Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th August)

Best Days: Tues: easing S'ly swell and improving conditions. Wed: small clean peaky swell mix with light winds before a late S'ly change. Fri: solid S/SE tending SE groundswell with mainly light winds. Easing Sat with light winds. 

Recap: Saturday saw a peaky combo of easing S’ly swells and mainly light to moderate offshore winds, with fun waves about south facing beaches. On Sunday, a new long period S’ly groundswell pushed through, with peak swell periods around 17.5 seconds. This increased surf size to 3-4ft at south facing beaches by the early afternoon, with bigger surf across the Hunter, though it was much smaller elsewhere as per usual under S’ly swell events. Gusty S’ly winds filled in early-mid afternoon and added some late windswell to the mix. Today we’ve seen some incredible figures at the Sydney buoy as a Tasman Low drove up the coast, with significant wave heights reaching 5.8m at the Sydney buoy and maximum wave heights reaching 10.4m. Surf size has maxed out most open south facing beaches in the 8ft+ range with offshore bombies and the exposed Hunter coast seeing 10ft+ sets, though surface conditions have really only favoured protected southern ends.

This week (Aug 29th - 1st Sep)

This Tasman Low has already done most of its primary swell generation, so we’ll see wave heights start to ease off overnight and then continue downwards through Tuesday and Wednesday. As the low clears to the east, surface winds will abate and swing light offshore so we’ll see conditions steadily improve. 

Early Tuesday morning will have the most size, still likely somewhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft at south facing beaches early (smaller elsewhere but bigger in the Hunter) however by the early afternoon it’ll likely be down to 3-4ft with even smaller surf expected by late afternoon nearer a steady 3ft. 

At the same time, a small undercurrent of E’ly swell will filter into the coast thanks to a small fetch that developed north of New Zealand late last week. We’ll only see a couple of feet from this source on Tuesday but it’ll add some interesting peaks to open beaches. Expect mainly light variable winds all day, perhaps a lingering southerly about the Hunter if we’re unlucky. 

Wednesday will see a further small drop in size from the south, though the east swell should peak with very inconsistent 2-3ft sets about exposed beaches. Expect lengthy periods of smaller waves between sets; in fact, model data anticipates this E’ly swell will peak late in the day, so we may also see a period of slightly undersized conditions early morning. Light offshore winds are expected through the morning ahead of a gusty S’ly that’s due to reach the South Coast just after lunch and then the Illawarra/Sydney region mid-late afternoon. 

This change will be linked in with a front that’s expected to seperate from a deep polar low south of Tasmania around Tuesday afternoon; the combined effects will have generated a mid range south swell due Thursday. However the front itself will add some windswell to the mix, and a new Tasman Low is expected to form midway between NZ and the Australian mainland on Thursday, generating a bigger S/SE tending SE swell for Friday.

Thursday should see the dual south swell combo lift surf size to 3-5ft at south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere. Winds will be mainly moderate to fresh southerly though we should see early periods of SW winds. I'm not expecting anything amazing though some beaches will have fun surf.

Friday’s building groundswell isn’t being handled well by the models at this point in time, and I think we could see some strong sets pushing 4-6ft+ at south facing beaches by lunchtime (starting off a little smaller eaerlier), with bigger sets across the Hunter, especially into the afternoon. Fortunately, winds are expected to become light and variable thanks to the Tasman Low staying well offshore, so we’re looking at great conditions to finish the working week. 

This weekend (Sep 2nd - 3rd)

Friday’s solid SE swell will ease through Saturday; early morning will have the most size (4-5ft sets at south facing beaches) but it’ll ease steadily to 2-3ft+ by the late afternoon. Expect bigger waves across the Hunter and smaller surf across the South Coast, due to the orientation of the fetch. 

Sunday will see this swell lose more size and become less consistent, so it'll only be workable at exposed south swell magnets, best suited to the Hunter coast. Early NW winds are expected to swing N’ly and strength as a vigorous frontal procession approaches from the west. In fact we could be looking at a decent local N’ly windswell late in the day, depending on the timing of the wind strengthening. Otherwise, aim for an early surf on Sunday. 

Next week (Sep 4th onwards)

Model guidance is suggesting a serious passage of strong fronts across the SE corner of the country early next week, which should lead to (in addition to a brief leftover N’ly windswell early Monday) a sustained period of strong fluctuating south swells through much of next week. More on this in Wednesday’s update.