Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st November)

Best Days: Torquay each morning for keen surfers excluding Friday morning

Recap

Small OK waves Saturday with a building mix of swells and light variable winds most of the morning.

Yesterday was the pick though with clean 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and good beachy waves on the Surf Coast to 3ft.

The swell has held in a little better than expected this morning and fresh N'ly winds and clean 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast beaches, and 4-5ft sets continuing across the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will tend more N/NW on the Surf Coast into the afternoon and should hold from the N/NE to the east as the swell eases.

This week and weekend (Nov 22 - 27)

Looking at the coming couple of days and it looks to me that our models are over-forecasting the expected size on the Surf Coast.

There's no significant swells due, with a very long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for later tomorrow and more so Wednesday, generated in the Indian Ocean last week.

A W/SW change tomorrow will fail to produce any W/SW fetch with strength or longevity in our swell window and this will just add some weak windswell to the mix over the coming two days.

Size wise I'm only expecting small 2ft+ waves tomorrow and Wednesday on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds won't be ideal, from the SW both tomorrow and Wednesday for the most part, but Torquay should see morning W/NW offshores.

Into Thursday easing surf from 2ft and 3-4ft respectively is due with possible early W/NW winds and a SW'ly into the afternoon again.

Friday morning is expected to start small to tiny and with an early SW change leaving no decent options for a surf.

Into the afternoon some new mid-period SW swell is due, followed by some better SW groundswell over the weekend.

These swells will be generated by the same weather system, with the groundswell developing from a strong polar low projecting north-east towards us during the end of the week.

A front shedding off the main storm will move in Friday (bringing the change and also increase in mid-period SW swell).

An afternoon increase to 2ft+ is due on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore winds, with Saturday building to a stronger 3-4ft, and easing from a similar size Sunday morning.

Conditions will continue to be less than ideal with morning W/NW winds on the Surf Coast and afternoon SW breezes Sunday.

Longer term lighter winds are due into next week with easing surf, but more on this Wednesday.