Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday October 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate swells all week, best suited to the Surf Coast with pockets of morning W/NW winds
• Poor surf all week east of Melbourne
• Fun waves at open beaches on Saturday, biggest east of Melbourne
• Sunday looks small and windy
• More fronts and plenty of waves for the Surf Coast early next week

Recap

Small leftovers west of Melbourne on Saturday performed really well east of Melbourne, with clean 3-4ft sets at the open beaches under offshore winds. Sunday was close to flat across most locations with only Phillip Island picking up a few 1-2ft waves early on before the cross-onshore wind picked up. Today has seen poor surf with freshening onshore winds and a mix of slowly building swells across all coasts. Sets are now showing around the 3-4ft mark across the Surf Coast reefs, and more size is possible later.

This week (Oct 29 - Nov 1)

A series of modest fronts skirting the southern states will maintain a westerly airstream for the next few days, which means limited options east of Melbourne - the open beaches will be onshore, and there won’t be quite enough size for protected locations inside Western Port.

As such, it’s a predominantly Surf Coast week ahead, though nothing amazing is expected as the energy sources weren’t terribly strong, nor were they well aligned perfectly within our swell window.

Wave heights are currently trending up at Cape Sorell, so Tuesday morning should see plenty of size as wave heights ease back, with size around the 3ft+ mark across the reefs. 

As for conditions, we should see pockets of light morning W/NW winds allowing conditions to clean up a little before the synoptic W/SW flow returns mid-late morning onwards (with gusty SW winds kicking in mid-late afternoon). I’m expecting a similar trend in the wind both Wednesday and Thursday too.

Surf wise, Wednesday morning will see the arrival of a new swell early on - I’m slightly concerned that it may not be in the water at first light, and that it may only start to show properly mid-late morning (around the same time that the wind swings cross-onshore) - so keep your expectations in check for the dawn patrol.

Otherwise, Thursday morning will be on the backside of Wednesday’s swell increase - sourced from decent front south of WA yesterday that had an impressive W/NW fetch. Aside from Wednesday mornig’s caveat, I’m expecting size to also hover around the 3ft+ mark both days, though most locations will be smaller in size. 

The final front in this sequence is due to cross the region around lunchtime on Thursday, clearing to the east on Friday though lingering onshore winds are likely to finish the week as wave heights gradually ease across the coast. It won't be great but there will be lumpy waves around both coasts for keen surfers.

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Looking like a weekend of two halves - the first super fun across the open beaches (mainly east of Melbourne), with average conditions on Sunday as winds strengthen and surf size bottoms out.

A small polar front sliding below the continent mid-week (see below) isn’t showing up in the wave model output very well, however I think it’ll provide a minor reinforcing swell for Saturday that should maintain peaky, mid-period 3-5ft sets across the open beaches east of Melbourne, and it’ll be clean under moderate NE winds as a high pressure system drifts over the state. 

West of Melbourne will be smaller, down to 2ft or so and fun across the exposed beaches in the morning. 

Strengthening pre-frontal northerly winds on Sunday will probably blow out the small residual leftovers, so don’t plan anything unless you’re desperate.  

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

A strong frontal sequence is expected early next week which should return a spell of fresh westerlies and building swells to the region that’ll favour the Surf Coast nicely. More on this in Wednesday’s update.