Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 18th)

Best Days: This morning ahead of an onshore change, mid-late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, Sunday morning, Wednesday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large mix of easing swells tomorrow with moderate SE tending lighter winds, ahead of fresh S/SE sea breezes
• Moderate mix of swells Sun with variable N/NE tending light SW, then strong S/SW winds into the PM
• Moderate mix of weaker mid-period SW swells Mon and Tue with gusty SW winds on the former, moderate E/SE tending S/SE on the latter
• Easing SW swell Wed with NE tending SE winds

Recap

Wednesday’s reinforcing mid-period SW swell eased back through yesterday with lumpy conditions and sets to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east.

Today we’ve got a mix of new swells filling in, that being long-range, inconsistent SW groundswell and closer-range mid-period energy with clean conditions on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets, 6ft to the east.

We’ll see the size build even further this afternoon reaching 5-6ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 8ft on the sets to the east but with a strong S/SW breeze. Get in now.

This weekend and next week (Feb 19 - 25)

The current mix of swells building across the state are are due to peak into this evening, with the frontal system linked to the largest pulse of swell (mid-period energy), bringing this afternoon’s poor winds.

This frontal system will clear to the east tomorrow with a moderate, dawn SE breeze due across all locations, easing and tending light mid-late morning ahead of freshening S/SE sea breezes.

Size wise, we’ll see a mix of inconsistent SW groundswell and mid-period SW swell easing back from 4-5ft across most spots on the Surf Coast with 6ft sets on the magnets, 6-8ft to the east.

Sunday will become smaller but steady as some background W/SW groundswell fills in from the earlier stages of the frontal system bringing the large mid-period swell later today. This was a fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds to the south-west of Western Australia mid-week, with infrequent 3-4ft sets due on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east. There’ll also be some additional mid-period SW swell generated by a strengthening front passing under us tomorrow.

Winds look much better Sunday morning and variable from the N/NE, shifting SW later morning then strengthening into the afternoon.

The change will be linked to a broad, though relatively weak mid-latitude low projection up towards us and clipping the state, bringing some new mid-period SW swell for Monday/Tuesday but with a gusty, persistent SW breeze on the former, shifting E/SE and weakening into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday still looks the pick with offshore NE winds and easing levels of mid-period SW swell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.

Longer term the outlook goes a little quiet again so make the most of the coming windows of cleaner waves. Have a great weekend!