Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th February)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning, selected spots Thursday morning, Friday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent SW swell building Tue with light-moderate E/NE tending fresh SE winds, peaking Wed with strong E'ly tending fresh SE winds
• Slightly smaller, less consistent groundswell Thu with strong E-E/SE tending SE winds, easing Fri with moderate NE tending SE winds
• Low point in swell Sat with variable tending S winds
• Building mid-period SW swell and larger, localised S windswell Sun with strong S tending SE winds, holding Mon with strong E/SE winds

Recap

Poor waves across the Surf Coast on the weekend with junky levels of windswell and onshore winds, workable for the keen to the east in protected spots. This morning the swell is smaller and cleaner on the Mornington Peninsula but for the keen.

This week and weekend (Mar 1 - 6)

We've got a windy week of waves which will be fun east of Melbourne as a strong high sitting south of us is squeezed by inland instability and a deepening coastal trough off the East Coast.

Winds tomorrow look lightest and light to moderate from the E/NE in the morning along with our inconsistent, building SW swell which is due to peak Wednesday. The source of this swell and Thursday's energy was discussed last week, generated by a broad, slow moving polar frontal progression shown middle right.

In the morning expect inconsistent 3ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow, 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast but building to 3-5ft and 2ft to occasionally 3ft respectively. Sea breezes will create average conditions from late morning so get in before lunch.

As the instability to our north-east tracks south closer towards us, winds will strengthen from the E on Wednesday with 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, mixed in with some south-east windswell and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into Thursday a slight drop in size and consistency is due, but a long-range groundswell should steady wave heights through the day across both coasts to 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east along with a fresh and gusty E-E/SE breeze, shifting SE into the afternoon.

As we move into Friday winds will ease and shift NE with small, fading sets from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east.

A low point in swell activity is due Saturday but as we move into Sunday a trough moving in from the west will deepen and strengthen south-east of the Gippsland coast, directing strong S tending SE winds Sunday, E/SE on Monday along with some poor, local windswell across the coast.

Some new, mid-period SW swell is due to be in the mix Sunday and Monday but it'll be hard to decipher under the onshore winds and local windswell.

Unfortunately the trough looks to maintain SE winds through most of next week, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.