infected patients to be removed to hospitrals. To their great anger Janet Anderson refused to consider that policy.

The result of that decision left the most vulnerable people in our community in the care of poorly trained casual workers without the resources to impose effective infection control. It seems the government’s willingness to follow expert advice was perishable and had an early expiry date.

Blowfly, I would argue all of Australia’s COVID-19 problems stem from two monumental failures by Morrison. First our international borders were Closed 3-4 weeks too late and second returning citizens were not quarantined remotely. Both directly Morrison’s responsibilities. Morrison did not act on these two matters because the economy was and remains his first priority. It should have been obvious when the first news reports coming out of China we should have started preparations. As with the bush fires he has proven himself someone who reacts to problems never proactive.

The 'just in time' business model/philosophy does not "fit all sizes".

In fact, apart from its original conception (and even that's debatable), it doesn't work. And more importantly, shouldn't even be considered when it comes to areas of public concern like health, education, welfare etc

Just so much more unwanted and unwarranted neoliberal economic rationalist infection in our public lives.

I think you're right Guy and as facto points out the problems go deeper than the response to crises. A huge factor in the problems we faced in the pandemic was the casualisation and downgrading of the skill level amongst aged care workers and security guards. If there is not a trained workforce with secure work in key positions, it is always likely that things will go wrong.

I think you're right too guysmiley ...feeling very warm fuzzy, but perplexed today...

however, do you seriously believe a shorten labor government would have closed the borders sooner?

I'd say you've got all sort's of naivity, gullibility, and wishful thinking going on there...

"however, do you seriously believe a shorten labor government would have closed the borders sooner?"

Taken across the whole time frame of both disasters I would have absolute confidence that a Shorten governmnent would have performed far better than the Morrison government. Would they have made mistakes and misjudgements? Probably. Would they totally ignored the warnings of the experts about the bushfire risk? Absolutely not. Would they have followed the advice of the health experts and stuck to the task? Absolutely. The decreasing support on these pages for this government represents what is happening in the wider community. Morrison is fucked. He will face a huge swing against him at the next election and go shuttling back under the rock he crawled out from.

so a no then?

...or a maybe...

most of all that MAY well be true, but they still wouldn't have shut the borders any sooner

biily boy, the team, and 'manchurian dan', would still have been beholden to their twisted faith in a flawed dream associated with a certain world view

they would've still been in denial, blabbing on and dithering, blindly defending a broken model, even well after it was plainly clear china had weaponised the tools of war

a bit like viclocal and facto on here

still!

Blowfly, agree with everything you said except the last bit. I thought he was fucked at the last election. Hadn't won a Newspoll in years, a mile behind, a pile off stuff ups in governing you couldn't jump over, a well drilled and organized Labor ready to govern, all the pundits predicting a landslide loss. Sportsbet had Labor at $1.10 and the LNP at $7.50 on the day of the election and the motherfucker still won! I know it was rorted and the media is all LNP and Palmer spent millions but still, they should have been rolled and weren't. Morrisons approval with LNP voters is 91% FFS. He's not going anywhere unfortunately, and Labor are piss-weak at the moment. Scomo might well be the next John Howard.

sypkan, not sure we will never know but I agree with blowfly I think that Labor would be more willing to listen to (and act on what) the relevant experts had to say. I remember Labor did take to the last election a bush fire readiness policy including the acquisition of more large fixed winged aircraft which subsequently were urgently needed, but largely stuck overseas when React-mo wanted them. I'll add do you remember Morrison's infamous Press Galley speech where he said the public service weren't there to give advice but to solely act on what the government (Morrison) wanted? Couple this precedent breaking (since Federation) sentiment with his government's stacking of every important committee and statutory body with ex Industry types (e.g. the Fair Work Commission) and it's easy to see him as an insular inward looking ideologue.

Another point to your question if Labor were in power during the bushfires and now Covid do you think they would be getting the easy ride from the Murdoch stable that traditionally LNP governments get ... like right now? Personally, I think Murdoch's rags would be full guns ablazing and to what extent that hinders the full realisation of any Labor government's ambitions is another debate entirely.

I agree adam, Labor should have knocked it out of the park and yes Morrison, the marketing man will know more than most do nothing apart from just look after the base.

"...a certain world view"

You must mean the view under which workers have job security and a living wage. The view under which the wealthy and corporations pay a decent tax rate. The view under which keeping welfare above the poverty line is more important than boosting the retirement incomes of the wealthy and adding to middle class welfare. The view that climate change is real and the necessity to address it is urgent. The view that ecosystems and species are worth preserving. The view that integrity in government is essential to a functioning democracy. The view that sucking up to billionaire bullies to get re-elected is reprehensible. The view that the economic problem is demand not supply so the cure is to pump up the money supply, not to impose austerity.

Nah.

Sepp's just a-whistling. Like old 'what-his-face' used to. Stank up this joint, all day, every day, with his soiled bigot-boy pants on.

Sepp's been hacked!

And he doesn't even know it!

"You must mean the view under which workers have job security and a living wage. The view under which the wealthy and corporations pay a decent tax rate. The view under which keeping welfare above the poverty line is more important than boosting the retirement incomes of the wealthy and adding to middle class welfare. The view that climate change is real and the necessity to address it is urgent. The view that ecosystems and species are worth preserving. The view that integrity in government is essential to a functioning democracy. The view that sucking up to billionaire bullies to get re-elected is reprehensible. The view that the economic problem is demand not supply so the cure is to pump up the money supply, not to impose austerity."

...yeh there's that

but coupled with the assumption and acceptance of the inevitability of chinese dominance, and the development of a chinese tech driven wuhan modelled surveillance state in australia

it appears those assumptions were wrong

again...

those pesky assumptions

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.news.com.au/technology/gadgets/mobile-p...

You people always bang on about how Murdoch has this huge influence on everything including politics and political results etc.

If this was true, why is it that since the internet and social media has become popular and a huge amount of people dont get their news through traditional outlets like TV, Radio, Newspapers, why is it that things aren't changing?

Surely if things are as you guys say, now with much more independent media online that we would now be seeing a change?

Especially seeing 90% of Murdoch media online is paywalled so even people like me that have no issue with Murdoch media unless we pay dont see it and most tight arses like me just read free online media ABC, SBS, the Age etc which are if anything left leaning, Guardian also quite popular and very left leaning.

IMHO you guys underestimate the general publi'cs ability to see through a lot of BS like they did wth Shorten.

You have to feel for the owners of these privatised aged care homes. COVID has completely ruined their business model...
https://www.smh.com.au/national/golden-age-over-for-maserati-driving-age...

Jonquil,

Still waiting for you to acknowledge Morrison's complete and utter fuck up of aged care.

You raise an interesting point about social media but how many of the LNPs traditional base would be on twitter, facebook etc or even get their news online? Suggest very few and here in Victoria the Herald Sun is mostly given away every other time you shop at IGA. As an aside are you watching Mother, Father, Son on ABC TV - drama loosely based on Murdoch's illegal UK operations, how he escaped jail time for that is beyond me.

Your acknowledgement Jonquil, about Morrison's monumental aged care failures.

YS, its what you get when you allow "for-profit" spivs into a sector previously run by the government and/or NGOs. Child Care is the same in the community programs sector along with the NDIS and Vocational Training and that's before you even think about utilities like privatised power and water.

Caspar dreaming you simply don't understand how the media (especially the Murdoch media) uses its power.
They don't tell people what to think so much, they just make sure they are thinking about the right things and let people draw their own conclusions. I will give you an example on your favourite topic, BLM protests. News limited endlessly linked the BLM protest to Covid 19 and suckers like you were lead by the nose to conclude that it caused the spike in Covid cases. News Limited barely touched on why there were massive world wide protests. Do you ever wonder why?
News Limited beat up minor ALP corruption scandals while completely ignoring massive corruption by LNP politicians. Like I said they make sure their significant audience is focussing on the "right" things.
This is one reason why complete fucking idiots like Barnaby Joyce, Craig Kelly and the Minister for Manilla are still in parliament. There's no way any ALP MP would still be in power if they acted like these three hypocritical morons.
Conservative media also give conservative politicians a platform with no tough questions. 2GB being a favourite place for the LNP to get out racist or BS messages (often with a deeply scripted conversation between host and guest). Dutton does it all the time, and then goes into hiding for the rest of the day refusing to answer any questions. By 6pm the entire mainstream media only have his morning radio sound bites for a story. bingo a deeply flawed message like "NSW Health Authorities are responsible for the ruby princess, ABF doesn't have any doctors" gets broadcasted.
Deeply flawed stories get dropped to friendly journos like Simon Benson and Sharri Markson where they get front page treatment. Apologies get published on p37 if at all.
Fucking Clive Palmer bought an election, and the only person really giving it to him is Friendly Jordies on Youtube. That's how power works in Australia. Scumbags get protected, and there's two entirely different standards for politicians on the other side of the political divide.

its called a free press, nothing the raving loonies on the left hate more.. buy the guardian or smh (someone needs to)

Vic did you understand the question? because you didn't answer it.

Again:

Once upon a time people had no choice but to get their news via TV, papers & radio this in theory did give Murdoch media much power when they own so much media.

However in the last ten years or so the way people get their news is completely changed.

Reality is Murdoch does not have anywhere near the reach and influence that he once had, however despite this there has been little change in how people vote etc .

BTW. Most people with common sense when they saw tens of thousands of people out on the streets together doing the complete opposite of what we had been told to do for months did not need ANY media to suggest what the outcome might be and were not at all surprised when the obvious happened to not report the obvious would be criminal.

Didn't answer the question. Fuck me, there's paragraph after paragraph explaining how Murdoch and the conservative media use their power. Yes there's more sources of media but some punter on Youtube doesn't compete with 70% of newspaper sales, TV channels, radio stations, and all the associated social media accounts from these platforms. It's a seriously organised echo chamber, and the ABC has been gutted so it struggles to compete. Conservative media in Australia is "the loudest voice" by design.
The problem is, you're just too stupid to work out how power works and who wields it in this country.

loungelizard, SMH has taken a huge step to the right under Costello and The Guardian rates really well. The thing about News Limited, Rupert's not in it for the $$$. It lost $1.5 bil last year, and he's in news for the power it brings.
Now Rupert is free to piss away his cash as he sees fit, but others are free to call out his, and his journalist's, racist and corrupt shitfuckery. It's a free press after all.

You obviously didn't read the question properly.

I didn't ask how he may try to use his media to influence or how he might have in the past..

The question was, why aren't we seeing any change when his influence over media is way down and the overall playing field more level than ever.

Anyway maybe someone else can answer the question as obviously you can not.

ID world wide news delivery has changed from the traditional formats, but Murdoch Media influence in Australia is undeniable.
One of the reasons could be that for a long time the largest voter demographic was older Australians, what most would call the Baby Boomer generation. These older Australians would have largely received news through the traditional formats, and still do, dominated by the Murdoch infotainment/propaganda machine.
We are seeing a changing sentiment in the voting public but there is still a large but diminishing demographic that is still under the Murdoch media saturation exercising its influence................maybe?

Indo, there has been a change in Murdoch's influence. He is nowhere near as powerful as he was 15 years ago. This has happened because he was unable to broaden his base from the declining print media and pay tv. The reasons for this failure are not hard to imagine when you look at his age and the calibre of people he employed.
Unfortunately for those who want to see balance, the right wing agenda moved steadily into social media and became tangled up with the output of state actors, political parties, freelance RWNJs, conspiracy theorists and everyone else with a budget and a bad idea. This is detailed in the link below.
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/08/20/fake-news-disinformed-to-death/

good article, aside from its overbearing bias, gross exaggerations, and misinformation

iro.. ....much ? ... oh don't bother

"...Nevertheless, the only true protection against active measures, whether by Russia or anyone else, is to deny them the openings they rely on. Those 2016 attacks were devilishly ingenious, driving wedge after wedge into America’s most seismic fractures, but none would have worked had those divisions not been there, ready to exploit. A democracy such as the United States will always be divided—of course it will. But Americans’ best defense against foreign enemies might be to stop seeing political opponents as domestic enemies. Russia’s exploits work because Americans are too quick to turn viciously against one another. The culture war has made the country vulnerable in the disinformation wars. Working for a truce in the one might be the best hope for victory in the other."

good advice, but I ain't seeing a rogue angry mob backing down anytime soon, not even close

'the culture war' is the left's war by definition

maybe they need to reasses some of their wedges...

...possibly...?

nah

"good article, aside from its obvious bias, gross exaggerations, and misinformation"

So please identify the gross exaggerations and misinformation you claim to have found. I know this might take a while as it will need you to actually read the piece, identify its numerous factual statements and then research evidence to disprove them or show that they are exaggerated.

there's a lot of assumptions in there

a lot of overlooking too

maybe jonathon shiuld concetrate on how to actually win elections rather than splitting hairs over lost ones

reactionary and void of vision

the irony

again

Or maybe you should retract accusations that you cannot prove. FYI in the extremely unlikely event that you do find "misinformation" in the article please do notify The New York Review Of Books. As a reputable publication used by many academics, the need to preserve their high level of credibility means they will publish a retraction. In the meantime, as an anonymous internet commentator with a long record of unsupported bullshit to your credit perhaps you should put your ego back in your pocket and take a more considered approach to your commentary on such publications.

Shirley anyone denying Murdoch doesn’t use his media empire to run a right to far right agenda anywhere where exists cannot be taken seriously. The facts over decades speak for themselves. I

Murdoch's MO has changed slightly over the decades. On a handful of occasions, when a conservative government is staggeringly incompetent and corrupt, and they have no chance of winning an election, Murdoch would begrudgingly back the other side. His papers / TV networks did this so they could claim they are balanced. That's no longer the case. Despite the Trump administration's record, Fox News is still backing that lethal nutter. Same in Australia with Scumo and Britain with Bojo. It's still a very powerful organisation, and they do act with very shadowy online forces.

retract ? good one blowfly. And when was the last time you saw sypkan or any conservative retract any of the BS they spread? It's like they don't even know what the word means.

so Im a 'conservative' now?

should be careful what you label people, tell em enough, and they might start to believe you... or so the theory goes...

especially with all that us and them crap that's getting around...

the article had a good insight into the supposed 'troll farms', but ignored the biggest threat. aside from a paragraph or so, it also totally ignores that this is the new game, and everyone's in on it. it appears jonathon still thinks 'the arab spring' was organic, ...cute.

the noisyest whingers are the same people who thought obama's tech savvyness was genius, a masterclass in tech era elections. trump does it, and it's sinnister

yes its sordid and sinister when russia get's involved, but that's the new game, they're all in on it

I dont think many people dispute murdoch's influence, but indo and zen have made good points about that diminishing influence

the constant constant whinging about murdoch, just sounds like whining and excuses. its become an impulsive go to for every single issue for a huge part of population, its fucking tedious

get over it and play the game, or fuck off

its really become quite pathetic

a whimsical patheticness, hands in the air despair, and definitely not getting anywhere...

....so dodge the issue as always. You know the way you stated that the article contained misinformation and gross exaggeration? Nothing to say on that. Not a surprise really.

"but ignored the biggest threat. aside from a paragraph or so,"

So what exactly is this new threat that you forgot to explain?

his take on russia makes a lot of assumptions

I purposely left the threat out, just like jonathon i suspect... though for different reasons,,,

but tbh, the article was so overbearingly biased I skimmed some particularly tedious sections and may have missed it

russia has a certain 'narrative' blindboy, and you're all in on it. given the ever unfolding russia record, if I was a lefty advocate, I'd be moving well away from it, but you guys just keep dragging it up...

its like a magnet in self embarrassment

let it go

You are the gift that keeps giving sypkan. When stuck in a hole......start digging.

Let's just try to keep it simple. The "disinformation", any progress there? Nup! What about the "biggest threat"? Nup, nothing. Keep at it mate maybe a bigger shovel would help out.

....and do you have anything I have said ever, that could imply I was pro-Russian?

well for one, I'd like to know how 'junk news' counted and collated the last 4 years of utter utter bullshit from at least 80% of media re. russian 'collusion'?

and, do we know the dnc emails came from russia?

I'd say that is not known

jonathon said so, ...quoting mueller, ...mueller? ...and the above, ...four years! ... ...yeh nah...

(note he carefully alluded to it, without actually saying it happened)

as a result, I take all the numbers with a pinch of salt, and the inferred influence with it, and even if the numbers and influence are not inflated, ...grossly exaggerated, ...whoop de do, welcome to the brave new world...

speaking of which, the real threat, he only mentioned in passing, making a point about the posibility of trump not accepting the result of the election. seemingly totally oblivious to the fact that jonathon, 'the establishment', and 'the resistance', have spent the last four years, ....wait for it, .....not accepting the result of the election...

and undertaking a perpetual coup to boot, ...bizarre... (for some observers)

implyed nothing of the sort

the biggest cyber threat dwarfs any possible numbers jonathon can present from russia, but he dont wanna talk about that, because that 'sinister' -ness is working for biden

basement biden

"well for one I'd like to know how 'junk news' counted and collated the 4 years of utter utter bullshit from 80% of media re. russian 'collusion'?

do we know the dnc emails came from russia?

I'd say that is not known"

mr anonymous internet ranter displays a new level of ignorance by disputing the findings of 17 different investigations into Russian influence including those conducted by both houses of Congress.

Mate you are down in that hole with a fuckin' excavator. I don't know what you're digging for but all you've got so far is a vein of high grade bullshit.

say what you like blindboy

it astounds me, that all of a sudden, people like you now have such undying faith in these institutions and investigations. and in the process are now siding up with neo-con morons

bizarre new world?

each to their own...

It astounds me that people like you regularly make ridiculous assertions about things you apparently know nothing about and then become upset when called out.

So now you have given up on providing evidence of your claim about disinformation, how about backing up this?
",,,,the biggest cyber threat dwarfs any possible numbers jonathon can present from russia, but he dont wanna talk about that, because that 'sinister' -ness is working for biden"

So you are asserting that Biden has a greater cyber presence than Russia? That is a pretty ridiculous call even for you.....don't suppose you have anything to back it up other than your status as mr anonymous-internet-know-all.

What's the temperature like down there? The usual gradient is about 25 degrees per kilometre so you must be pretty warm by now.

who's upset?

assertions... assumptions...

the disinformation is how jonathon writes, it's a 'get trump' narrative right from the start. 'his take' is one side of the story, he overlooks a lot, a hell of a lot, not least the biggest cyber threat to 'democracy' election 2020. if you're gonna write an article about the worries of external cyber attacks 2020 you can't flat out ignore the biggest elephant in the room

this really scares me that you haven't picked up on this, but the threat ain't the trolls under biden's basement

its been all over the news, well some news clearly

all the troll farms have their favourites

the crew hiding the elephant

https://www.pinterest.com.au/pin/61220876161956610/?nic_v2=1b4MsPoK4

not real convincing

By my calculation if you keep digging you will end up in the northern hemisphere probably in the region of Lithuania or Belarus.

So elephant? What elephant? Disinformation? What disinformation? Look it has been hilarious chatting with you but if you can't come up with anything resembling a fact and are just going to dribble on with endless ridiculous assertions, I can find more useful things to do with my time. Throw coins against a wall. Piss up a tree. Calculate how many bricks are in the entire building. Whatever. So up put or up shut.