COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Something that doesn't get considered enough in weighing up how good predictions have been is error bars (ie a measure of the uncertainty in the prediction, arrived at by considering the uncertainty in the various inputs that goes into making said prediction - the bit after the "plus-or-minus" in a prediction of the form X plus-or-minus Y).
The error bars in any pandemic related prediction would have been massive, and as Mowgli intimates, if you're maths/models is telling you to expect somewhere within a really wide range of serious infections/deaths, you're probably going to want to prepare for something somewhere near the upper end of that range, rather than risk under-reacting.
Also, the way the media (at least the parts of the media without good science communicators) quotes things ("up to X deaths") makes it sound like there's a strong expectation that such numbers would be reached, whereas the number after the "up to" is more likely to be at the upper end of the error bar/uncertainty range.
Honestly Facto , you don’t even try to hide the fact that you’re just on here to snipe like a little bitch. Always coming in to put a fay jab into anyone after the dust settles.
Look at the above . Not a single reference to the discussion , just pure love of the bitch fight. It’s an everyday occurrence. It makes you look like a limp wristed voyeur with a fetish for ruff stuff. But not too ruff !
I bet you love the pile ons in those all-boy steam rooms .
Cue the reply about projecting AKA the older fool’s version of “ Takes one to know one .”
Pops .....find me a good prediction as an example.
Surely with the entire world discussing nothing but Wuflu there would be dozens of worthwhile examples of modelling ?
I’ve yet to see a single one.
BLOW BLOW'S light in the loafers AND...
Think you're missing my point Blowin. Basically I'm saying that any prediction ought to be taken with a grain of salt, and that consideration should be given as to how much uncertainty is wrapped up in the media-quoted number, and where in the errorbar-/uncertainty-range the quoted number might lie.
And we shouldn't necessarily jump into bashing the experts when we don't have all the info - we don't know how big the error bars on their predictions were. The actual observed numbers could well be inside the range of error, but it appears that they were wrong because the quoted prediction figures were right at the top of that range.
Pops .....What’s the difference between you saying that any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt and me saying that i now have doubt in the experts predictions ?
Same same.
But I got called an armchair expert for saying as much.
"BTW....I’m allowed to contradict. I’m not an expert !" , well played Sir.
I too started ISO early and copped it from folks in my circles who said I was being a chicken little about the whole thing. A big part of what I do for a living is helping organisations plan for the worst, but hope for the best. So naturally I adopt this mindset a fair bit in my personal bubble...
I've got a Sumatra trip booked for October that I'm not that confident will go ahead...
I think there are experts and there are experts. I have much higher faith in the ones with backgrounds in the hard sciences. Economists, especially the macro ones....are the wurst....Why no journalist ever has old mate back on and says "so Barry, you've been predicting every Friday on our show for the last 8 years and turns out 95% of them were signficantly off the mark....how much do you get paid again?". Where I get skeptical is with "experts" that may have a solid set of credentials but have also made a career in the media out of providing their input. They've now created a bunch of financial incentives for themselves to ensure those media requests keep coming. Media does best when what it's presenting is extreme/eye-grabbing. So you can see how perhaps after a while an expert may embellish things. The evidence for this often crops up when much of the folks from their own discipline role their eyes at the mention of them.
Thus unfortunately we're unlikely to see the most even-keeled ones get an invite to appear on Sunrise....or promoted to the head of an international body ha!
Difference is that I'm not saying to have doubt in the experts, rather to look beyond the simple numbers quoted by the media and realise that there's a world of complexity behind that.
There's a difference between the whole prediction and the simple number the media gives you. Like there's a difference between a press conference and a soundbite.
And please don't think I'm having a go at you, I was more musing on the way that we/people in general tend to fixate on this or that number quoted by the media as if it was intended to be gospel truth, without realising that the actual predictions are much more fuzzy.
tylerdurden & crew are right to discuss this dumbing down of Crisis data.
Day 1 / World Corona HQ $250m WIV - Shuts doors & says fuck off!
To this day no media or leader can remember the name nor locate it on their app.
Oz has largest / Distance / Ocean / Desert - Halos that ALL others do die for.
Oz can further boast Antarctica if stats need some extra icing.
Oz 1.5m SD policy was scariest vs Distant (US 1.8m + NZ /Europe/Asia 2-2.5m)
Resulting in Oz bashed up women winning DV contest (No contest there!)
The virus is born of colder mammals & spikes in colder climates.
Colder clustered North was drawing people together so proved a perfect storm.
Each Northern family hugs tighter due to population squeeze.
The warmer weather pushes people further apart.
Note 'Warmer' Darwin / Texas had shortest Lockdowns of all the larger world.
Frontier Oz families and populace keeps sprawling apart.
We don't see covid Economic / Geographic arable density counts like Census.
Density data is perfect for Social Distancing Hot Spots...where is that then...
It's not like we don't have computers...(Skill sets for a census but not for a virus?)
Just repetitive mindless Teenie Top 40 & Hot 100 pop count.
Polls Skyrocket more sparkly apps, all more useless shit for serious virus study.
All know where their virus started, that's why they're sparing us the details.
Mowgli, good points re experts and experts.
Mowgli....totally agree.
There’s experts and there’s experts. Like you said....hard science.
I’ve also got very little faith in any modelling which isn’t portraying a a perfectly controlled environment with utter certainty over every input .
Economics is a piss take. When economic modelling is taken as proof of anything it’s a mondo piss take.
Blindboy provided a link to “ definitive “ modelling which showed that mass immigration only raised house prices by a certain percentage such as 1 percent per annum or something equally ridiculous. Then took any contrary opinion of the subject as a virtual declaration that you were a flat Earther. Worst ever.
I'm not sure if it has been shared here before but I found a good summary page of which countries are winning, which are trying hard, and those that are still pretty-much-totally-rooted.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries?fbclid=IwAR1G94NXD-I7pQdtE0c6Mi...
We are learning all the time about Covid and the info spreads around the medical community almost instantly, basically acting like a human artificial intelligence if you know what I mean.
A component of the disease is a micro-vascular occlusion and often people don’t need to be intubated to survive, even though their oxygen levels are very low.
Have a look at the curves, death rate around the world flattening but incidence increasing at same rate.
Some countries that have commenced the increase in cases late have very low mortalities, possibly because of increased info regarding optimal treatment.
The stats no doubt are confusing and sometimes contradictory but provided each country is consistent in their individual approach then trends are likely to be an accurate reflection of the truth
"....At that stage the models had typical virus spread to go on, broken info coming from China (and already whispers we weren't getting the full story), and the most recent and relatable example being SARS-COV-1...which had a mean death rate of 11% in the end. If you're a pandemic modeller, and Mr/Mrs Government comes to you in mid-January and says "Ok Dr Blowin, how bad could this be?" You're probably going to err on the side of caution and give a large number....better safe than sorry eh?"
very true, modelling all over the place at that time, sars cov-1 was best model for models, turns out death rate much lower but possibly much more contagious it seems. not too mention much more mysterious
"...Though I'm with you on whether the head honchos at the WHO perhaps need to hand in their resignations. It begets questions concerning their governance systems when they simply parrot what China told them about the situation."
not only parroted, but praised china's transparency, does destroying evidence and silencing/taking out doctors count as 'transparency'. bizzare behaviour from an organisation such as WHO
"...Mind you, I'm sure a not unwholly reasonable defence might be "what other info are they supposed to go on?". However, it does appear something is amiss at the top of the WHO when they continue to take China's side, even when there's enough unverifiable evidence (because the CCP wants it that way) to suggest China covered it up, continues to do so, and its actions probably made the situation worse."
no probably
...you had one job to do!
".. I mean, that interview by the Hong Kong journo and her questions about Taiwan's expulsion from the WHO was extremely concerning to put it mildly."
very telling, uncomfortably so...
"...Something that doesn't get considered enough in weighing up how good predictions have been is error bars (ie a measure of the uncertainty in the prediction, arrived at by considering the uncertainty in the various inputs that goes into making said prediction - the bit after the "plus-or-minus" in a prediction of the form X plus-or-minus Y).
The error bars in any pandemic related prediction would have been massive, and as Mowgli intimates, if you're maths/models is telling you to expect somewhere within a really wide range of serious infections/deaths, you're probably going to want to prepare for something somewhere near the upper end of that range, rather than risk under-reacting."
I think a big problem is lack of transparency with the models, we see a similar problem with cc I'm reluctant to say. the models are always locked away, and poorly represented. there was a massive weeks long stoush about scomo and cmo releasing the models, they eventually agreed to release them, then they didn't, they think the public cannot cope with the info. overload and doomsday scenarios it seems.
this secrecy and mystery re. models just feeds into this lack of confidence, and conspiracy climate we are living in. show the models, a few distinct scenarios, error bars and assumptions explained, and stop censoring alternative models. explain away the libertarian private doc. practice model's biased data, don't just delete it and expect no questions. not picking pops, just discussing, and yes you're right re. media, all over the shop, models and media are a volatile mix
"...Surely with the entire world discussing nothing but Wuflu there would be dozens of worthwhile examples of modelling ?
I’ve yet to see a single one."
yep, just plain weird, and suspicious, considering all the talk of modelling
"...Economics is a piss take. When economic modelling is taken as proof of anything it’s a mondo piss take."
economic modelling and its various dubious proponents have a lot to answer for
the public, the media, and the experts need to get smarter about models. the presentation, purpose, and especially limitations of such models. have some fucking faith in the public, they're much smarter than the patronising expert and professional apparatus class gives them credit for, hence the public acting well before scomo got his shit together
it was a not convinced, not satisfied with the scomo narrative public educating themselves that averted this catasrophe as much as anything else
...so far...
"We don't see covid Economic / Geographic arable density counts like Census.
Density data is perfect for Social Distancing Hot Spots...where is that then..." - tbb
Great point. That would be very interesting to see. Slicing it by seasonal weather, perhaps even dominant political ideology would prove insightful. I guess the issue as everyone is noting is the inconsistency in data collection methods, which themselves are changing. Making it really tough to compare even those headline figures, let alone analysing with various other lenses.
I can understand the reluctance to release models publicly with those qualified being present to "moderate" the conversation; having had personal experience with this. By moderate I don't mean control, but rather be present to explain every little thing about the model and answer questions etc. Without that, all takes is for some fuckwit celebrity chef to start spouting fucken drivel or a footballer's wife to mention how this variable in the model is really the 5G signal and hey presto, you've got yourself an absolute shit show where the ability of the average punter to maintain even a semblance of confidence (even if it's somewhat blind) that "the authorities have probably got this babe" plummets. And that's a segue to the second/real reason they don't release the models...
Trust....So very much of what keeps a large and complex modern society relatively functional is based on trust. Rule of law. Stopping at red lights. Law enforcement. Lineup etiquette. These are all, at their core, based on trust amongst the various actors that the other participants in the system, for the most part, can be trusted to do what is expected of them AND that the system corrects the behaviour of those that don't (maybe that only works in the Pipe lineup). Erode that trust, and things fall apart very quickly with very grave consequences. If models are released, and in the ensuing shit show of misrepresentation and misunderstanding - and minus even a bit of just wilful and fair acknowledgement that these are flawed beings working with imperfect/incomplete data on these models of a very complex and dynamic world - the broader public's faith (trust) in the authorities capacity to manage this reasonably well for the most part is eroded below some critical threshold (probably nigh impossible to know what that is until after the fact though)....things would probably be much worse than they are now. I don't even mean just in terms of infections and deaths. I mean more broadly across society. I don't mean The Walking Dead type chaos, but more so "pick a country from the bottom 20 of a countries ranked by corruption or quality of life list" type shit show.
As much as I think ScoMo is an arrogant fuck who can't seem to give a presser without that smirk, and the NeoLibs have fucked mine and the next generation and all the rest for the next 100 years, I'd still rather this shit show than one of those near the bottom of one of those lists! Could do without the crowds in the surf though....
One of the problems with a league table is there are just so many variables. Perhaps the most important being how much warning countries had. Iran got hit early while Sweden had plenty of warning. While Iran has four times the infections, there's a pretty good argument that Sweden's response was very poor, while Iran responded better.
The other problem is we live in a post truth world. It's not like governments aren't going to interpret any league table without bias. Trump was claiming the US infection numbers were, and I shit you not, "a badge of honour". And 40% of Americans would actually believe the Orange Nutter.
No government has performed perfectly, but the ones ruled by anti-science strongmen have performed appallingly. The criminal negligence of Trump, Putin, Bolsonaro and Johnson, have put tens of thousands of their citizens in early graves. The fact these people refuse to admit mistakes just compounds their countries' problems, and their guilt. Hopefully the voters in Brazil, USA, UK and Russia kick these nationalistic bums out at their next elections. And more importantly, hopefully these clowns actually accept the result and don't go full dictator.
Bit ironic . The only reason Boris got elected was because the UK left refused to respect the result of Brexit and the US Democrats just spent the last three years engaged in a couple of coup attempts cause they didn’t respect the election results which put Trump into office.
"...US Democrats just spent the last three years engaged in a couple of coup attempts"
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahh Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
The idiot right strikes again.
If you believe that, you're probably popping a couple of hydroxychloroquine tablets a day.
the constant coup is there for all to see. for someone who calls bullshit a lot you sure talk a lot of bullshit
Watched this a few weeks back and thought it was enlightening . Good to keep an open mind methinks. It makes sense to me that big pharma ( supported by who/Fauci /gates etc) would be opposed to this as it’s a cheap and available treatment which threatens their billion dollar vaccine. And this is why I don’t trust the big pharma crew because they put $$$ over health .
https://m.
&feature=youtu.be tbb's argument is you need a level playing ground or a placebo if you like....
Knock out all Mountains/Deserts/Rivers/Lakes...leave only the urban footprint.
Farming / Timber Roads are universally used for such data...
Density Data base is simply the truest easiest equal measuring base.
Common Tool for resource...Forestry / Farming / Banking or (Tracing a virus)
eg: Australian Density = 3 people / km or # 212 of (215 Dense populations).
(#150 World = 60 people / km) + #202 NZ =18 p / km + #51 UK =275 p / km
http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/countries-by-population-density.php
Note stats vary over the years (Dams = more dense) vs (Quarries = less dense)
This is very real time "Virus reach" accessible by resource over land mass.
With this data, you calculate the given infections / population / sq km comparisons.
No! It's not perfect, but it is truest tested standard to correlate virus spread.
(Apology) This is what tbb meant by economics...(Pure land maths with science)
Banks / AWS-census /Govt Science already have virus Density Data...(Not Media)
Each nation has a real measurable maximum Social Distance for populace.
From there you simply subtract any State forests / limit to world 'Ovals' as cut off.
Most NP's are exempt from Density Data as they are Reserves.
Now you have a base point for world counts on an equal basis without corruption.
We can & should fairly divide Oz / sq km by 1.5m & UK /sq km by 2m.(Yes/No)
Consider: (1.5m in Oz = A date) vs (2m in UK is an o/s holiday)
Social behavioural scientist is needed to balance out the 1.5m vs 2m (Quirks)
tbb explained: DV Dads could now press as close as 1.5m from kids!
tbb also informed: SD reflects Triangulation apps for each country...
The OZ 1.5m applies reverse Psychology to draw people in to ping apps.
Yes! Quite a lot of corrupted Data there...but needs to be sorted...(Seriously!)
What ever Oz decides here is central to o/s counts & others with SD difference.
Next level (Knock out)
Transit counts... Ports / Train /Tram /Bus Stations.
Because Transit Queues > Rails / Seating corrupt data count it is not 'like' data.
Eg: Trains / Trams / Buses Stations are all Sanitised (Safe)
Note: NSW Ruby Princess / WA Artania > Adelaide Airport...(Across the Nation)
Eg: All 'stowaway' Boarding Rails are repeatedly used, stored but never sanitised.
They are not on any cleaners checklist but only thing everyone repeated shares.
Eg: Station Hand Rail 0% hot point vs Stowaway Air/Port Rails {RED HOT POINT}
tbb is saying unless Oz is certain...it will corrupt World stats.(Likely be ruled out?)
Science meets Maths { Explain how Ruby Stats don't corrupt world Data? }
All agree a Global loop as such needs to accommodate the cruise crisis as parallel.
Ships & Planes as own Nations in their own right but not (Trains/Trams/Buses)
By now the true Hot Spots should reveal themselves.(Maybe only small for Oz)
This may represent as 2-4 patients but from same work...check o/s match.
It may be that certain Global Chicken Factories with a similar practice..etc:
Sure! If an app can assist at this point..whatever turns you on.
Target those Towns with SD Teams. Then scale down the Hot Spots.
tbb is not trying to be smart...There is a science that Contact tracers use.
For the record...most Oz carriers are traced within 2-3 days (Very Good!)
Public Health Units have access to Home Security Cams to trace 100 of diseases.
None here are undermining their skills & know they use Density Data & more!
PS: Qld had 500 PHU workers...post Covid Safe app 1,000 workers.
Today Vic did 1st app Test..
Monday (Ping) > Wed ( Notification)
Notification consent was asked & given for One Person + No Test was mentioned?
tbb thinks it was a mock up! (Blood test / results / Consent / Notification - 2 days?)
How come all noted Covid results take 3 days min?
Very dodgy start...where does one search for this new Non Test Mystery compliance
Oh tbb you are a tonic !
I can actually see this as a visual piece of art -a map ? With imagery words n other bits .
brilliant work as usual !
Sypkan, I'm fully with you re needing greater transparency - though that'd best go alongside some effort to raise scientific literacy in the general public. Perhaps having some kind of moderated release of data would've been the way to go, with an effort to properly explain what the data means, like Mowgli suggested.
Another thought to consider, on top of error bars, is the likelihood of there being some form of safety factors in the various publicised predictions too. You don't design a bridge to be able to just take the expected load; you design it to take perhaps 5-10 times that expected load. I'd suspect a similar principle would apply when preparing for a pandemic. Again, I'm no expert in this field either, simply speculating based on my exposure to other scientific fields.
TBB, I reckon that would be really interesting, and you'd surely expect a trend between pop'n density and number of infections/rate of transmission.
I worry for what may be about to hit the slums of India, particularly with the cyclone there too...
Yeah I think Pops is probably explaining some of this better than me.
It's not that there aren't technically literate people across the public spectrum. Where it gets difficult, in my experience, is that they are still a minority. The proportion of people who are intelligent, is far higher. Definitely a significant majority. However, those who would seek to muddy the waters for either personal gain or just the lols of it, are also a minority. But, combine it all and how we know people - most people - emotionally prefer the Bruce Lee philosophy of "be like water"..... find the easy path. That means, if "the haterz" can come up with far easier to digest and accept interpretation of the models and inputs etc, that will gain massive traction in the broader public and fuck everything up. We've seen this writ large with climate science...
Much of the data and inputs and explanations are available for the broader public. The logical rational response would have been to put in a price on carbon at the turn of the century. Didn't happen...because people are not rational. Adam Smith was on the money (pun intended) about some things, but fuck me he was way wrong about how people actually behave (possibly projecting how he thinks onto everyone else).
People are not rational. They resort to heuristics. It's helped us in the first million years of our evolution deal with some fairly basic scenarios. In a fast moving and highly complex modern world (i.e. we've made it that way), many of these heuristics are counter-productive.
In my experience...in some public facing work I've done...you start mentioning factors of safety, error bars, estimate ranges, assumptions, residual uncertainty....I guarantee the majority of people in the room are physically or verbally doing the equivalent of "throwing their arms up in the air". The next step is seeking out the easier to grasp (often requiring minimal action on their part) from someone else.
To sum up Essay #32/900 (oh yeah baby, there's more with this came from!!!!), what I'm saying is "just releasing the models" isn't that straightforward and can be much more counter-productive than one might initially assume.
Mowgli, yup in my experience is as soon as you mention the words "error bar" or "uncertainty" a bunch of people jump in and go "oh, so what you're saying is your data is erroneous/incorrect/wrong" or something similar. As you say, it's not anything to do with a lack of intelligence, just that the terminology/jargon and concepts involved are completely foreign to people without a pretty high level of scientific education.
And there's always gonna be some hustler taking advantage of ignorance to make a quick buck/self promote/whatever else.
Not sure if I'm explaining better, just adding some thoughts prompted by your essays. What you've been writing is pretty clear/straightforward.
cheers. It all sounds very self aggrandizing/righteous/daddy knows best unfortunately.
This is why I talk about trust. Lots of bad actors have eroded that trust. I mean, the government being asked for their modelling that shows supply side tax breaks flow to rest of community....yeah nah we're not releasing our modelling cos nah we don't wanna you just gotta TRUST US....do that enough times and eventually trust in "authority" and models gets eroded pretty quickly and you might be talking generational change to get it back.
Bingo. Nothing more untrustworthy than someone who says "trust me".
Thanks crew, tbb shared Density Data link as we danced around it either way!
Always thought highly of the crew, but all have shifted up a gear & the pace. OMG!
tbb has a few setbacks in reading but is stoked whichever comment or Forum.
Salute to #1 Swellnet...be proud of yourselves crew...way too good! tbb is a fan!
Got just enough fuel in reserve to track down our rascally app.
No point naming the 'Ancestry.com app' as it has nowhere left to hide.
May : iphone issues continue and are still not resolved (Govt keeps trying!)
So many reports on this... Apple new app may resolve it! (below)
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6745024/govt-under-pressure-over-...
11 May- Public Health Unit Testing (May have lost a Qld half app Trial?)
13 May The App is operational? Contact tracing was confirmed?
Deputy "Looking forward to hearing from colleagues how useful it is!" Not right?
14 May DV advocates tirelessly out many tracking loopholes & Ping ID.
All weapons to threaten isolated Parents & Children...Govt offered nothing?
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/expert-finds-tracking-bugs-in-t...
tbb sadly informs of more Lib Govt's DV crimes during Covid-19...Shocking it is!
During May: DV victims are now hesitant to download the app.
Tireless pleas with thoughtful changes to the app to secure all our safety- Ignored!
tbb- Oz has WR covid-19 DV cases & This week the Govt shutdown - DV inquiry
https://theconversation.com/the-senate-inquiry-into-family-violence-has-...
Strike (1)* DV app dangers (2)*WR Covid-19 DV cases (3)*Shut DV inquiry.
( tbb includes Govt defence: )
" The Committee formed the view that conducting another lengthy, broad-ranging public inquiry into domestic and family violence in Australia at this time would be of limited value."
This being the Time of World Record Australian Domestic Violence Crisis. (Kill me!)
(Inquiry was to run until Mid August)
No Specialist Consult / Submissions / Personal Stories (You can all fuck off! Thanx!)
Scomo! World's #1 women hater 3 x in a row!
We real men say...sorry mate: It's time for you to Go!
tbb is not sorry how ugly any of that sounds...how could any not see it or call it out!
14 May- Tech Gurus say Phones crash instead of handshake the Bluetooth
Reminding users they must Update the Govt app repairs along the way.
19 May - Oz Govt : "It's not operating as it should!"
6 million app downloads
NSW Health: "Nope! Can't use the Data from the app to trace contacts!" Sorry!
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-health-claim-australia...
20 May- Fed Heath Minister still claims all states are operational.
Despite no tests & NSW saying they're not getting the data.
20 May- Vic Download app > Mon-Tested Positive > Consent to Data Share >
PHU tracked down all known persons > Downloaded app data +Wed' new contact.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/covid-safe-app/vi-BB14nYEB
PHU (pressured) officer: 'That's good news isn't it?'
Sounds like a test...to iron out NSW end.
Civic Point was being made that only NSW / Vic need the app!
21 May - COVID-Safe app vs COVID-19 app
tbb earlier reported of these upgrades + Do overs.
So far 22 countries, including Australia commit to COVID-19
COVID-19 is said to cure the plague besetting the Govt's COVID Safe app
COVID-19 - Stores data on own phone vs AWS Sydney Think Tank.
Authorities remain unaware of Anonymous Owner decides on contacting >
Authorities remain unaware of Anonymous Exposed >
Apple / Google prompt Exposed to 'Share' Phone / Details with Health
Basically API / app will fix iphone...
Govt will not wish to surrender AWS Spy warehouse.
Apple/Google believe more would download app if it was less centralized.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-21/google-apple-technology-help-coro...
Wasn't this lock down sold to us to avoid a catastrophic impact on our health system from peak COVID-19... I.e. Flatten the curve. That is so far in the rear view mirror now, remind me why are all these rules and regulations still in place...?
It's because medical experts, way smarter than you and I, are recommending a slow easing of restrictions. If you don't like it, move to Brazil or the USA.
Prof Paul Kelly, "From a medical point of view I can't see why the borders are still closed,"
So why Vic? I get this is just one example of a raft of 'rules' but non the less a medical expert way smarter than you asking the same question as me?
Shortenism, You do realise there's differing medical opinions on this matter. Governments need to weigh up the advice and not just cherry pick the advice they want to hear. Even if it's 50:50 I want my government to err on the side of caution because getting it wrong the other way has much bigger consequences.
Ardern was copping shit from RWFWs for locking NZ down hard and early. I think we can all accept she was right. NZ is now in an amazing position with 100 person events and a ski season without restrictions. Trump picked the advice he wanted to hear and the USA is a shambles.
Total lockdowns are great if you never want to re-open ever again.
"Total lockdowns are great if you never want to re-open ever again."
Let's calmly compare the situations in NZ and USA.
NZ went into a near total lockdown and are now in a position to open up their economy faster than any nation on earth. Yes there was short term pain but their long term future is bright.
The USA dithered, their economy has been crushed and 95,000 people have died (at a bare minimum). Reopening the USA will kill people and it's being rammed home by a vile and incompetent Trump administration. The Republicans are cutting unemployment benefits (go back to work or starve) while protecting employers if people get Covid 19. It's a hell of a shit sandwich for workers in the USA. Starve or risk getting Covid 19. Republicans really are a pack of bastards.
Whats going to happen with the re-open is the question?
Whats going to happen in N.Z.,Australia or anywhere else as soon as they re-open their borders??
You reckon any one is gonna be stoked to see a plane full of American/Chinese or Taswiegan's meat workers fly in?
Let me guess?It'll all be good with app and a vaccine??
The medical system, specifically the ICU’s and ventilators, are very unlikely to get overwhelmed from here on, even with an easing of restrictions. If the cases start to increase again then the government will simply return to a near full lockdown. This is unlikely to happen though.
The problem is a world wide shortage of PPE and medicines. Once worldwide cases get to 10 000 000 or so demand for these things will outstrip supply. The worlds producers will simply not be able to keep up no matter how hard they try.
A surge in cases in Australia in say 1-2 months could exhaust our local supply of equipment and drugs and have a very significant impact on our health system, even if the ICU’s are not full. The consumption of PPE in managing a Covid case in hospital is extraordinary.
Therefore the govt is being very conservative with its easing of restrictions until the situation around the world becomes clearer in the next few months, both in terms of total case numbers and long term availability of PPE and medicines.
So it’s not as simple as saying our numbers are down, let’s reopen society
"This is unlikely to happen though"
Why is it unlikely to happen?
All this only started from one case, and all the cases in Australia only started from a handful of cases.
You only need a few infected people to slip under the radar and outbreaks happen.
I dont know if you have noticed but ive been surprised to see how people in some cases have just slipped back into old habit and many not social distancing as they should.
@troppo dichotomy
"Let me guess?It'll all be good with app and a vaccine??"
Please dont tell me you are an anti vaxer?
ICU's and ventilators are unlikely to get overwhelmed for a number of reasons:
1. Treatment has evolved into non-intubation oxygen therapy unless absolutely needed.
2. Anti-viral therapy and potentially other treatments are being shown to slow or reverse the progression of the disease
3. ICU beds and ventilators has been significantly increased since the start of March
4. If case numbers increase again we'll go back into full lockdown early.
Having said that, transmission from now on is likely to be more community based with no known source, which is harder to manage from a contract tracing point of view. And one large gathering (ie live sport or theatre/concerts) can result in literally thousands of cases.
Either way, I am confident that if Covid cases start to go up rapidly then the ICU system will not get overwhelmed.
Big problem is if PPE and essential drugs like propofol and muscle relaxants are all being consumed massively in other countries then Aust will simply not be able to buy them because they won't exist...then the medical system will fail for other reasons.
A small surge may still break the system if all our PPE and essential medications are gone. Therefore our case numbers have to be kept very low until a few of these variables are clarified
No not anti vax m8, i am vaccinated and so are my children.
i dont get the flu shot and i dont get the flu.
i dont hold hopes for a vaccine.viruses mutate and vaccines can exacerbate resistance.
I had Vivax in 2004.The older crew i was surfing with had already dealt with Malaria.Their advice was good and wise,the most common pharmie's recommended was primaquine combined with quinine.After a blood test at a hospital I went to every apotik and the only meds i could get in Indo were chloroquine and primquine.
Was cured for ten days and then had a relapse.
I got back to oz and researched.Found out large areas of south east asia had become resistant to chloroquine treatment of Malaria.Primaquine the U.S. Navy drug,it worked but i couldnt get it anywhere in Indo?
I did my homework and afterwards always traveled with anti-malarials.The Falciparum was next but thats a different story........
OZ/NZ Rapid Research Information Forum
* May see a resurgence of the Outbreak in winter
* May face an annual Winter coronavirus season
All science points to the virus being born from several Colder climate species.
Science reports Flu / Vaccines > Virus spike in Colder weather .
Oz Govt say the two viruses survive together.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8267799/Scientists-warn-Austral...
Spanish Flu died down in Oz then 2nd wave grew bigger in Winter.
The north are emerging from their winter as we enter a cautious cool climate.
This is why those in the know are treading really really slow!
School of thought suggests we may peak again & more so towards end of Winter.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/how-the-cold-impacts-coronavirus-and-what-it...
Indo, I choose to not get the flu shot, never have and never will. Doesn't mean I'm an 'anti vaxxer' in the sense of the term. Its clearly a very divisive term, especially in your context. Ppl make up their own mind and that is important. Your note to troppo 'Please don't tell me you're an anti vaxxer'....? WTF. The more I read your sentiment on here, the more I get this vision in my head of you as one of those white storm troopers in the Star Wars movies who wants everyone else to be a storm trooper, just like they are. How many ppl who choose not not be vaccinated call you out or question you for being vaccinated? I bet none, cos on the whole they probably don't give a shit about your choices and you shouldn't about their's. Vaccinations like sex MUST be subject to choice & consent and that should be protected.
VIC, bottom line here in OZ, is that we went into lock-down for a reason, which has now passed. This 'new normal' was always about 'new rules' and control. Surely the most one eyed COVID-19 converts are starting to see that now? There has to be a point that we just move forward. But its obvious it wont come that easy. Predictably, COVID-19 will keep flaring up just enough to maintain the fear and control...
I don't get a flu shot either as I'm not a high risk type group or not relevant to my work, like say my wife who works in aged care, if i was though, id have no issue in getting a flu shot.
And obviously id have no issue with a proven safe and effective Covid-19 vaccination.
But do you get other general vaccinations? (or boasters for travel etc)
Or if you have a child or if you had one would you get vaccinations for them?
I get all the vaccinations i need for travel and general life and have vaccinated my child.
The problem with anti vaxers thinking is the lack of understanding of how important it is for a certain percentage of the population to get vaccinated to really combat certain diseases etc (herd immunity)
Basically when you are vaccinated you are not just helping yourself you are helping society as a whole, while an antivaxer is the opposite and if too many people follow antivaxer thinking, we end up back in a developing country scenario with infectious disease outbreaks.
Countless diseases are virtually not existent in developed countries because of widespread vaccination, while in many developing countries people still suffer or even die from these diseases.
BTW. Honoured to be compared to any Star Wars character even a storm trooper.
Indo - “Basically when you are vaccinated you are not just helping yourself you are helping society as a whole, “
Why don’t you get the flu shot then?
From Health NSW - Influenza (flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. Most people recover after a few days but for some people it can be fatal. An influenza vaccination each year provides the best protection against influenza.
Troppo- I also had malaria in Indo back in the late 90's. Unfortunately I got both vivax and falciparum at the same time. Was in Sulawesi. I'd done a visa run via the Philippines ( another story ) and when I got back wet season was starting to kick in.
War in East Timor was happening at that time and there were reports of stabbings of foreigners in the south of the island. I was staying mid north in pretty remote area. Many of the locals were getting malaria but would treat with "daun papaya' ( paw paw leaf ). Me being the naive and intrusive westerner wanted to "help" them ( know better now) and tried to get couple of teenage boys to local doctor to get chloroquine shot as I thought they might die. One or two got one one ran off I think.. they were scared. Then I got it ( ha karma) i was sick.. really sick.. it was my turn to get taken on back of motorbike to local dokter. I was sweating, high fever aching all over , hallucinating etc. managed to just walk into doctors house without collapsing then saw the ready made syringe on the table. The colour was a browny green inside. I asked him " apa in?" (whats is this?) he said " untuk malaria" ( for your malaria) but to me it just didn't look right didn't feel right.. the vibe.. was off. so I asked him again what was inside it I wanted to know exactly what this concoction was.. he just kept saying " for malaria" .I don't know if it was that I was being paranoid or hallucinating or what.. but I just couldn't bring myself to do it.. that greenish gunk in the syringe didn't look like something I wanted put into my body not matter how shit I felt. So with my tail between my legs I walked out. In my head I thought it would be easy to just kill me and take my passport and cash and nobody would ever know as I was travelling solo. The locals of course weren't happy. I was a complete hypocrite in their eyes. I went back to my little room to hide and lie down where I went further downhill.
The next morning I walked out to go to the toilet and everything went white I couldn't see properly and my neck went stiff.. it was so intense it felt like I was starting to go into some sort of paralysis. I collapsed and vaguely remember being bundled up in a sarong and put on a small outrigger canoe then on a bigger crowded boat surrounded by old women all looking at me. then a horse and cart to a village hospital where I surrendered and they took my blood. I was still freaking out and actually escaped via horse and cart to find a wartel ( phone box) to try and call someone in australia. didn't recognise any of the numbers or names in my little book so just rang one randomly. the person answered ( a good friend of mine) and asked who it was but I couldn't respond because I couldn't remember who I was didn't know my own name. They asked more questions and eventually figured out who I was..contacted the embassy etc to let them know and try to find out where I was because even that I didn't know. I went back to the hospital where they gave me chloroquine tablets ( it was a basic hospital no drips ) if you wanted to eat you had to have someone - family or friend bring you food. I stayed there for 2 weeks taking cholorquine every day and one of the local villagers brought me food and slept on the floor beside me while I slowly recovered. even a local from the street outside brought me roti and a paw paw. The kindness I felt from those people I will never forget.
Finally an " ambulance"( a truck with a mattress in the back) arrived and I was transported to bottom to Ujung pandang which took 14 hours or more because huge rocks had fallen down cliff and so there were road blocks etc. I had also managed to get a serious ear infection as well so yeah that road trip was somewhat hellish. From there I flew to Bali went to a western tourist style hospital for follow up and then convalesced for the next 4 months as I had severe anaemia.
Have never had a relapse or re-occurance. I had heard that many malaria had become resistant to chloroquine. I also heard hideous stories regarding larium and was glad I never took it. I do wonder about the daun papaya and in hindsight I think I would've done a lot of things differently. I am forever grateful though to those locals who took care of me when I could have possibly died.. and yeah it opened my eyes up to say the least.
Gnarly story Salty!
Yeah one of me friends came back from H.T.'s with both strains running at the same time.deathly pale and chewing on his tongue.he looked so fucked up!
I was lucky to get cerebral a 2years after i got the vivax.I was traveling with meds and nuked it right away after a blood test.People also told me to stay away from larium.It was nice for me to get advice from friends who'd already been on the journey.The headaches and hallucinations lived up to its cerebral title.
The artemisinin's worked well for me.
Troppo- yeah that’s interesting re artemisinin as I just bought some plants the other day . Had it growing years ago actually got huge and and took over too much of garden so pulled it out to make way for other plants , but revisiting again . Great to know compound gd for falciparum. Fascinating too regarding Madagascar’s use of it to treat cov . Glad you pulled through from the falciparum it’s not a fun one !
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia