COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Constance B Gibson wrote:Goated?
give it a try and let us know how you go
Speaking of goats, does anybody remember this band?
ya'll forgot the best goat ever.
amateurs
Robo wrote:overthefalls wrote:Blowin wrote:Anyone got time between their search for goat memes to find a single, lone skerrick of scientific evidence which shows the vaccines provide a statistically significant improvement in covid outcomes for healthy young people?
Notice how none of the bed wetters on here date go near this most fundamental question underpinning everything they believe in?
Blowin, if you’re looking for evidence, you’re in the wrong place and you’re asking the wrong people, unless there are some epidemiologists and virologists amongst us.
You mean the so called experts pushing a vaccine that don't work for kickbacks lol
So every epidemiologist and virologist is on the take?
Haha Robo pressing on. Life might become too boring if he can’t keep goating the people of the memes
It’ll be all be over soon we can go back to liking everyone
PS I can’t believe I’m posting this
Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Might send this thread to the competition, sure they will get a laugh how much a f up this website has become, laughing stock of the surfing world probably lol.
way to treat the hosts.
This is a great website..the only fuckup is you.
you could always leave
I actually pay to be on here not like some, so bye toadmaster
Why would you pay for something you think is a fuckup? And the laughing stock of the surfing world?
Do you think because you pay you can post whatever you like with never a chance of being sanctioned?
I don't think it is I said the others might, reading is not your best quality eh toad, I have bought 2 subs lately , pretty sure your tighttoadarse hasn't, maybe check what you post pot/kettle
“Might send this thread to the competition, sure they will get a laugh how much a f up this website has become, laughing stock of the surfing world probably lol.”
No, you definitely said how much of a fuck up it has become. And then you double downed and it is the laughing stock of the surfing world.
You really should man up and own what you post as opposed to trying to walk it back.
lol, you cant really read can you, I said I am sure THEY will think, your a lier
Nope
Hey! Is anybody even listening? Cos Dixie ain't the only thing we're whistling.
Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Roadkill wrote:Robo wrote:Might send this thread to the competition, sure they will get a laugh how much a f up this website has become, laughing stock of the surfing world probably lol.
way to treat the hosts.
This is a great website..the only fuckup is you.
you could always leave
I actually pay to be on here not like some, so bye toadmaster
Why would you pay for something you think is a fuckup? And the laughing stock of the surfing world?
Do you think because you pay you can post whatever you like with never a chance of being sanctioned?
I don't think it is I said the others might, reading is not your best quality eh toad, I have bought 2 subs lately , pretty sure your tighttoadarse hasn't, maybe check what you post pot/kettle
“Might send this thread to the competition, sure they will get a laugh how much a f up this website has become, laughing stock of the surfing world probably lol.”
No, you definitely said how much of a fuck up it has become. And then you double downed and it is the laughing stock of the surfing world.
You really should man up and own what you post as opposed to trying to walk it back.
lol, you cant really read can you, I said I am sure THEY will think, your a lier
Nope
yep
the jabbed cookers are really hitting a high now lol
Might as well get in on the act....
overthefalls wrote:Robo wrote:overthefalls wrote:Blowin wrote:Anyone got time between their search for goat memes to find a single, lone skerrick of scientific evidence which shows the vaccines provide a statistically significant improvement in covid outcomes for healthy young people?
Notice how none of the bed wetters on here date go near this most fundamental question underpinning everything they believe in?
Blowin, if you’re looking for evidence, you’re in the wrong place and you’re asking the wrong people, unless there are some epidemiologists and virologists amongst us.
You mean the so called experts pushing a vaccine that don't work for kickbacks lol
So every epidemiologist and virologist is on the take?
did I say everyone? you got your reading skills off toad dill?
Hiccups wrote:
good to see you can type goats into YouTube, lame as f
My reason for posting animal photos is because debating the crew down the anti-vax rabbit hole is utterly pointless. The endless demands to prove their idiotic statements are wrong is getting pretty tiring.
You can't fix stupid, so the photos are a form of mockery.
overthefalls wrote:Speaking of goats, does anybody remember this band?
Lubricated Goat use to play on late night ABC variety shows hosted by Andrew Denton. They played at our uni once. The nakedness didn't make up for the fact they were terrible musicians.
Robo wrote:overthefalls wrote:Robo wrote:overthefalls wrote:Blowin wrote:Anyone got time between their search for goat memes to find a single, lone skerrick of scientific evidence which shows the vaccines provide a statistically significant improvement in covid outcomes for healthy young people?
Notice how none of the bed wetters on here date go near this most fundamental question underpinning everything they believe in?
Blowin, if you’re looking for evidence, you’re in the wrong place and you’re asking the wrong people, unless there are some epidemiologists and virologists amongst us.
You mean the so called experts pushing a vaccine that don't work for kickbacks lol
So every epidemiologist and virologist is on the take?
did I say everyone? you got your reading skills off toad dill?
Sorry about my poor reading skills, Robo. So what is your point about epidemiologists and virologists? A bit of clarification is needed for the likes of me who are dwarfed by the intellectual giants on this thread.
Vic Local wrote:overthefalls wrote:Speaking of goats, does anybody remember this band?
Lubricated Goat use to play on late night ABC variety shows hosted by Andrew Denton. They played at our uni once. The nakedness didn't make up for the fact they were terrible musicians.
Agreed, VL. It was the same era when The Brady Bunch Lawnmower Massacre were active; they once played at my uni and I remember the lead singer, Fred Negro, got stuck in a metal trash can that somebody threw him into, but he carried on, unfazed. Those were the days.
Vic Local wrote:My reason for posting animal photos is because debating the crew down the anti-vax rabbit hole is utterly pointless. The endless demands to prove their idiotic statements are wrong is getting pretty tiring.
You can't fix stupid, so the photos are a form of mockery.
It’s the other way around dipstick, you’ve lost the plot
freeride76 wrote:Brocky about to get dragged from the bottom paddock to the top, not quite stoked about it either.
Hahaha. Does brocky know you named a goat after him?
Pretty fitting really ;D
Tasmania dropping all requirements to be whacked to enter the state while WA says you need to be triple whacked and quarantine.
Hahahaha……… Science
Every state has completely different rules and we can not question them
Hahaha that is funny! They won Burliegh. By strategy maybe not substance.
burleigh wrote:Tasmania dropping all requirements to be whacked to enter the state while WA says you need to be triple whacked and quarantine.
Hahahaha……… Science
Every state has completely different rules and we can not question them
WA is cooked, should of opened with everyone else would be all over now, the German state.
See this village. I built all the buildings here with my own hands. Do they call me robo the builder? No, no they don't.
I taught all the little children in the village how to ride their bikes. Do they call me robo the teacher? No, no they don't.
When there is a wedding, I go out in my boat and catch enough fish for the entire village. Do they call me robo the fisherman? No, no they don't...
I FUCK ONE GOAT, ONE GOAT...
Not any old goat...
burleigh wrote:Tasmania dropping all requirements to be whacked to enter the state while WA says you need to be triple whacked and quarantine.
Hahahaha……… Science
Every state has completely different rules and we can not question them
Not science. It’s politics.
Vic Local wrote:I FUCK ONE GOAT, ONE GOAT...
No surprise there sicko
Interesting that those that cant handle others having opinions different to them have now basically given up on any discussion, and now just outright trolling this thread. (and off course the serial pest have joined in)
Plenty of views i don't agree with here (I even booked in for my booster shot yesterday for next month)
But I recommend just ignoring all those trying to silence you and stick to the topic, keep it civil and continue the discussion, cause thats what they dont want.
Their aim is to suppress your views and try to shut you down, so dont let them.
Oh Indo so boring as usual. The topic has been done to death and seems in a incessant loop. It’s been funny today. The freedom fighters can’t see it because they have lock jaw on the puppy. I’m in the middle as you are. Have a laugh. When did you become your father?
Supafreak wrote:Got a Covid Booster? You Probably Won’t Need Another for a Long Time
A flurry of new studies suggests that several parts of the immune system can mount a sustained, potent response to any coronavirus variant. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/health/covid-vaccine-antibodies-t-cel... https://twitter.com/vprasadmdmph/status/1496152804951572486?s=21
Damn paywalled looks interesting
seeds wrote:Oh Indo so boring as usual. The topic has been done to death and seems in a incessant loop. It’s been funny today. The freedom fighters can’t see it because they have lock jaw on the puppy. I’m in the middle as you are. Have a laugh. When did you become your father?
If it doesn't interest you then great, skip over the thread, i skip over the crap in this thread but there is good things posted here like link above.
Hopefully i can find another article on it that's not paywalled or need to register for.
@indo if you click on the Twitter link then you should get the ny times article without the pay wall , that’s how I got to read it . Breaking points talks about some of that article in this video .
Edit , apologies this is relating to a different NY times article . Indo you poor sod you wouldn’t know a good time if it sat on your face and wiggled
Are there really good things on this forum ID?
It's pretty much 50% covid misinformation and outright conspiracy theories and 50% animal pics.
Sure the animal photos are fun, but the rest of this forum is pretty much complete and utter crap.
seeds wrote:Indo you poor sod you wouldn’t know a good time if it sat on your face and wiggled
You think a good time is posting lame memes?
Each to their own but for me it gets pretty boring after one or two, especially as we have seen it all before on countless threads.
@indo , here’s that story that was paywalled Got a Covid Booster? You Probably Won’t Need Another for a Long Time
A flurry of new studies suggests that several parts of the immune system can mount a sustained, potent response to any coronavirus variant. Feb. 21, 2022
As people across the world grapple with the prospect of living with the coronavirus for the foreseeable future, one question looms large: How soon before they need yet another shot?
Not for many months, and perhaps not for years, according to a flurry of new studies.
Three doses of a Covid vaccine — or even just two — are enough to protect most people from serious illness and death for a long time, the studies suggest.
“We’re starting to see now diminishing returns on the number of additional doses,” said John Wherry, director of the Institute for immunology at the University of Pennsylvania. Although people over 65 or at high risk of illness may benefit from a fourth vaccine dose, it may be unnecessary for most people, he added.
Federal health officials have said they are not planning to recommend fourth doses anytime soon. The Omicron variant can dodge antibodies — immune molecules that prevent the virus from infecting cells — produced after two doses of a Covid vaccine. But a third shot of the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or by Moderna prompts the body to make a much wider variety of antibodies, which would be difficult for any variant of the virus to evade, according to the most recent study, posted online on Tuesday. The diverse repertoire of antibodies produced should be able to protect people from new variants, even those that differ significantly from the original version of the virus, the study suggests.
“If people are exposed to another variant like Omicron, they now got some extra ammunition to fight it,” said Dr. Julie McElrath, an infectious disease physician and immunologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
What’s more, other parts of the immune system can remember and destroy the virus over many months if not years, according to at least four studies published in top-tier journals over the past month.
Specialized immune cells called T cells produced after immunization by four brands of Covid vaccine — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax — are about 80 percent as powerful against Omicron as other variants, the research found. Given how different Omicron’s mutations are from previous variants, it’s very likely that T cells would mount a similarly robust attack on any future variant as well, researchers said.
This matches what scientists have found for the SARS coronavirus, which killed nearly 800 people in a 2003 epidemic in Asia. In people exposed to that virus, T cells have lasted more than 17 years. Evidence so far indicates that the immune cells for the new coronavirus — sometimes called memory cells — may also decline very slowly, experts said.
“Memory responses can last for ages,” said Wendy Burgers, an immunologist at the University of Cape Town who led one of the studies, published in the journal Nature. “Potentially, the T-cell response is extremely long lived.”
Throughout the pandemic, a disproportionate amount of research attention has gone to antibodies, the body’s first line of defense against a virus. That’s partly because these molecules are relatively easy to study: They can be measured from a drop of blood.
Analyzing immune cells, by contrast, requires milliliters of blood, skill, specialized equipment — and a lot of time. “It’s orders of magnitude slower and more laborious,” Dr. Burgers said. Few labs have the wherewithal to study these cells, and their findings lag weeks behind those on antibodies. Perhaps as a result, scientists have frequently overlooked the importance of other parts of the immune system, experts said.
“Most people don’t even know what they are — a lot of doctors and scientists are not completely clear what a T cell is,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston who led one of the T-cell studies. “Fundamentally, I would argue that T cells are probably more important than what many people have given them credit for,” Dr. Barouch said. Antibodies spike after every shot of vaccine — or after each exposure to the virus — and inevitably decline within a few weeks to months. Waning antibody levels after two vaccine doses prompted federal officials to recommend boosters for everyone older than 12. The extra shots fortified antibody levels and helped to contain Omicron’s spread, but they too appear to lose some of their ability to prevent infections within four months, according to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Antibodies recognize two or three key parts of the spike protein, a protrusion on the outside of the coronavirus that allows it to latch on to human cells. But T cells detect many more parts of the spike, and so are less likely to fail when the virus gains mutations in some of them.
Vaccines also encode a memory of the virus in B cells, which can churn out fresh batches of antibodies within four or five days after a new exposure to the virus. This dual punch of T and B cells help explain why many people who received two or even three doses of vaccine could still be infected with the Omicron variant, but only a small percentage became seriously ill. “You will see a decrease of the antibody levels over time, but if memory B cells are still there, and memory T cells are still there, they can kick back into action relatively quickly,” said Alessandro Sette, an immunologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology who led a new study of T cells published in Cell.
Memory B cells become increasingly sophisticated over time, and they learn to recognize a diverse set of viral genetic sequences. The longer they have to practice, the broader the range of virus variants they can thwart.
Researchers showed last year that the elite school inside of lymph nodes where the B cells train, called the germinal center, remains active for at least 15 weeks after the second dose of a Covid vaccine. In an updated study published in the journal Nature, the same team showed that six months after vaccination, memory B cells continue to mature, and the antibodies they produce keep gaining the ability to recognize new variants.
“Those antibodies at six months are better binders and more potent neutralizers than the ones that are produced one month after immunization,” said Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis who led the study.
In the newest study, another team showed that a third shot creates an even richer pool of B cells than the second shot did, and the antibodies they produce recognize a broader range of variants. In laboratory experiments, these antibodies were able to fend off the Beta, Delta and Omicron variants. In fact, more than half of the antibodies seen one month after a third dose were able to neutralize Omicron, even though the vaccine was not designed for that variant, the study found.
“If you’ve had a third dose, you’re going to have a rapid response that’s going to have quite a bit of specificity for Omicron, which explains why people that have had a third dose do so much better,” said Michel Nussenzweig, an immunologist at Rockefeller University who led the study.
Memory cells produced after infection with the coronavirus, rather than by the vaccines, seem less potent against the Omicron variant, according to a study published last month in Nature Medicine. Immunity generated by infection “varies quite a lot, while the vaccine response is much more consistently good,” said Marcus Buggert, an immunologist at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden who led the study. Although most people, vaccinated or not, show only a small drop in their T cell response against Omicron, about one in five had “significant reductions of their responses” of about 60 percent, Dr. Buggert said. The differences are most likely because of their underlying genetic makeup, he said.
Still, the recent studies suggest that in most people, the immunity gained from infection or vaccination will hold up for a long while. Even if mutations in new variants change some of the viral regions that T cells recognize, there would still be enough others to maintain a reasonably strong immune response, experts said.
One big unknown is how slowly the T cells may decline, and whether two doses of vaccine can create a long-lasting response, or if instead people would need three — as some experts have suggested — to cement immune memory.
“That’s a question that we don’t know the answer to yet,” Dr. Burgers said. “Those are the kind of studies that we’re going to need to do.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/health/covid-vaccine-antibodies-t-cel...
Vic Local wrote:Are there really good things on this forum ID?
It's pretty much 50% covid misinformation and outright conspiracy theories and 50% animal pics.
Sure the animal photos are fun, but the rest of this forum is pretty much complete and utter crap.
]
Among all the crap there is actually some good links to articles and videos, in particular Supafreak post some good stuff (Thanks Supafreak, will check it out)
There is some good discussion here amongst the crap too, i had a quick look at lunch and thought i saw a comment from Sypkan on the discussion of kids from grade 3 and under still needing to wear mask in class.
That whole discussion would be interesting as makes zero sense seeing we now know vaccinations do very little in preventing transmission and especially seeing we now know mask unless a certain high grade do very little to reduce transmission.
@Supafreak
Thanks you're a legend, i was going to ask if someone could cut and copy it. Cheers
Edit: Well thats all good news, I booked in for my booster yesterday with the attitude of just this one more time, so hopefully they don't keep moving the goal post.
@indo , so many new studies coming out , the old “ scientists now believe “ and then it all changes again .
Supafreak wrote:@indo , so many new studies coming out , the old “ scientists now believe “ and then it all changes again .
If it’s genuine, that’s a good thing isn’t it? New knowledge & all.
indo-dreaming wrote:seeds wrote:Indo you poor sod you wouldn’t know a good time if it sat on your face and wiggled
No memes from me.
Each to their own but for me it gets pretty boring after one or two, especially as we have seen it all before on countless threads.
I think you’re dead from the neck up.
Rabbits68 wrote:Supafreak wrote:@indo , so many new studies coming out , the old “ scientists now believe “ and then it all changes again .
If it’s genuine, that’s a good thing isn’t it? New knowledge & all.
Absolutely it’s a good thing if it’s genuine , if you watch the breaking points video I put up , it has some good points about health agencies should be more honest and transparent with the public in order to build trust .
seeds wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:seeds wrote:Indo you poor sod you wouldn’t know a good time if it sat on your face and wiggled
No memes from me.
Each to their own but for me it gets pretty boring after one or two, especially as we have seen it all before on countless threads.
I think you’re dead from the neck up.
info has a nose for it ....
Handsome devil
indo-dreaming wrote:That whole discussion would be interesting as makes zero sense seeing we now know vaccinations do very little in preventing transmission and especially seeing we now know mask unless a certain high grade do very little to reduce transmission.
Yeah maybe, but you know what also makes zero sense, this:
Cheers for ruining the thread wankers. How about we head over to the other threads say the religion one and the politics one and meme bomb them aye ! After all it’s just soo funny. True colours shining through here. Farkin geeks.
Also , not cool trolling someone the whole day. Let it go.
Fair call Alana.
Let's get this thread back to how it used to be.
This is me taking on Burleigh, Robo and The Real Donald, those were the days:
p.s. - If you can't guess which one I am, just look for the the fully vaxxed one.
Alana_a wrote:Cheers for ruining the thread wankers. How about we head over to the other threads say the religion one and the politics one and meme bomb them aye ! After all it’s just soo funny. True colours shining through here. Farkin geeks.
Also , not cool trolling someone the whole day. Let it go.
I didn't ruin it.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia