Moderate swells inbound with tricky winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 6th)

Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow morning Margs and Mandurah, protected spots Sunday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning in the South West

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell tomorrow with strong but easing S/SE winds ahead of strong S/SW-SW sea breezes
  • Easing surf Sun with mod-fresh S/SE tending strong S/SW-SW winds
  • New moderate sized mid-period SW swell Mon with moderate E/SE-SE winds ahead of sea breezes
  • Easing surf Tue with moderate E/SE-SE winds ahead of sea breezes
  • New small swell Wed with strong S/SW-S winds

Recap

Hot, windy and clean conditions through yesterday but with a small leftover swell in the South West, tiny to the north. Today conditions were clean early but a trough has since brought a cooler onshore change.

This weekend and next week (Jan 7 - 13)

Today's change is linked to a strengthening mid-latitude frontal progression moving in from the west and an initial tight low has generate a small fetch of SW gales, followed by a broader fetch of strong W/SW winds today.

A mid-period pulse of SW swell is due through tomorrow, peaking later morning to 5-6ft across the South West, 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft across Perth into the afternoon.

A temporary drop in size is due through Sunday ahead of a secondary, reinforcing pulse of mid-period SW swell Monday. This will be generated by a secondary front pushing in from the south-west, generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds on top an active sea state.

Sunday looks to ease from 4-5ft in the South West, 1-2ft to the north max, with the pulse Monday kicking back to 5-6ft in the South West, 2ft across Mandurah and a slow 1-2ft in Perth.

Looking at the local winds and a strong but easing S/SE breeze is due tomorrow morning, giving into strong S/SW-SW sea breezes. Sunday looks similar with a moderate to fresh morning S/SE breeze ahead of sea breezes.

Come Monday a better E/SE-SE offshore is due through the morning, moderate in strength before sea breezes kick in late morning/midday, smaller Tuesday and with similar winds.

A small pulse of reinforcing mid-period SW swell is due on Wednesday but below the size of Monday's swell, generated by weaker trailing frontal activity through our swell windows.

A trough moving in from the west looks to bring unfavourable, strong S/SW-S winds though, creating poor conditions.

Longer term unfavourable S/SE winds look to persist through the end of next week and weekend as a stubborn high sets up to our west. This will block our swell windows while also bringing less than favourable conditions.

More on this Monday, have a great weekend!