COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

The term 'anti-vaxxer' is used to shut down debate. Below you can read why some people don't like vaccinations.
-----------------------------------------

A single mother-of-three became fully paralysed after getting a free flu injection at work.

Kathy Watson-Jones, a hospital clerk from Greensborough in northeast Melbourne, received the vaccination on April 23 and that evening her legs started shaking and feeling like jelly.

By lunchtime the next day Ms Watson-Jones was paralysed from the face down.

The 45-year-old was rushed to hospital and after a day of tests doctors told her she had contracted the incredibly rare Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) – a disorder that causes the immune system to attack the nervous system resulting in paralysis.
It was just so scary and quick.

She is now confined to a wheelchair after contracting the incredibly rare Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS)

'I had no idea what was happening and I'd never heard of this virus.'

Doctors told her that GBS can be triggered by the flu injection but said it was incredibly uncommon.

Federal Health Department figures show that 16 cases GBS have been reported to the Therapeutic Good Authority in relation to the flu injection in the past five years.

Ms Watson-Jones had never had the flu jab before but said she was advised to get it at her workplace at Northpark Private Hospital.

'I just happened to be at work the day they were doing them,' she said.

'I work in the maternity ward and someone said 'You work around kids you should have one.'

'I thought I'd get a cold at worst, nothing like this.'

Ms Watson-Jones spent three weeks in the acute neurological ward have routine tests on her breathing and other functions.

'When my face got paralysed had trouble eating and talking and I couldn't cough,' he said.

She said it was hard for her three daughters Shannon, 13, Jamie, 12, and Zoe, 10, to see their mother in such a state.

'It's pretty horrible, I've always been there and now I'm not,' she said.

'They're managing very well.'

Ms Watson-Jones says she is lucky her condition 'plateaued' and she is slowly regaining feeling in her face and hands, but she is now confined to a wheelchair.

'My face is much better than what it was, I can smile and close my eyes now which I couldn't do,' she said.

'I can't stand. I move can move my hands a bit but I can't use my fingers or make a fist.'

Ms Watson-Jones is hoping that like 80 per cent of GBS sufferers she will make a full recovery.

'Ten per cent still have a small deficit and 10 per cent are left with more than that, we won't really know,' she said.

Now Ms Watson-Jones, who must spend the next three months at the Royal Talbot Rehabilitation Hospital in Kew, is undergoing hydrotherapy three times a week and physiotherapy and occupational therapy five times a week.

The local tennis club where she and her daughters are members – Norris Bank Tennis Club in Bundoora– are holding a fundraiser on Saturday and friends have started a GoFundMe page to help her raise money for medical costs.

Her three children are staying with her friend Sheridyn Moffat, who takes them to school and sports.

Ms Watson-Jones' parents visit her every day and her friends have a roster system to come feed her dinner each night.

She said she was overwhelmed by the support she was receiving from her family and friends.

'If it wasn't for my family and friends I don't know where I'd be.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3101906/Single-mother-three-par...

Horrible for her.
Like it says, very uncommon.
You can end up in a wheelchair from hopping in a car though

Vaccines are very complicated Patrick, anecdotes are real but the decision to approve a vaccine for use is statistical.
Too complicated for me to elaborate on here but the summary is the net benefit of introducing the vaccine outweighs not introducing it.
Yes, they do have complications and an inherent death rate directly attributable to the vaccine, nobody is denying that.
The more astute "anti-vaxxers" know that once the vaccination rate gets to a certain point then the disease becomes eliminated or virtually eliminated.
Therefore those who have not been vaccinated sit pretty knowing they will both not get the disease nor the complications from the vaccine. Personally, for those who choose not to be vaccinated for this endpoint, I do not like them, I consider it selfish.
Having said that, maybe many people would consider me to be selfish in other ways, so I try not to be too judgemental

"You can end up in a wheelchair from hopping in a car though"
People aren't shamed and called names for deciding to not use cars, or for being selective about which cars they ride in. Every injection contains different ingredients, every person is a different environment for those ingredients.
Vaccines aren't all tested thoroughly.
I reckon it can be a tough gig raising a family, let the information flow and let people make their own decisions and leave the shame, stigma and mob group pressure out of it.
-----------------------------

Australia's chief medical officer is urging medical staff and parents to immediately report any adverse reactions in children to the seasonal flu vaccine.

Professor Jim Bishop has told the ABC he only learned on Sunday of the death of a Brisbane girl 12 hours after she was given the vaccine.

The news comes on the back of revelations last week that more than 60 children in WA have been seen at hospitals across the state after adverse reactions to the vaccine, including high fevers, vomiting and febrile convulsions.

A girl, 1, remains in a serious but stable condition in Princess Margaret Hospital.

The Queensland Coroner is investigating the death of two-year-old Ashley Epapara, who was found dead in her cot on April 9.

The previous day she and her twin sister were inoculated by the family GP in Brisbane.

Her father David Epapara suspects the vaccination had a role in his daughter's death.

"We don't know much about what happened at this stage," he told News Ltd.

"But it seems too much of a coincidence for a healthy girl, after having this vaccine, to just pass away. It is shocking."

News of the death came after dozens of babies and small children, mostly in Western Australia, suffered adverse reactions to the seasonal flu vaccine, including fevers and convulsions.

The adverse reactions to the vaccine in WA prompted Professor Bishop to issue a national alert on Friday, suspending the seasonal flu shot for children under five.

Today he urged medical staff and parents to ensure all adverse affects were reported.

"We would depend on doctors and parents and others to report, and we'd urge them to," he told ABC radio.

He said Friday's alert was likely to result in a spike in reported concerns.

"I think the advantage of having an alert go out on Friday ... is that it brings this into sharp effect," he said.

"And therefore we anticipate a high level of reporting and we'd encourage people to report."

Professor Bishop said he didn't know of any Australian children who had died as a direct result of the seasonal flu vaccine and that the cause of Ashley's death was a matter for the coroner.

"I sympathise so much with the parents, I think this particular issue of fever leading to convulsions in toddlers is very scary for parents," he told ABC TV.

But Professor Bishop admitted clinical tests hadn't been carried out on the latest form of the drug, which also immunises against swine flu.

"The seasonal flu vaccines have been used for about 40 years with an incredibly good safety record," he said.

"What we do each year is we don't change the vaccine, the vaccine is essentially the same, but there's very minor genetic changes in some of the strains, as we keep up with the usual change of the flu."

Professor Bishop said that didn't necessarily warrant a new round of testing, given the swine flu element of the vaccine had already been subject to significant testing previously.

"It doesn't seem to be causing this problem, we haven't had reports at all of any spike in febrile convulsions for the swine flu (vaccine)," he said.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/childs-death-linked-to-flu-vaccine-20100...

For the record, I don't have any children.

(edit - deleted this bit because I don't know all the details)

But people should be able to make decisions without pressure and name calling.

"Indo - “Basically when you are vaccinated you are not just helping yourself you are helping society as a whole, “

Why don’t you get the flu shot then?

From Health NSW - Influenza (flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. Most people recover after a few days but for some people it can be fatal. An influenza vaccination each year provides the best protection against influenza.​"

Fair point, maybe i should go get one, i do have to go to the doc in a few weeks, im pretty anti social these days and work alone most days, so low risk to pass on, bit i will ask them if i should get it.

I dont know if this thinking is correct?

But ive always seen the flu shot differently to other vaccinations, as there is so many different strains of the flue it seems like a war that can never be won.

While general vaccinations against other things can actually eliminate disease from a society or come very close

Again, vaccines are complicated and very statistical.
Depends whether you consider someone who chooses to not get vaccinated as "reckless", not just self interested.
If someone kills someone from drink driving then there is certainly a degree of social impact for the drunk driver.
If someone dies (or is paralysed) because they chose not to wear a seatbelt then obviously only they have suffered the consequences of their own choice.
But if enough people choose not to be vaccinated in order to be in the "sitting pretty" group then there is a risk of the disease re-emerging.
And by the way, being vaccinated does not guarantee every vaccinated individual will never get the disease, only makes it much less likely.
Therefore if the disease re-emerges even some of the vaccinated population will get the disease.
Therefore the choice to not vaccinate potentially has massive societal implications, particularly on others who have been vaccinated and taken said risks

"But people should be able to make decisions without pressure and name calling."

I dont agree anti vaxers need to be ridiculed, they are a danger to society as a whole and the scary thing is their crap is catching on.

Its basically a result of the western bubble we live in, thanks to vaccinations we don't have to deal with reality that much of the wider world does..

I know how things can be without vaccinations i know of families in Indonesia who have lost babies or even grown adults to disease that is preventable with vaccinations, my wife auntie has fucked up legs from polio.

Well said Tylerdurden

All read and noted fellas, cheers. I do live in a comfy bubble here.

You can’t return from South America without the yellow fever (I think that’s the one) vaccination certificate

I returned from Peru last year and Chile & Central America in 2016. No vax or cert.
I think it depends on area or it's only advised as a precaution.

Is that right. Fair enough.
I personally agree with you on each to their own. I also think the whole debate is overblown on each side of the argument. I mean, get the shot if you want to be protected, or don’t get the shot if you see it the other way. Keep the responsibility of ones health with the individual.
It would be nice though to permanently rid some disease if we could, and I certainly don’t get the big deal about being scared of vaccinations, you’ve just got to think in stats.
So I assume you won’t get a CV-19 vaccination if it becomes available Patrick?

That is the million dollar question?
Will they be able to make a vaccine for CV-19?
I hear it starts with attacking the respiratory system and then goes into the blood?
Anyone with medical knowledge out there please explain?

"So I assume you won’t get a CV-19 vaccination if it becomes available Patrick?"
I haven't given it much thought because from what I've read it's highly unlikely a vaccine can be made that's effective. Broadly speaking no, I wouldn't.
The data shows a particular set are
more likely to show dangerous symptoms if the virus populates their body, diabetes, heart disease, (and another which I don't remember off the top of my head), Coupled with being elderly increases the risk. 98% who contract it, or more, are fine.

I don't know what the survival rate is for those with bad symptoms.

I think this is an opportunity for communities to discuss health. Beginning with looking after your internal environment (bugs need a particular environment to thrive).
I'd like to see a discussion moving towards ending/reducing heart disease, diabetes and other lifestyle illnesses.

'Normal' society was stopped quite suddenly. So we know we can make radical changes. Why not make radical change to engender a healthier and happier society. That is an important and desirable discussion.

Fear has driven the c19 response when there was only limited data. Mental health and lifestyle illnesses can be impacted from the lockdown; social isolation, job and business losses, added health worries about general hygiene, etc.

Personal health is a personal responsibility but we can help create a social and built environment that supports great health.

That might sound simplistic but I think you can get the gist.

They can make an effective vaccine to just about anything but implementing a mass vaccination program is entirely another matter.
The vaccination program has to result (or be predicted to result) in a net better outcome than no vaccinations.
In other words, a vaccine when given to an individual can prevent the individual getting the disease when next exposed to the pathogen. However, if the morbidity and mortality when given en masse is so high then there is no point. Similarly, if the cost of production of the vaccine is so high it may be actually more economically viable to simply let the disease go and treat those affected.
I’m not an expert but these types of points are only the tip of the iceberg in determining whether or not a mass vaccination program will be implemented

Related to the topic... friends and I (in our forties) are throwing around the idea of communal living as we age. Instead of going to retirement homes or expecting kids to take on the bulk of care, we'll live together or as neighbours...for proper social stimulation, to help each other, be there for their (our) children and grand children and in turn them for us (but there won't be kids doing it in isolation as is more likely to happen now).

If we talk about it now we have plenty of time to sort out details. There's many ways it could be shaped.

Hi Tyler.
I haven't got the stuff with me but I thought there's never been an effective vaccine for any of the viruses from the group of viruses that c19 falls in. I thought companies have been trying for years (or decades?).

Patrick....I’m not sure how closely you’re planning on communing with your friends but ive seen first hand how greatly a close knit social circle enables and aids elderly people.

It’s the whole package of emotional , physical and technical support. A shoulder to lean on in times of distress , guaranteed party crowd for celebrations, everyone seems to have a skill which helps out the others particularly cooking and repairing stuff. Things like someone helping with internet bureaucracy is immensely useful.

I think that’s a great idea to plan something like that with your friends. You’d have to be able to have independence and distance if you so desire or else there’d be a homicide.

Living in the same neighbourhood....yes.

Coexisting in a literal commune....fuck no.

It's great to hear your experience.

Yes Blowin, all those reasons and more. I've already lived with one of the families and we all loved it (me, the parents and the kids).

It has benefits for singles, families, parents, kids, elders. Yes, skill
sharing is highly desirable and individuals and community to turn to when needed.

We had it accidentally... I moved in to a spare room and we friended neighbours and all of us are talking about doing it again. We all live apart at the moment.

Patrick, haven’t seen the original paper(s) but apparently there was an effective vaccine for the original SARS-Cov virus but was never pursued due to its high complication rate, and maybe some other factors I’m not aware of.
I’m not a microbiologist but from what I gather all coronaviruses fulfil the criteria to potentially develop a vaccine against them

Ok, cheers.

Interesting article on trying to understand why Japan which had large tourist numbers from China in January, has a high population density and relatively relaxed lock down rules, hasn’t been as impacted by the virus as other countries.
There is another reference to the TB vaccination possibly reducing the virus impact which was discussed on these pages a couple weeks back.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-23/japan-was-meant-to-be-the-next-it...

This story from Western Cape, a few days ago, giving a glimpse at what might have happened if the virus got away here:

https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/400239/the-western-capes-corona...

"Cape Metro

Winde said that the Cape Metro is on the ‘upward part of the curve’ and is expecting to see case numbers increase more rapidly, with associated increases in hospitalisation and deaths;
He said that transmission has been concentrated around essential services clusters, care homes and in geographical areas where people who work in these clusters live and this has mostly been in the poorest communities in Cape Town;
Testing/ lab capacity is under severe strain. The National Health Laboratory, which is mandated to perform all public tests, simply doesn’t have the capacity to test enough, and return tests quickly enough, for us to intervene with speed as these numbers grow;
Winde said the provincial government is scaling up isolation and quarantine off-site, but this will reach its limit soon as the number of infections rise in line with the ascending curve;
The number of undetected cases will continue to grow unless major increases in testing capacity is provided."

Ive often wondered what happens to these kids of anti vaxxers in their future? First time they head overseas and out of the safety of Australia and the bulk of the populations vaccination safetynet as young adults? Is it more dangerous to have to have to catch up with a lifetime of vaccinations before they go? Do they leave totally un vaccinated and run the very real risk of catching something heavy like polio or tuberculosis? I guess the onus come down to them rather than their parents by then (assuming anti vaxxers never take their kids to the 3rd world? ) . Good mate is a staunch anti vaxxer these days and loves nothing more than to tell you all about it , very much like a vegan would tell you about being a vegan, highly annoying, also would be one of the most selfish people I know (not that has anything to do with his heroic anti vaxxer stance), not sure if there is a pattern there or not but just what Ive seen.

Fucking anti-vaxxers. Nothing but a bunch of anti-science Karens who think their "rights" trump everyone else's. You can guarantee that these anti-vaxxer fuckwits demand to be pushed to the front of the ER queue when their kids get measles. These fuckers aren't much better than US gun nuts. My right to own a military assault rifle trumps your kid's right to go to school without getting blown away.
I remember the little yellow health passport, complete with vaccine stamps, you needed to show the Indo customs officers at the airport. Bring back the health passport I say. No jab no pits.

Yep, Ever noticed how Anti vaxxers and their type are typically lower socio economic, lower educated losers looking for a lawyer claim coz their lives are shit?
Why would anyone listen to their unsubstantiated rubbish?
Out them and puke on them I say!

not around here mate.
they're usually wealthy instagram wives with mcmansions driving Audis.

In my experience it’s an entitled middle class thing.
Regressive-left libertarianism.

Our local anti-vaxxers are the same FR76.
I get the feeling being an anti-vaxxer is good for increasing your number of followers on instagram, which of course opens up more opportunities to flog bras and swimwear. Bunch of grifters.
Regressive-left libertarianism? Serious AndyM. That makes as much sense as saying a greenie is in favour of coal, or a White Nationalist supports immigration from NESB countries.

What's an NESB country?

Look up the definition of libertarianism Vic, not just how Yanks use the word.
It makes perfect sense.

Anti-Vaxxers around here are an annoying combination of eco everything, with an holier-than-thou environmental stance (ie drive a Tesla, brag about recycling etc) yet at the same time are very well off and do jobs that could hardly be described as essential.
They’ve crunched the numbers and realised that if 90% get immunised then there will be herd immunity and they won’t need to.
Hence, they won’t get the disease nor expose themselves to the complications of the vaccine

Complications of the vaccine??
Like autism?

Anaphylaxis, Guillermo-Barre, various immune mediated neuro complications plus many more, all very low incidence.
Autism? Maybe, certainly is possible although evidence doesn’t support it

My point is, the risks of not vaccinating far outweigh the risks of vaccinating so to talk about people not wishing to expose themselves to the risks seems non-sensical.
I was taking the piss with the autism comment.

