COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Well you're entitled to your opinion but in my opinion I thought my post was neither pretentious nor conceited and not warranting the condescension. Your last line was unnecessary. And if you think my post was stupid, then you might want to check your tolerance levels. Maybe the problem lies within?
"I'd even go further to say social media (as much I can't stand it) actually is a mechanism to counter 'fake' news,"
So you make a comment which is completely wrong on a point which has recently been argued at length and in detail across all media and what... you don't think people will laugh at you? Maybe take 30s to find out something about the subject before posting next time. As for tolerance, no I'm not tolerant, as I posted above, of bullshit, ignorance or blatant stupidity. If people don't like that attitude, no worries, I don't like there's in posting crap in the first place.
Maybe my post was poorly worded however the argument I was trying to make was that social media (of which I still don't like) enables people, including yourself to have a voice and to reach an audience that they never would have comprehended not even twenty years ago.
You are/were a journalist right? I remember reading you years ago. I dare say you're more read (and in real time) than you ever were now.
I reckon by dismissing my point offhand by saying social media doesn't in some way act as a countermeasure to fake news, does the many smart people and those of your ilk a great disservice. Of course social media is the source of the majority of this fake news but not everyone is stupid and not everyone chooses to not question the information they receive. I would argue these days people more than ever have the ability and the technology at their fingertips to rebut what they would consider to be fake, whether they choose to do so is up to them.
I think you should take 30 seconds and re-read my original post before lumping me in your dunce basket with the rest of the people here you deem unworthy of having an opinion.
"Yeh I'm a cranky old bastard with a low threshold for bullshit and ignorance.....not to mention blatant stupidity, like this.
"That said the serious side of me says he is a complete looney and needs to go and his time is up, but if he gets reelected id kind of be happy to see all the whingers on the left go through it all again and all pissing myself."
This is the opinion of someone with an emotional age of 9......no, too generous, make that 7."
@Blowfly
Got to love the irony in your comment, it's the kind of comment a 13 year old would throw around online as an insult, not to mention it's pretty clear you changed your profile name(your third) to "Blowfly" just to troll "Blowin" you can't get much more immature than that.
My outlook is nothing more than looking for positivity in either outcome.
@ Vic
We can all agree Trump hasn't done a great job with the covid thing, but lets also be realistic, no matter who was in power the USA it was always going to get hit hard by Covid, everything about the USA works against controlling a virus, a huge population, countless huge cities, endless amount of international entry points, huge number of states each with their own leaders and views, and then to cap it all off a culture that is arguably the most undisciplined and divided in the world.
Shit ........ give it a rest Casper, why must you always be right all of the time? Well, I now have an inkling why so please just put a sticky note on your computer screen to remind yourself, just occasionally that would be nice.
Trump dismantled the US pandemic response plan which went back to Bush 1. The USA would have been way better off if not for him, it was very well prepared for a pandemic until Trump came to office. Do some reading Indo.
Thank's Adam didn't know that, even googling it now (with variety of key word phrases) not getting hits from Aussie media even ABC or SBS which is surprising thought it would have been a bigger news story.
@Guy, Please fuck off with your blatant trolling it's just lame and makes you look like a facto wanna be, id rather just hear your vanilla opinions, even if they are straight out of the Guardian..
Trump or no Trump Nth America is a broken country and there is no fixing it.
It's too far gone, the barriers are just too great in my opinion.
If anyone thinks I'm being too negative in my assessment of that once great country please name one politician / person from WW2 to the current day that could win the presidency and unite the country while materially improving the living standards of everyday Nth Americans.
Steady on Casper, you might also read Nth America once had the best pandemic preparedness in the world and their units/staff acted as an invaluable resource across the globe.
BF: “...or a completely appropriate response”
Yeah, nah. Doesn’t add to the argument and is usually employed off the cuff when there hasn’t been any personal slight against you. Matter of opinion and all that.
Cartoon for the times.
I’ve noticed on my social media the conspiracy theory nutbags are coming out of the woodwork thick and fast. I’ve got no time whatsoever to listen their bullshit. I’ve unfollowed 4 people in the last 3 days. Mates too.
Amazing what something like this virus can do to society.
Need your advice:
I've just seen a couple of posts from a client / associate / friend on LinkedIn talking about the "plandemic" and telling people to "do your own research".
The guy is quite successful and a decent fellow, but he's basically committing career suicide and is scaring off people big time.
Time for an intervention?
At your own risk Vic. There are some people I would be quite comfortable in suggesting that they were (a) completely wrong (b) damaging their business prospects. But there are others who would probably never speak to me again. How well do you know your man?
Met the bloke in Indo, surfed a few times in Vic with him, and did some work for the guy. He's got a lot better mates than me who I hope would intervene, but gee it's painful to watch.
Funny how Scott Morrison "launched a savage attack on 'amoral and hideous' suggestions elderly Australians should be sacrificed to save the economy" with regards to corona virus.
Even funnier how he won't name and shame these amoral and hideous human beings as they might be his pen pals from the ever enlightening Murdoch stable.
Poor excuses for human beings the lot of them.
live by the word, die by the word
That 'cartoon for the times' is indeed very relevant Stunet!!
Trump is the only thing standing in the way of the NWO. He stuck it to em at Davos. Rejected the push for Globalisation. If Clinton got in at last election we'd all be in FEMA camps by now... Bidden is a muppet and is there to look that way. If he wins the election we're fked and i'd give it 6 months before they pull him, which is the intention.
Shortenism, shouldn't you be trying to free all the children locked in cages under the streets of Melbourne and other cities around the world? You know the ones being held against their will by Soros, Clinton, and the Epstein cabal.
Information that has emerged over the last few days about the Federal Government's response to Covid19.
Quarantine: (1) Despite months of warning about the emerging pandemic overseas at the first series meetings of the "National (Covid19) Cabinet" of the Federal Government had no plan apart from letting people self isolate at home**. It was the premiers that argued against allowing people to self isolate at home and it was Dan Andrews' idea to have people quarantined in hotels. [STOP] Despite border security and quarantine being Federal Government statutory responsibilities Morrison and his government had no plan or idea to put to the premiers apart from letting people self isolate at home. (2.) the hotel security arrangements around the country needed to be put in place within 24 hours of the need being realised because the Federal Government was insisting our airports needed to stay open for international flights. [STOP] In the absence of Federal Government planning/action on border security and quarantine and its insistence that our airports remain open it was the States that were required to act with less than 24 hours notice. (3.) Much has been made of Victoria using private security guards instead of the army "like other states". First, WA also used security guards without incident. Second, the army wasn't available when the hotel security arrangements were put in place nor were they subsequently offered to Victoria. (4.) the Federal Government has blocked subpoenaed Border Force officials from testifying at the inquiry into the Ruby Princess [STOP] Transparency in Government ????.
Aged Care: It is the Federal Government that has full statutory responsibility. It is the Federal Government that approves, regulates, funds and monitors via its Accreditation Agency over 95% of all Australian aged care facilities. One of the Federal Governments prescribed Outcome Standards for Residents is Infection Control. Despite the tragic events in nursing homes in the US and the UK before Covid19 reached Australia the Royal Commission into Aged Care this week was told that neither the Federal Government nor its Aged Care Accreditation Agency had a Covid19 plan or any preparedness to help the 1,000s of aged care facilities around the country fight Covid19 infections.
** 4.26 edit What would Australia look like today if all returning overseas passengers were allowed to home quarantine like Morrison wanted?
"Information that has emerged over the last few days about the Federal Government's response to Covid19."
what is the source of this info, guy and is it reliable?
OMFG FFS.
Excuses excuses excuses.
Reality Dan fucked up, if he hadn't we wouldn't have this mess in Vic, we would be like most other states with no to very few Covid cases..
All that other shit is irrelevant, because it hasn't resulted in an outbreak like we have in Vic.
Really Indo? See, the BLM protests didn't result in an outbreak - yet they seemed to be incredibly relevant to you.
We get it, Dan bad Scott good; facts be damned, there's ideological points to be scored!
MSS Security, the contractor for Vic. quarantine, owned by Indian nationals (not that that matters), was recommended for the contract by the Federal Govt. as the preferred contractor in all States. Hold off judging who was to blame until all the facts are in Indo.
For the love of almighty atheismo shortenism. Get some help please. You have clearly completely lost the ability to tell fact from fiction and are borderline delusional. I suspect you are likely to be a danger to yourself and to others.
"All that other shit is irrelevant, because it hasn't resulted in an outbreak like we have in Vic."
WA also used security contractors at hotels, same as Victoria, and they didn't get an outbreak either.
And then you have ScoMo who didn't even want to use hotels at all...
Hey Shortenism,
Are you talking about George Bush's NWO, the one he mentioned almost thirty years ago in his September 1990 speech? Or is this another NWO, a newer New World Order?
Enquiring minds would like to know.
Tell us about the shape-shifting lizard people too shortenism.
synchrodogcal, I assume you accept what I said about aged care, it's just an undeniable fact that the Federal Govt is fully responsible for 95% of all aged care facilities in AU. Equally, given their inaction and total lack of preparedness they are also 100% responsible for the current tragic/fatal situation in nursing homes.
So I'll assume you are asking about the quarantine points I made above. Again point (4.) is an undeniable fact, the Federal Government is refusing to allow two Border Force staff appear at the Ruby Princess investigation. So much for transparency in govt.
Points (1.) - (3.) Over the last week the public unity between the Federal and Victorian governments started to splinter. There was a very clear and obvious push by Morrison and Frydenberg to blame the country's problems on Victoria. There was a press conference where Frydenberg was clearly very angry. This week of public blaming by the Feds also coincided with the beginning of the RC into Aged Care, the mounting death toll in aged care and the Ruby Princes inquiry. Further, as the blame game escalated over the last week various news sources started reporting on the differences of opinion on who was to blame i.e it was clear both the LNP and Labor were background briefing journalists.
On Sunday the background briefing of journalists and the increasing splintered relationship between the Feds and Victoria was discussed during the ABCs Insiders. The points I made about were specifically discussed and not disputed during that program.
So my sources were Melbourne radio (3AW and ABC), the Age and commercial and ABC TV news services. Credible enough?
"Really Indo? See, the BLM protests didn't result in an outbreak - yet they seemed to be incredibly relevant to you."
Increase in numbers aligns perfectly with the protest, you will say its a coincidence, but i and millions of others are not convinced, even the police commissioner said we know how dangerous these protest can be in regard to Covid (or something along those lines) and now we have seen quite a change in state government and police attitudes to any protest with them being very quickly nipped in the bud (rightly so)
At the very least one thing for certain, is it changed peoples attitudes towards things like social distancing etc, i felt the change and i saw the change, this change definitely contributed to increase in numbers.
Anyway i thought we had been over this before, we are not going to agree.
"And then you have ScoMo who didn't even want to use hotels at all..."
As we know with this Covid thing, we have had to constantly adapt and change as we progress and learn and as the reality hit in.
If that was Scomos thoughts and he didnt allow change and a huge outbreak happened, then you would have every right to blame him, but thats not what has happened, he has adapted as things progress, so it's irrelevant.
All that is relevant is is what caused the Vic outbreak, and if it happens in another state, all that will be relevant is what directly causes that outbreak.
Here we go again. Caspar-dreaming is pushing the same BLM rubbish with zero evidence except quoting a NSW copper with zero expertise in the field. Give it a rest Caspar, nobody, except maybe shortenism is buying your BS, and he believes pretty much any old drivel.
Police commissioners are well known to be quality sources of information on pandemics and all. Yes, we're not going to agree, I will accept the opinion of the most qualified person available - you've chosen not to do this as it didn't suit your politics. Excuse my lack of surprise.
Far more influential than a relatively small group of protestors is the constant divisive rhetoric that undermines the sense of community required to get through this being pushed by a certain sector of our media. This sector of the media is not interested in news, their primary goal is an ideological one and they do not care how they achieve it. They will endanger the lives of Victorians and indeed Australians to achieve it. They will sow division amongst Australians to achieve it.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeO4KmeVoAEOIUW?format=jpg&name=large
"So my sources were Melbourne radio (3AW and ABC), the Age and commercial and ABC TV news services. Credible enough?"
thanks, guy
appreciate the detailed response! so it seems the anti danners just smell blood in the water and are happy to play cheap and dirty politics to suit their own agendas... good to see that we're all in this together!
Some really good points there GS.
"There was a press conference where Frydenberg was clearly very angry. "
He always seems to be pretty angry, a bit of a tough guy 'adult' no bs facade.
But ....there was that time where he was walking out with newly selected PM Scomo with a grin so wide you would swear he'd just lost his virginity.
That wasn't pretty.
But things could be worse. Imagine if Abbott and smokin' Joe Hockey were in charge? Yea nah.
Frydenberg, all smirk no substance
Ha yea well there's that too.
[NEWS]
AGED CARE CRISIS.
"Australia's Coronavirus aged care deaths among highest in the world."
Royal Commission : "It's hardly surprising!"
WHO: Oz aged care deaths could rise twice as high.
Fed deputy CMO : More would die with "Devastating Effect"on aged care.
WHO & Govt say devastating effect of twice the deaths lie ahead...
Inquiry into worst age care extends to include world worst aged covid crisis. {R.I.P}
Who thinks [BLM] Airports / Hotels are gonna [BILLBOARD] Corona Aged inquiry?
Pretty Stupid Question as everyone, most of all Scomo knows they're a distraction.
Yes! Ok sure! Scomo will again intervene.."[BLM] + Dan or Eve or that Karen did it!"
"2 week 47,000 Hillsong Covid Crusade & Airb'n'b Pentecostal Slutz are exempt!"
Scomo's enquiry stooge has refused to answer one Question for 62 days...
Gutless Libs are responsible for worlds #1 Cowardly covid killing spree!
All we know is PM will go on blaming someone new each day.
(OZ age care % compared to 11 similar OECD Countries)
https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/213/4/australia-over-reliant-residen...
Highest % Institutional Care
Highest reliance on Institutions
4th least GDP spend on Institutional Care..
In other words...Lib aged care is also another Lib [WR] rort of Elder Abuse
Anyway you look at it..[457] Libs are proud World leading Elder Abusers.
Oz most Cowardly Leader ever, won't front up or answer one question!
As the death Toll is rising...PM Scomo is hiding...
Dan the Man fronts up every night to save cowardly Scomo...all Kids see that!
Scomo now blames Dan for not letting him know which Age Care Home is his.
PM fronts the inquiry! " Tell us again Mr PM...Where did you lose your nursing Home?"
Since March 6th - Scomo fronted up for work just 12 days during Pandemic.
"WR" AGED CARE CRISIS...Why should our PM give a shit!
The further PM runs from the crisis, the more his *Polls Skyrocket* *
Scomo is lazy, a liar, a coward & a sad excuse for an Aussie...please deport him!
Ms Mitchell: "All us here, would rather be dead than live in aged care!"
Ms Mitchell also brought up denial of windows & fresh Air...( Who is doing this? )
WHO -Human Rights > Mass Killer in solitary cell gets 2hrs/day outside with pay.
Largest desolate Island with least Pop' > pay $3,000 for a cupboard (No window)
Drive thru the Border Gate & the nice Police are forced to open your windows!
Qld Hot Hotel Beer Ban.( 'To Limit the Ramifications of Hooliganism' )
Couple paid $3,710 to order 2 cartons & a Bottle of Rum for the long haul.
Staff said ya get a 6 pack of their own paid for beer + a wine & that's yer limit.
Now consider any of us could take a carton each -up the lift.
Last few weeks + Qld Health confirm ( Quarantine Tests are being phased out. )
People are throwing tantrums, demanding $2,800 swizzle, but are told to back off!
Doctors told Qld they must let prisoners breathe, so they let hot convicts mingle!
One extreme to the other? People are now scared to hook up & say it's fucked up!
Penthouse Quarantine Party for Air Heads with no Slabs or Swizzle Sticks.
.
My first 'real' job was as a cook in a nursing home in Melbourne...1991 I think. I was the only person in the kitchen I was seventeen. I had no training or experience. The food was cheap crap. One delivery of bread a week, cheapest white bread and it was stored in the open pantry exposed to the affernoon sun... it would be going mouldy by the end of the week.
I had to wash disposable straws and re-use them because they were so tight for cash. They had a sign on the wall saying more money was allocated per prisoner than per aged care resident.
The meals were stuff like dim sims, tinned spag or beans, bread n butter and tea. I had to blend it for those who couldn't chew.
Residents used to wander in to the kitchen lost or with dementia... it used to freak me out working there.
I suppose they employed seventeen year olds to save money.
Sounds like nothing's changed.
Keep your health and mobility so you don't end up in a home.
Spot on Patrick.
Be prepared for self euthanasia before succumbing to a home if you've got the chance!
Re COVID- The Papua New Guinea Prime Minister is the FIRST leader to speak some sense. Ha I love it.
And community transmission begins again in nz. Can I blame Dan andrews
Without deeper knowledge of its nature, the spread of COVID appears as much due to chance as anything else. Dunno how you protect against that, at least at the community level, which makes the ideological sniping even more inane than it usually is.
Well, you can't really protect against chance....and it's seeming like time is telling that elimination is just not feasible.
Singapore, Australia and maybe now New Zealand. All had flat curves, either full elimination or well on track to it.
NZ would seemingly be the perfect country to have this under control....sparse and small population...island nation etc. If it can't be eliminated there then how on earth can we even consider it as a remote possibility for Aus? If they get it back under control after this current Auckland lockdown, who's to say this won't happen again and again?
At what point do we sit back and say, for all these lockdowns, boarder closures, 'state of emergency/disasters', we just can't control it and are maybe at best delaying the inevitable.
The first strategy made sense - suppress so the health system could cope. We gave ourselves false hope and now we expect too much.
"and it's seeming like time is telling that elimination is just not feasible."
Possibly true but at this point we have reason to be optimistic that a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, so reducing the spread until then is the aim. If the vaccine doesn't happen then it is something different....and much worse.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia