Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 29th)

Best Days: Sat morning, Thurs morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

•  Pulse of SW swell Sat, with best winds AM, before onshore winds kick in
• Larger pulse Mon but suspect winds
• Onshore winds remain a problem next week
• Stronger SW swell Fri PM, peaking Sat but winds still look suspect

Recap

Some fun waves on offer since the last f/cast with Thursday seeing 5-6ft surf in the exposed breaks of the Margarets region, grading smaller 2ft in Perth, 2-3ft in Mandurah, with a morning offshore wind. Size has dropped right back to tiny/flat today in Perth and Mandurah with some clean morning options in MR in the 3ft range at exposed breaks.

This weekend and next week (Oct 29- Nov5)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast with a coastal trough bringing a flukey variable wind flow Sat, before onshore winds develop through the day as the trough moves inland. A small bump in SW swell sees surf heights up into the 3-5ft range between the Capes, with smaller 2-3ft surf in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth. Best early when winds are at their most offshore. 

Sunday doesn’t look great with tiny surf in Perth/Mandurah, although a small window of favourable winds exists, so if you see a rideable wave get on it. Winds look less favourable in the MR region with more SSW to SW expected as a low approaches. Size in the 3-4ft range will be marginal for more protected spots, so you might need to take a quality hit if you want to get a go out.

Onshore winds then set in through the early half of next week with a small, cut-off low crossing the SW on Mon, followed by a long trailing W’ly flow, as the remnants of a front tip the state.

This front reached peak strength between 100 and 110E through today into tomorrow, generating seas in excess of 20ft. Swell from that source fills in Mon with size in the 5-6ft range building during the day. Expect smaller 2-3ft surf in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. Winds will be poor though, and poor through the middle of the week as the position of the long wave trough and a mid Indian Ocean high direct onshore winds into WA, with a series of rolling disturbances caused my cold fronts being pushed around a polar low slow moving between 90-100E. 

It’s not a great pattern. Pulses from storms tracking between the 90-110E mark are expected to be of similar magnitude through next week, with size in the 4-5ft range arriving Wed, and a slighty bigger pulse in the 6ft range Fri, peaking Sat. Unfortunately these swells will arrive simultaneously with onshore winds. Expect smaller 3ft surf in Mandurah and 2-3ft waves in Perth from these pulses, and slightly better S winds.

Not much change to the pattern going into next weekend, hopefully Craig will be able to deliver better news when he comes back Mon for a fresh update.

Until then, have a great weekend.