Plenty of good randomised controlled trials with pretty clear answers have subsequently been shown to be wrong when repeated on a larger scale or with better design.
I know you’re taking the piss but Autism/vaccines may be one of them. I don’t think so but there is a little bit of anecdotal evidence out there...may turn out to be a link one day believe it or not.
This type of stuff is what the anti-vaxxers worry about, it’s real and could happen to anyone:

https://www.kidspot.com.au/parenting/real-life/reader-stories/saba-butto...

Mick is a prominent surfboard shaper in SW WA, champion bloke from a great family, absolute tragedy but they’ve handled it incredibly well

Yep burn em at the stake ei Vic & tyler... Wow the fear. What are you scared of lads, don't let a growing co-hort of liberated individuals get to you.. You need to look after yourselves, go for a surf I dunno do something..

Surf settled nicely and pumping on the northern beaches today, just got out of the water.
And yes, I try to keep anti-vaxxers out of my life

"Regressive-left libertarianism."

I thought that was a great term

then two posts down....

good rundown too tylerd

anti-vaxxers are across the spectrum really

there is a lowrider SE element, with your half bushman suburbanite, and his wife sharon. a bit bogan, a bit prepper, allegedly 'poorly educated', but general good guy. once all in on the traditiinal vaccine package, but now starring to ask questions

there's rabid howard battlers all the way to the audi driving yogurus

instagram influencers, entrepeneaurs, liberals (l), preppers, suburbanites, pagan warriors, and computerised calorie counting he-men have all found a common enemy it seems, though it is not clear what that is...

there's two types of anti vaxxers, the traditionals, who were gaining 'influence' pre pandemic, who are now capitalising on their 'golden wave'

and those who are suss on new developments, which isn't a totally irrational place to be

the shutting down of the autism debate hasn't really helped with credibility and the general suss-ness for either. loads of annecdotal stuff out there... but it's all about probabilities... and the probabilities say vaccinate...

half the problem with the autism debate is what is autism? so many things now grouped under the autism banner, the numbers of incidence would be pointless to study

the virus has it's own brand of anti vaxxers, nothing to do with traditional concerns. more to do with a lack of trust generally I would say. combined with the libertarianism trends across the spectrum/s, there's some weird crew keeping some weird company these days...

It’s weird, you sound like an anti-vaxxer Tyler.
Especially with that link.

Really Andy??
Read a few of the other posts.
Vaccines themselves have complications, occasionally bad ones and sometimes they kill.
There has to be a net benefit (including economically) otherwise its pointless.
It’s a statistical argument that most, vaxxers and anti-v’s, don’t understand.
I’m def in the pro-vaccine camp but the original diversion of this thread was about how easy/difficult it is to develop a corona vaccine.
Answer (also said above) is that it’s doable but much more to take into account than meets the eye.
That link is an example of how some anti-vaxxers can latch on to an anecdote and claim that all vaccinations are risky. That tragedy is still probably a less than 1:10000 risk, with most of the other kids under 5 being fine. But it’s emotional and resulted in the fluvax guidelines being revised.
The Buttons are a great family and have handled it very well

Agree sypkan

Anti vaxers seem to cover the whole social spectrum, rich, poor, left, right, new age, religious you name it.

The only thing they seem to have in common is they blindly believe whatever they read from unreliable sources these days mostly social media.

BTW. I cant believe i 100% agree with Viclocal and AndyM on something.

That's because on this topic we are all happy to accept the advice of medical experts rather than listening to some kook with a large instagram following.
Fark. Who knew listening to experts was a good thing.

Dr Karl (not gunna spell it) explained in a television interview the other day that the reason he left his career as a doctor in a children’s hospital to become a media personality, was to fight anti vaxxers. 20 years without a death before one died, due the parents stance. He said he wants to make a difference and believed he could make a bigger difference doing what he does now, explaining how shit is

Any thoughts that the so called autism explosion over the last decade or so might be related to some parents being a generation of pill popping, MDMA ravers and the like through the 90,s who are having kids , rather than it being the vaccinations that are being blamed for the issues? never seen any write ups about it , I imagine the true statistics / information would be hard to compile as getting people to admit past drug use would be impossible (new partners, new lives now) but I for one know a few mums these days who partied rather hard back in the day and their kids are definitely not the sharpest tools in the shed, autistic maybe but eggs damaged 10 years before they got fertilised, maybe?

Also finding myself on common ground with Vic local! who would have thought????

Hey Vic, did you have a think about what libertarianism means.