The United States(!) of A
flollo wrote:Absoltely. The other thing we need to think about is protection of trading routes to Australia. Wether we like it or not, we produce very little domestically. We would struggle with basics if those routes were to be cutoff. We need to bring industry back for strategic reasons, even when it doesn't have a compelling economic case. I can see that being discussed in Trump's policy as well, it's not all about economics.
Also having our emergency fuel reserved in USA not a great plan.
Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does.
I’ve been busy surfing jeffy , it doesn’t take long to read reputable news articles about what’s going on , much quicker than YouTube. Why have you changed your tune from “ invasion “ to tariffs?
Trump said he wouldn’t rule out military action against Greenland and Panama ,at a news conference months ago, he also threatened to use the US military to wipe out Mexican drug cartels in Mexico
So maybe he didn’t actually say invade Canada , I don’t think I did either,
But if you missed all the others stop trolling me
And if you were surfing and had no idea what was happening, you are using your ignorance once again.Oh you definitely wrote that the US was going to invade those countries, that’s why I called you out about it , no reputable news sources were saying this but your TDS has you making shit up . Yes Trump did say he couldn’t rule out using military force in answering a two part question. Most people understand that Trump answers stupid questions with stupid answers and plays the media . Then the grifters make videos that brainwash people into believing and saying all kinds of kooky statements , but yeah I’m the slow one .
Yes glad you agree,you are the slow one,
If everything Trump says is a joke and no one should take him seriously , why is the US stock markets crashing ? And our superannuation dropping ? From uncertainty from Trumps on again off again Tariff threats , he may only be joking, but the rest of the world can’t afford to ignore his “ jokes”. like you think everyone should.
And you definitely wrote There was no proof that Tulsi Gabbard had been to Syria and met with Assad and Putin and that Trump had said he couldn’t rule out using military force against Panama and Greenland ,
Your a vindictive troll that can never be wrong,
forever, bringing up your past grievances .
@sypkan and Indo said some things that weren’t true before the election
I probably did too
But I’m not going to keep bringing it up every day like some spoilt brat.
andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
Hi flollo,
I have read half the doc you posted. Not easy reading but a few things stood out for me so far.
First he is being quite optimistic with Trump's policies, hence being made chairman.
One thing that stuck out for me was the passage regarding the USD as world currency reserve so they can as per article:
''America can, and does, sanction people all over the globe in a variety of ways. From freezing assets to cutting nations off from SWIFT and restricting access to the U.S. banking and financial system that is critical for any foreign bank doing global business, the U.S. exerts its financial might to achieve foreign policy ends of weakening enemies without having to mobilize a single soldier.''Would this not further increase the chance of countries uniting to go for an alternative currency etc for trade? As Brics have discussed etc. Any potential here to challenge petro dollar?
Further on the article
""America provides a global defense shield to liberal democracies, and in exchange, America receives the benefits of reserve status—and, as we are grappling with today, the burdens.""
The USA seems to be losing the liberal democracy tag very quickly. Surely some countries may start to push back if the US is no longer seen as the beacon of democracy, but a country that supports an active genocide and deports people partaking in peaceful protest.
They have pissed off their close allies already Australia included.
Will this as written below from article still be the case?
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'Then on top of tariffs against traditional allies they:
""threatened to punish countries that move away from the dollar. I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners.""
Could this just further strengthen and encourage countries looking towards BRICS etc?
And finally from what I have managed to read so far;
""Countries that want to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella. Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs against China, creating a multilateral approach toward tariffs.""
This is not great for Australia, it looks like we would have to choose between losing our biggest trading partner with horrendous economic implications, or be excluded from the US's defence umbrella, there goes AUKUS.
Anyway, sorry to others if this is too long, but find it quite interesting and frightening.
What it does do me is scream out Australia has to become more independent defence wise asap, piss off AUKUS and endeavour to keep good relations with our Asian neighbours as our future prosperity lies there.I reckon personally coming from admittedly incomplete knowledge and understanding that this will not end well for the people of the USA. Only hope it stays there and doesn't spread and bring down the rest of the world's economy.
Some good observations there. Like you said, the US sanctions countries they don't 'agree' with. That often comes through financial limitations or even like in Russia's case cutting them off SWIFT system. You will probably see BRICS building a SWIFT alternative first. This will help them avoid any future sanctions. Building a currency is a big beast of work. I mean you can build a currency but then providing enough liquidity to fuel world's growth is an enormous undertaking. I don't see it happening anytime soon but I do see a SWIFT alternative being developed in near future. We also can't ignore the fact that the US, the EU and China are world's biggest trading partners. As much as they might hate each other, business and individuals will keep on trading no matter what happens politically.
You questioned if this is still the case:
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'
I would say that stability and the rule of law is seriously challenged but market depth and liquidity are unparalleled and are still the best in the US. Depends how it plays out. Look what happened in the UK after Brexit which was an extreme isolationist moment. In my opinion, the country as a whole lost but London didn't stop being the world's mega finance centre. The US won't be any less than that, money will still flow but that is not a guarantee of better standard of living.
Your observation about Australia being wedged between the US and China. Yes, you are 100% spot on. This is a massive risk for us. We should be arming ourselves to the teeth, independently. I don't trust the US. And I obviously have zero trust in China. I know it might sound extreme but I even think that Australia might need nuclear weapons stationed here. The US defense shield assumes their nuclear weapons. Japand and Germany are a good example. What do you think that one of the first things Germany did as this shit went down? Started negotiating with the UK and France about getting covered under their nuclear weapons. I'm reading similar rumours about Japan but they will have to buy their own.
Cheers flollo,
Yes I agree, never would I have thought that Australia should go down the nuclear weapon pathway, but my view has/ is changing.
Anyway have said it before, but yes, we need to get our shit together very quickly, so no country even wishes to contemplate trying to attack/ invade. No military background but would be thinking changing our tact to purely homeland defence rather than being able to project power aligned with USA.
Defence missiles, etc
Saying that I cannot see China invading or attacking unless we were partaking in an operation with the USA.
Hence the wedge, we may be forced by the US to be involved.
Still believe they are a trading nation looking to increase their standard of living for their citizens to ensure there is not domestic issues.
War would not be good for business. But that does not stop Australia from making it unthinkable for them or any other nation to give it a crack.
yep
never in my life thought I'd say it...
but sadly we most definitely need as a deterrent strategy
same with power, I don't support dutton's brain fart at all, but I believe we need to be developing some nuclear capacity even if it's just for the know how and development
I think labor is totally missing the zietgheist here and we will see this in the upcoming campaign, sadly I think their go to obtuseness and dismissiveness will leave them exposed
don't really think dutton'll get over the line atm, but it's gonna be close and nasty
labor need to lift their game
they have an air of dutton is unelectable arrogance about them
which is true
but it's also the only thing saving their arse...
by microns
andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:Absoltely. The other thing we need to think about is protection of trading routes to Australia. Wether we like it or not, we produce very little domestically. We would struggle with basics if those routes were to be cutoff. We need to bring industry back for strategic reasons, even when it doesn't have a compelling economic case. I can see that being discussed in Trump's policy as well, it's not all about economics.
Also having our emergency fuel reserved in USA not a great plan.
Absolutely to all this - having that virtual 'strategic reserve' was just BS and no substitute to our own tanks on our own soil.
We lost most of our refineries as economies of scale and bigger, newer plants in Asia made them less competitive - that's all fine and well if trade routes are open. Would also suggest get some coal-to-diesel capacity in QLD and Gippsland, Fischer-Tropsch I think is the method to do this. Most of Australia gets delivered on diesel.
As for a nuclear deterrent, yes, been saying this for a while.
flollo wrote:Absoltely. The other thing we need to think about is protection of trading routes to Australia. Wether we like it or not, we produce very little domestically. We would struggle with basics if those routes were to be cutoff. We need to bring industry back for strategic reasons, even when it doesn't have a compelling economic case. I can see that being discussed in Trump's policy as well, it's not all about economics.
Trade routes we can convoy - if we have enough ships. The 'keeping sea lanes open' bit can more precisely be called 'keeping a set piece of ocean protected at a set time so supplies can get through'.
One of the most famous convoy efforts of all time was breaking the siege of Malta, and keeping Malta going in WW2. With efforts like operation Pedestal, they barely got enough ships through and lost so many other ships doing so, but they got enough material through including the famous tanker SS Ohio which broke in two in harbour shortly after getting it's oil transferred from all the damage it sustained.
Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does.
I’ve been busy surfing jeffy , it doesn’t take long to read reputable news articles about what’s going on , much quicker than YouTube. Why have you changed your tune from “ invasion “ to tariffs?
Trump said he wouldn’t rule out military action against Greenland and Panama ,at a news conference months ago, he also threatened to use the US military to wipe out Mexican drug cartels in Mexico
So maybe he didn’t actually say invade Canada , I don’t think I did either,
But if you missed all the others stop trolling me
And if you were surfing and had no idea what was happening, you are using your ignorance once again.Oh you definitely wrote that the US was going to invade those countries, that’s why I called you out about it , no reputable news sources were saying this but your TDS has you making shit up . Yes Trump did say he couldn’t rule out using military force in answering a two part question. Most people understand that Trump answers stupid questions with stupid answers and plays the media . Then the grifters make videos that brainwash people into believing and saying all kinds of kooky statements , but yeah I’m the slow one .
Yes glad you agree,you are the slow one,
If everything Trump says is a joke and no one should take him seriously , why is the US stock markets crashing ? And our superannuation dropping ? From uncertainty from Trumps on again off again Tariff threats , he may only be joking, but the rest of the world can’t afford to ignore his “ jokes”. like you think everyone should.
And you definitely wrote There was no proof that Tulsi Gabbard had been to Syria and met with Assad and Putin and that Trump had said he couldn’t rule out using military force against Panama and Greenland ,
Your a vindictive troll that can never be wrong,
forever, bringing up your past grievances .
@sypkan and Indo said some things that weren’t true before the election
I probably did too
But I’m not going to keep bringing it up every day like some spoilt brat.
Now you are just blatantly lying, if I definitely wrote that about Tulsi then it would be on these pages , but guess what jeffy , it’s not here . Have you thought about putting on your harry high pants , strutting over to the White House and give Donny a good talking too ? And remember to breathe jeffy . You really need to stop this delusional behavior.
South Korea is also considering developing nuclear weapons.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/03/13/trump-concerns-lead...
@jeffy , the main issue I have with you , is how you interpret what people have written. You have this habit of just making shit up because your interpretation has changed what someone has actually written . Now you don’t believe that you ever said Trump was threatening to invade various countries. “ So maybe he didn’t actually say invade Canada , I don’t think I did either, “ but you have actually written this on numerous occasions, more than these quotes show. 
You kept this up when I asked on more than one occasion “ when does the invasion start “. ? It’s why I put so much shit on your precious MTN .
Hey Guy and Roady..... thanx for reachin out to me a few pages back. I have been catching up here as i have not been around much. At the risk of TMI, i began pissing blood on 2/21. I have had a few procedures and lab work and appointments since, all aimed at ruling out bladder cancer. I went 10 days with docs gently trying to brace me for a super yucky prognosis. My body has not agreed too well with a coupla meds, so vomiting has been a norm. I've lost 12 pounds (sorry for Seppo measurement? lol). I've been in to work a small bit, just to attend to the things nobody else can... but just a coupla hours at a crack. Now i have blown through my PTO (Paid Time Off), so i will hafta shoulder a rough shift here and there. I am at work tonite for full 8 hour shift for 1st time in awhile. Not all is bleak, tho. I have cleared all hurdles and have only 2 more to be declared cancer free. :-) We've adjusted meds so i feel a bit better.
How does politics fit into all this? It doesn't. lol
But i always view stuff from my hot air baloon perspective.
So, much same, same.
I figure i'll be back here again, now that i'm back to work.
So you all will hafta continue to receive my SeppoDumbness. (Seppocity?)
Cheers.
wax24 wrote:Hey Guy and Roady..... thanx for reachin out to me a few pages back. I have been catching up here as i have not been around much. At the risk of TMI, i began pissing blood on 2/21. I have had a few procedures and lab work and appointments since, all aimed at ruling out bladder cancer. I went 10 days with docs gently trying to brace me for a super yucky prognosis. My body has not agreed too well with a coupla meds, so vomiting has been a norm. I've lost 12 pounds (sorry for Seppo measurement? lol). I've been in to work a small bit, just to attend to the things nobody else can... but just a coupla hours at a crack. Now i have blown through my PTO (Paid Time Off), so i will hafta shoulder a rough shift here and there. I am at work tonite for full 8 hour shift for 1st time in awhile. Not all is bleak, tho. I have cleared all hurdles and have only 2 more to be declared cancer free. :-) We've adjusted meds so i feel a bit better.
How does politics fit into all this? It doesn't. lol
But i always view stuff from my hot air baloon perspective.
So, much same, same.
I figure i'll be back here again, now that i'm back to work.
So you all will hafta continue to receive my SeppoDumbness. (Seppocity?)
Cheers.
I hope you are fully recovered ASAP.
Hey Wax, sounds like you got the rough end of the pineapple. Glad the prognosis is looking positive. Stay well.
Oh wow..sorry to hear your troubles. Hang in there, wax.
SN will collectively send great vibes your way.
Both my wife and I have been there done that cancer thing….it fucking sucks so fingers crossed you are cancer free after a few more tests.
Lots of stuff becomes irrelevant when you have a fight on your hands..sickness sucks so bad…light at the end of the tunnel tho.
Stay strong. All the best! Will be thinking about you.
XX
+ 1 @wax!
Get well Waxxy.
(Funny saying Blackers. One of my faves)
Cheers, guys.... (i like the pineapple saying, too Seedsy)
Big fan of your work here on SN Waxxy.
Hope all goes well for ya.
Struth @wax24,
You’ve really been in the wars lately, my heartfelt wish is you get the all clear very soon and you have family and friends helping you through all this.
Cheers mate, best wishes for the future
Get well Mr Wax and wishing you a good recovery, and healing. Pissing blood is no fun, it extra sucks when no-one can diagnose why for 10 years
wax24 wrote:Hey Guy and Roady..... thanx for reachin out to me a few pages back. I have been catching up here as i have not been around much. At the risk of TMI, i began pissing blood on 2/21. I have had a few procedures and lab work and appointments since, all aimed at ruling out bladder cancer. I went 10 days with docs gently trying to brace me for a super yucky prognosis. My body has not agreed too well with a coupla meds, so vomiting has been a norm. I've lost 12 pounds (sorry for Seppo measurement? lol). I've been in to work a small bit, just to attend to the things nobody else can... but just a coupla hours at a crack. Now i have blown through my PTO (Paid Time Off), so i will hafta shoulder a rough shift here and there. I am at work tonite for full 8 hour shift for 1st time in awhile. Not all is bleak, tho. I have cleared all hurdles and have only 2 more to be declared cancer free. :-) We've adjusted meds so i feel a bit better.
How does politics fit into all this? It doesn't. lol
But i always view stuff from my hot air baloon perspective.
So, much same, same.
I figure i'll be back here again, now that i'm back to work.
So you all will hafta continue to receive my SeppoDumbness. (Seppocity?)
Cheers.
All the best mate.
Sending best wishes for quick recovery to health.....
White Supremist , Nick Fuentes
“ your body my choice guy “ has to admit that Democrats were right about Trump!
Rainman says we are off topic
@wax24 , best wishes on recovery mate , enjoy your contributions on here , it was great when a real seppo started posting on the US of A thread.
Oops!! (I tend to do that.. .even when not dying of cancer, lol). Sorry Jeffy, et al....
Back to regular programming.
I saw a video tonite of a coupla motorists in Livermore (inland town here in Bay Area... holds no pull for me). They both got outta car for road rage confrontation. One pulled out a gun and fired four times. The other collapsed, but is expected to survive. A passing car caught it all on a dash cam. This stuff is, of course, not new, but def on the upswing.
MAWWA (Make America Wild West Again)... and to quote the Wonderous George W. Bush... Misiion Accomplished!!!! (it only took 3 election cycles, but that's cuz they were preceded by 20 years of "reality" tv.)
You’re shitting me? That’s so foreign an experience it beggars belief.
Other than the 24/7 news cycle that is here now. And YouTube and socials I’d suppose
All the best Waxy.
Hey Waxy, don't know why I thought of this song, sure you know it, probably my favourite GD song and version.
Health issues just another ripple of life.
Take care....
https://m.
&pp=ygUZZ3JhdGVmdWwgZGVhZCByaXBwbGUgbGl2ZQ%3D%3D True story Andy.... my computer here at work has a firewall that won't allow me to see many of the vids posted here. Especially YouTube! So, if i wanna see any such vids, i hafta go to my phone and log in to check it out. (I find this "shortcoming" to be a great filter of vids, for me.)
Sooo.... when i saw your post just now, i had to get out my phone, and while i did, started humming this song in my head. then opened post, and... i like serendipity.
wax24 wrote:True story Andy.... my computer here at work has a firewall that won't allow me to see many of the vids posted here. Especially YouTube! So, if i wanna see any such vids, i hafta go to my phone and log in to check it out. (I find this "shortcoming" to be a great filter of vids, for me.)
Sooo.... when i saw your post just now, i had to get out my phone, and while i did, started humming this song in my head. then opened post, and... i like serendipity.
Unreal mate.
May life be kind..... :)
Greenland is for the Greenland people. !
?si=npGG7VzFftwmiwcq
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank