Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday July 10th)

Best Days: Early Saturday for the keen, Sunday, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading W windswell tomorrow with strong N/NE-N winds
• Small W'ly swell for later tomorrow, peaking Fri AM, easing
• Mod-fresh NW winds Fri, possibly tending N/NW at times to the east
• Large W/SW-SW groundswell building Sat, peaking into the PM with fresh SW winds (likely W/NW early for a period west of Melbourne)
• Easing swell Sun with W/NW-NW winds
• Smaller Mon with dicey winds, likely W/NW tending SW and strengthening
• Poor S/SW swell Tue through Thu with strong S/SW winds
• Easing swell Fri with N winds

Recap

A low point in swell was seen yesterday while this morning we’ve got some weak, junky windswell in the water.

This week and next (Jul 11 - 19)

Today’s weak increase in swell was generated by a weak front moving in through the Bight on Monday with it due to fade into tomorrow morning. Strong N-N/NE winds will create tricky conditions, so likely another lay day.

We’ll then look out for a small pulse of mid-period W’ly swell due later in the day but more so Friday, generated by a slightly better frontal system that passed under Western Australia yesterday.

Small 2ft waves are due on the Surf Coat magnets, 4ft to the east but with a moderate to fresh NW breeze. We may see winds tend N/NW at times to the east opening up a couple of options.

Of greater importance is the polar frontal system firing up on the back of the mid-latitude storm, with it currently positioned just east of the Heard Island region.

A great fetch of W/SW gales will be projected towards us today (left), easing a little through tomorrow and becoming smaller in scope.

We should see the remnants of the storm projecting towards us Friday in a much weaker form, then across us into the evening.

The timing of the peak has been shifted back a little more so into the afternoon Saturday with the Surf Coast still expected to reach 5-6ft on the magnets with 8ft sets to the east.

Winds have gone down hill though with the remnants of Friday’s change leaving fresh SW winds across most locations that will likely tend W/NW for a short period Saturday morning, but average as the swell peaks.

On the upside, Sunday looks cleaner as the swell eases with a trough moving in from the west due to swing winds back to the W/NW-NW, holding all day with easing 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast (3-5ft mostly), 6ft+ to the east.

Monday looks smaller and winds are a bit unsure depending on the positioning of the trough. We may see morning W/NW winds, shifting SW through the morning and then strengthening as it moves east, but the models diverge on this.

Regardless, the weekend’s swell will be continuing to ease, and Tuesday/Wednesday still look to be a write-off with strong S/SW winds as the trough forms into a low off Tasmania. This will also kick up moderate levels of S/SW windswell.

Unfortunately this low will dominate our local winds through the end of the week with strong (but easing) S/SW winds due to persist Thursday, finally swinging back to the N/NW on Friday as the windswell eases. More on this Friday and next week.