Tricky short term outlook with increasing E swells into the weekend and a sizey S also on the radar

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 10th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Tricky winds for Tues and even Wed as trough stalls off Central NSW Coast
  • SW-S likely Tues, before tending SE-NE
  • Still a chance of SW-S Wed, but maybe NW, before tending NE and freshening
  • Chance for chunky NE windswell Tues AM
  • General increase in energetic blend of NE-E/NE swells through Tues into Wed 
  • Size holding into Thurs/Fri
  • Bigger increase in quality mid period E swell Sat into Sun
  • Low expected to form in Tasman this weekend, bringing a S’ly change Sat
  • Increasing S swell likely o/night Sat, becoming sizey Sun into Mon
  • Energetic mix of S and E swells into Mon next week, slowly easing from Tues
  • Dynamic outlook so stay tuned for revisions 

Recap

There were some small, fun waves from the E-E/NE over the weekend, hovering around the 2ft range both days. Winds Sat tended from the N while a trough on Sun penetrated northwards and brought a S’ly change. The trough is still hovering around the Central NSW coast today with early light SW winds now tending S’ly. Winds predictions from the BOM today suggest NE winds through the day but we are likely to see a spread of winds with light SE-NE breezes from Sydney southwards, tending more NE from the Central Coast to Hunter. We’ve got more small E/NE swell to 2ft in the water today. Nothing amazing but there is a grovel for the keen.

Small clean options over the weekend

This week (Feb 10-14)

The Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) remains in full swing with tropical lows strung along the trough line from the Indian Ocean off the Kimberley Coast into the Coral Sea. High pressure at summer latitudes, south of Tasmania, is interacting with a stalled trough off the South Coast and then expected to anchor low pressure drifting down from the Coral Sea. This low intensifies as it tracks slowly through the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island, spraying the East coast with quality E swell. As we enter the weekend a low is expected to form in the lower Tasman, bringing S’ly winds and potentially a significant S swell. Lots to look at, let’s dive in.

In the short run we’ve still got some uncertainty over local winds as the troughy area lingers off the Sydney coast. Offshore winds are likely for the early, with a S’ly component (SW-W/SW) more likely south of Sydney and a more W or even W/NW component from Syd to the Hunter. There is plenty of uncertainty though if the trough wobbles overnight. Surf-wise there is also uncertainty. Some local models (Access and Access-C) are suggesting an o/night intensification of the NE infeed into the trough. If that comes off, we’ll be looking at punchy NE windswell to 3 occ. 4ft. The less bullish models suggestions would see 2ft surf continue. Worth keeping an eye on. Through the day we should see a slight increase in better quality E/NE swell filtering down from the tropical tradewind fetch. Definitely worth a squizz early, even if confidence is only moderate.

NE winds are more likely to be widespread on Wed, lighter inshore early and possibly NW although there is still a possibility we may see a light SW-S flow if the trough lingers. Keep tabs on local winds if you can. Winds should get up to mod/fresh paces through the a’noon as dominant high pressure drifts across the Tasman. A mix of E/NE swells from local and more tropical sources should offer up an energetic mix of surf in the  3ft range through the day.

Very similar outlooks for surf into the end of the working week. The dominant high keeps a mod/fresh N-NE flow along the temperate coast and we’ll see an energetic mix of local and more distant swell trains from the E/NE making landfall. At this stage we should see size ramp up a bit Thurs- say 3-4ft, holding into Fri.

Those will be ballpark figures, we’ll adjust as we go through the week. 

This weekend (Feb 15-16)

The weekend looks dynamic. The slow moving low in the South Pacific slot has a very broad, almost semi-stationary fetch on its southern flank, buttressed by high pressure over New Zealand. This is likely to see a fully developed sea state with plenty of sizey mid period E swell across most of the eastern seaboard. We’ll see how it looks through the week, but for now, pencilling in punchy 4-5ft surf for Sat and Sun looks warranted. 

In addition to that, a low is likely to form in the Tasman as a strong front tied to an intense polar low tracks to the south. We’re likely to see both long period S and shorter range but stronger S swell if the Tasman Low winds up and becomes elongated through the Tasman (see below).

A S’ly change is due Sat as the low forms, with winds freshening through the day and remaining fresh and gusty SW-S on Sun.

We’ll revise through the week but at this stage, we can expect a small bump in short range S swell Sat a’noon, followed by a much bigger spike in mid period S swell through Sun, extending into Mon.

Size in the 5-6ft range at S exposed breaks will be adjusted up or down as we get more confidence in modelled outcomes. 

Next week (Feb17 onwards)

A chunky mix of S and E/NE swells continues into Mon, likely in the 4-6ft range.

From there, we should see a slow easing as the tropical low will have slid off behind New Zealand and the Tasman Low winds down.

We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Comments

Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee Monday, 10 Feb 2025 at 4:40pm

i like it. fingers crossed the low does it's thing before it moves behind New Zealand. gladly forego the Tasman low if that's what it'd take.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Monday, 10 Feb 2025 at 5:59pm

Fun 3ft sets this arvo clean east swell ..