Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/NE swell boosts a notch in size/quality Thurs before a slow ease 
• S’ly change Wed AM
• Easing winds Thurs with light land breezes early
• Freshening NE winds Fri with more NE windswell in the mix
• Small blend of E/NE and NE swells over the weekend with better winds Sat
• May see some small S/SE swell later Sun with S/SSE winds
• Better bet Mon/Tues for small, fun SE swells
• Tropics still active but the trend is for low pressure to slide off to the SE quickly with no major swells- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

A blend of NE and E/NE swell started to slowly arrived yesterday, up into the 2-3ft range by close of play under a mod N’ly flow. Size has increased a notch into today with some 3ft sets under a light morning flow, with N’ly winds expected to get up before a S’ly change pushes through the region (arrived Illawarra mid morning and pushing across Cronulla at 10.30 am).

Fun blend of NE and E/NE swells this morning

This week (Feb 3-7)

No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri. We’ll see continuing tradeswells from this source. The next S’ly change pushes into Southern NSW Sun before stalling, leaving a tricky, troughy pattern through the Tasman and Coral Seas with multiple minor fetches active. On current modelling the resultant pattern is too mobile to generate any significant swells but we should see a continuation of small swells from various directions next week. 

Todays S’ly change backs off quickly as the trough stalls and dissipates over night, leaving a light SW flow tomorrow morning before light winds swing around the compass- from SE to SE-NE. Nothing to cause too much disturbance to surface conditions so waves should stay fun all day. Surf-wise we should see a nice upgrade in quality as period jumps a notch, with sets to 3-4ft from the E/NE on offer. 

N’ly winds kick back in Fri so get in early for light NW breezes before winds tend N-N/NE and freshen. Still some 3ft sets from the E/NE, easing in size and consistency through the day with some minor NE windswell in the mix through the a’noon.

This weekend (Feb 8-9)

NE winds feeding into an approaching trough will boost short period swell trains from that direction into Sat morning with size to 2 occ. 3ft under mod N’ly winds. The trough looks to stall around Jervis Bay during the day but we’ll see how that looks on Fri. 

We should see the trough push northwards on Sun, with just a brief period of light N’lies possible before winds shift SW then SE. We’ll see more small NE-E/NE swell to 2ft with a a chance of some short range S-SE swell later in the a’noon depending on how the trough behaves. EC has a much more bullish development than GFS so a highball call would be 2-3ft of new short range swell in the a’noon, lowball: 1-2ft with the increase happening through Mon. We’ll fine-tune on Fri. 

Next week (Feb10 onwards)

High pressure moves south-east of Tasmania early next week with a trough lingering off the South Coast and directing a SE-S/SE fetch at the South and Central NSW coasts (see below). That should see some workable fun-sized swell from the same direction through Mon, and into Tues with a mod S-S/SE flow Mon, easing Tues. We’ll peg size now at 2-3ft and see how it shapes up on Fri. 

Further ahead more tropical low pressure is expected to form on a SE-NW oriented monsoon trough next week but at this stage, low pressure slides off to the SE quickly and we’re not likely to get any meaningful swell from it as currently modelled.

Under that scenario we’d be looking at a low energy outlook from mid next week through the end of next week with small E swells in the sub 2ft range and light winds.

The monsoon trough still looks active medium term so revisions are possible- check back Fri and we’ll see how it looks.