The United States(!) of A
indo-dreaming wrote:Big news from the middle east last night.
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/politico/571321?page=101#comment-1017507
Indo at 9:00 last night - “ Look this is the USA thread we are going off topic (Stu will get shitty), ”
Seriously, how this clowns brain works would be a medical mystery..
probably the most inflammatory, insensitive, divisive commenter in the history of Swellnet
Just texting with an Aussie mate in Indiana.
“Everyone here is voting for Trump”
He’s a smart dude. Aeronautical engineer. Married to an American girl. Good with numbers. Doesn’t mind a punt.
*He doesn’t trust the betting odds*
Bear with me on this.
Indiana is a solid Red state. Swung blue for Obama in 08, but back to Red in 12.
538 has Indiana at +11 for Trump.
Polling figures on thehill have +16 for DJT at the start of Sep, but down to +14 at the start of Oct. that doesn’t match the narrative that the momentum has swung to Trump at all, in a place you’d expect it to show…
So, anyway. I think there’s more to it. The gaps between betting odds and polling figures is so off. Whatever partisan polls you look at. Normally they’re consistent with the margin of error. Curious.
Anyone for some trump spunk ?
Supafreak wrote:Anyone for some trump spunk ? https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAbM8O0J70Y/?igsh=dTliazd5dmYyNHF2
Ya gotta wonder whats going on downstairs because there's nothing going on upstairs.
etarip wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:USA election odds update
Still blowing out
Trump 58.1
Harris 40.9
Odds in all swing states now in Trumps favour(Nevada flipped) and odds increased in Pennsylvania.
They are still all very close though but its still a positive trend.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Betting odds yes, but not polling across the board. Weird, huh? Wonder why that is?
The same trend is seen in polling but just not as a radical change.
I guess the betting odds are changing more because its taking into account the fact Trump is just in front in those important swing states. (I get that its such a small led that its almost irrelevant figure wise, but its still about the trend)
Yes they have Harris polling better nationally, but when Trump won, Hillary was polling way ahead of trump, and when Biden won he was polling even further in front and it became pretty close. (I think betting odds are also taking that into account)
So there is a few scenarios
1. The patterns continues with the polls being off favouring Democrats, which means Trump has a very good chance of winning.
2. Something has changed in the polling system and the polling is correct which means it could go either way being in the margin of era.
3. Something has really changed in the polling system to prevent the era of last few years and now its swung the other way and its not showing Harris as high as she should be, which means she wins.
Why in the past have polls not shown Trumps votes accurately?
I guess the simple explanation is there is a stigma in voting for Trump, so when asked people may just say they are undecided or even say Harris instead.
I dont think that stigma has changed, it's possibly increased if anything.
BTW. Im not saying Trump will win, i dont think anyone knows being so close, im just being positive and kind of stoked on the momentum as want Trump to win.
I am trying to look at news sources etc outside of my algorithm bubble looking at CNN and other left leaning media and im still seeing the same momentum narrative or more so concern.
PS. To all the others silly commenters dissing me above and on the last page, i posted a link to another thread, it's not the same as continuing a heated back and fourth in this thread.
The polls are still reflecting a Harris win.
I think Harris will win the popular vote by a decent margin.
I think Trump has a clear chance thru Electoral College.
I’m not sure that the betting odds are not distorted.
The Stigma of saying U like Trump has changed and he is much more Mainstream , than on his First attempt at winning the Presidency !
The Assassination attempt would have helped .
Guessing the Trumps Polls are showing some improvement , so polls this time , MIGHT be more accurate .
The Weight of Money is the Scale/Poll that I Always take more notice of .
As Stalin said , those that count elections , decide the winner .
Betting People , can be wrong .
etarip wrote:The polls are still reflecting a Harris win.
I think Harris will win the popular vote by a decent margin.
I think Trump has a clear chance thru Electoral College.
I’m not sure that the betting odds are not distorted.
Hilary Clinton was 3 million ahead of Trump in the popular vote 2016. Harris could be 4/5 million + ahead of Trump in the popular vote but still lose.
Pop Down wrote:The Stigma of saying U like Trump has changed and he is much more Mainstream , than on his First attempt at winning the Presidency !
The Assassination attempt would have helped .
Guessing the Trumps Polls are showing some improvement , so polls this time , MIGHT be more accurate .
The Weight of Money is the Scale/Poll that I Always take more notice of .
As Stalin said , those that count elections , decide the winner .
Betting People , can be wrong .
In regard to Stigma
You really think so?
Hmmm i think he was always mainstream.
In 2016 he wasn't viewed that badly, just not taken seriously as having a chance.
2020 lots of media and being president lots of stigma.
But i personally think there is more stigma now to say you are voting for him because of how he rejected the election defeat and capital hill and just law suits etc
Give it 2 / 3 years and no one will admit to voting for Trump.
As you said Indo , Trump got lots of Stigma being President .
He NOW has a Track Record , a Score Board 2 point to .
I am guessing the Good , out trumps the bad again .
If Trump can stop the Ukraine / Russian War in 3 months , 2/3 of people in the US will say they Voted 4 him 2 .
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank