Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Size from the E/NE holding into Thurs/Fri with mod/fresh N-NE winds, lighter inshore early and possibly NW
• Bigger increase in quality mid period E swell Sat into Sun
• Low expected to form in Tasman this weekend, bringing a S’ly change Sat AM (offshore early before the change)
• Increasing S swell likely o/night Sat, becoming sizey Sun into Mon
• Energetic mix of S and E swells into Mon next week, with a stronger pulse likely Tues
• Dynamic outlook so stay tuned for revisions 

Recap

Fun waves from the E/NE mostly have slowly increased since Mon with yesterday seeing 2-3ft surf and today up in the 3ft range with the very occ. 4ft set. Winds have been tricky around a stalled trough area, with light breezes tending SW yesterday morning, clocking back around N to NW overnight, then veering SW-S again this morning. Generally conditions have been workable due to light winds. We should see a NE flow become established today and freshen to mod paces in the a’noon. 

A bit bumpy but plenty of energy from the E/NE

This week (Feb 10-14)

An active monsoon pattern is seeing a tropical low drifting in the Coral Sea with a supporting high approaching New Zealand and a slow moving trough line just off the NSW Coast. The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. We’ll see continuing E’ly swells from this source, with a long lasting peak as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend. A trough and low forming in the lower Tasman provide plenty of additional S swell on top of the E swell through the weekend and into next week. 

In the short run we’ll see a mod/fresh N-NE flow through tomorrow. Nothing complex about the outlook- more mid-period E/NE swell (it’s a range of swell periods but mid-period sources will be dominant) in the 3 occ. 4ft range. 

Very similar for Fri. Wave models are actually suggesting a touch under Thursday’s wave heights but any decrease is likely be minimal and offset by shorter period E/NE-NE swell trains, especially in the a’noon. In short, wave heights won’t budge much from 3 occ. 4ft (no step-up required). Expect early NW-N winds tending mod/fresh N/NE through the day. 

This weekend (Feb 15-16)

Still looking dynamic for the weekend as a powerful front, and trough push through the southern ocean and up the NSW coast respectively. Early winds look to be offshore before the S’ly change arrives in the morning- likely across the Illawarra before first light. Winds will freshen from the S to S/SE through the day so you’ll need some wind protection. Thankfully, plenty of E/NE swell to get into those protected corners with a muscling up of better mid period E/NE swell to 3-5ft. We may see a little kick in short range S swell in the a’noon but this will be low quality short period stuff and not worth working around.

Quality mid period E/NE swell persists into Sun with pulsey sets to 3-4ft. We’ll see a much stronger increase in S swell through Sun as various swell trains make landfall. A SW fetch out of Bass Strait, SW-S/SW winds adjacent to Tas and a longer S’ly fetch will all be producing S swell trains. We should see 3-4ft surf at first, building to 4-5ft at S facing beaches during the day. Expect SW-S/SW winds tending S’ly at mod/fresh paces through the day, with a slight easing possible late in the day. 

Next week (Feb17 onwards)

We’ve got some energetic days ahead next week with a combo of S and E swells on the menu. Expect some revisions on Fri but the basic pattern should hold.

As the elongated Tasman Low sets up a long fetch through that area (see below), potentially with a nice slingshot fetch we’ll see plenty of S swell into Mon with a pulse from the slingshot fetch into Tues. At this stage, pencil in 4-6ft Mon, with potential for 5-6ft and bigger sets on Tues. 

The tropical low which becomes slow moving over the weekend may intensify as it approaches the North Island, sending more quality E swell through this period, likely in the 3-4ft range with occ. 5ft sets, with a possibility of some 6ft sets if it behaves at upper end of model expectations.

Still some uncertainty over local winds with a S’ly flow likely Mon, easing Tues and tending NE into Wed.

An easing trend into mid week is expected with more frontal activity possibly supplying some small, reinforcing S swell later next week, although model agreement is poor and thus confidence is low. 

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.