Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th December)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs: fun S'ly swell mix (biggest late Wed, though with a risk of late NE winds). Next week: strong E/NE swells. 

Recap: A flukey south swell offered 3ft sets at south swell magnets (mainly north from Sydney) on Saturday, smaller elsewhere around the 2ft mark, and clean with light offshore winds through the morning ahead of afternoon NE breezes. Sunday saw a mix of small leftover S’ly swell and peaky NE swell, generally around the 2ft mark though the Illawarra picked up a few bigger sets. Conditions were nice and clean with offshore winds. This NE swell eased back overnight and was supplemented this morning with a small S’ly swell to 2ft at south facing beaches, occasionally bigger across the Hunter (though now easing). Light winds have freshened offshore through the day. 

Clean Monday peaks on the Coal Coast

Lovely arvo on the Hunter, just a little small

This week (Dec 8 - 11)

A series of strong lows and fronts across our broader south swell window will set up a series of southerly swells for the next few days.

Each swell will actually arrive in the opposite order as to when it was created. A new short range south swell will build Tuesday, in response to a developing fetch behind a front pushing into the south-western Tasman Sea early morning. South facing beaches should reach 3-4ft late afternoon though exposed locations picking up the most size will be quite wind affected. 

Elsewhere, it’ll be much smaller thanks to the acute south swell direction and short period. It’ll also be smaller early morning (whilst winds are temporarily W/SW).

Wednesday will see much cleaner conditions under a weak ridge of high pressure and its associated light variable winds, though size will be easing - still 2-3ft at south facing beaches earlier, though smaller elsewhere and abating gradually through the day. Expect the upper end of this size range across the Hunter.

During the morning, the leading edge of a new longer period S’ly swell will push across the South Coast, and it’s expected to nose into Sydney around lunchtime and peak late in the day. The source of this swell is a much stronger fetch of S/SW winds around the primary low, well south of Tasmania today (see below) - this energy is already in the water and moving through our swell window, but will arrive half to one day behind Tuesday’s short range energy because of the much larger travel distance. 

This should kick up solid 4ft sets to south facing beaches by late in the day (i.e. reversing the otherwise easing S’ly swell trend) and we may see a few bigger bombs late afternoon across the Hunter region. The only risk late Wednesday will be a freshening NE breeze which may spoil conditions away from sheltered northern corners. 

A weak pre-frontal trough will then envelop the region on Thursday morning, ahead of a gusty S’ly change due the afternoon. Wednesday’s late pulse of south swell will be easing but south facing beaches should pick up early 3ft+ sets (bigger across the Hunter) before size falls in the afternoon. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

We’ll see a decent kick in windswell very late Thursday through Friday, but it’ll be accompanied by fresh S/SE winds and so quality will be quite limited across the region. South facing beaches should hold 4ft+ at times but it’s not looking especially inviting at this stage. 

This weekend (Dec 12 - 13)

There won’t be any shortage of swell this weekend but local conditions could be an issue.

To begin with, another series of strong fronts below Tasmania on Thurs/Fri will generate small sideband south swell for the weekend. No major size is expected but we’ll see 2-3ft sets from this source both days. 

A building ridge of high pressure across Tasmanian latitudes and a broad coastal trough to the north will squeeze an easterly fetch across the northern half of the Tasman Sea, mainly aimed north of us (i.e. a E/SE alignment) but it’ll be quite OK for Southern NSW and we should 2-3ft sets building to 3-4ft through the weekend.

However, accompanying onshore winds are likely to be quite persistent all weekend, and with direction straight out of the east there won’t be many places to hide. Winds will be lighter as you head south from Sydney, though there’ll be slightly less E’ly swell at the same time, so it’s a little early to make any plans. 

But.. at least there’ll be waves! And plenty of rain too, it’s a wet pattern coming up.

Next week (Dec 14 onwards)

The main feature on the long term charts is a stationary ridge through the northern Tasman Sea - supplying a bare minimum of 3-4ft E/NE swell for most of next week - and a potentially significant tropical cyclone, developing north of Fiji around Friday, moving south over the weekend and probably entering our swell window around Monday.

Now, whilst the models are not in close agreement on the specifics (geographical position, and timing), they are in agreement on the broadscale pattern, plus and the likely development of a significant tropical feature (trough, low or cyclone) - either in the western South Pacific or Coral Sea - which is very likely to super-charge the existing easterly fetch, and generate large easterly swells for our coast. 

As such, confidence is high for a large E/NE swell across our region next week, though I’m just not sure whether it’ll occur during the early or middle part of the week. And, local winds are currently unclear too. But I’ll have more on that in Wednesday’s update. 

See you then!