Sunday’s pulse subsided overnight and it was back to the small stuff this morning with clean 1-2ft options rolling in, larger across the Hunter.

This week (Tuesday 12th - Friday 15th) and weekend (Saturday 16th - Sunday 17th):

We are in for a small increase in southerly swell later this afternoon preceding a peak on Tuesday afternoon as a result of a particularly dynamic system. A strong front and developing low has been moving over the Southern Ocean over the past few days and has since moved south of Tasmania and into the NSW swell window overnight.

We are likely to see mixed energy off this system, firstly mid-range southerly energy generated by southwesterly fetches which rounded the southeast of Tasmania on Sunday. This swell is likely to peak during Tuesday followed up by a more substantial groundswell generated by distant fetches earlier in the system’s life cycle.

Late last week and over the weekend an elongated southwesterly fetch moved in a captured motion up from the deep Southern Ocean in good alignment to the NSW coast, the effects of which are also set to peak on Tuesday afternoon.

South facing beaches should start showing signs in the 2ft+ range late this afternoon, with options in the 3-4ft range by Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, this mix of energy should be providing sets in the 4-5ft range across exposed south swell magnets, possibly larger across the Hunter. 

Conditions at these south facing locations will be pretty ordinary as moderate/fresh southerly breezes look to dominate. Southern ends of open beaches will be your best bet, especially in the morning as winds should tend south/southwesterly.

Both swells then look to slowly ease throughout Wednesday, dropping from the 3-4ft range under a light southwesterly tending southeasterly airflow.

A second frontal progression then looks to move across the Tasman during Tuesday, although modest in size and without the northward motion we would like to see. Instead it looks to move in an alignment towards southern part of New Zealand’s South Island, providing only sideband energy for Thursday afternoon into Friday. In terms of size, south facing beaches should pick up around 2ft+ off this system.

Early west/northwesterly breezes should provide clean conditions each morning, with Friday remaining cleaner for longer as winds tend light/variable preceding a seabreeze.

A ridge then looks to set up over the Tasman, coinciding with the departure of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough. A brief blocking pattern looks to develop, deflecting frontal activity to the south for the remainder of the week. Generally speaking, only sideband energy is expected to reach the NSW coast off these systems, although Saturday morning is looking at a peak in the 2-3ft range off a low south of Tasmania from early on Wednesday morning.

Easterly energy also looks to build throughout late Thursday, Friday and into the weekend generated by an increasing easterly trade flow along the northern flanks of this ridge. In terms of size, open beaches should be picking up around 2ft of surf by late Thursday afternoon, building into Friday with options in the 3ft range, with the odd bigger set. Saturday should see the swell starting to ease from 3ft (chance of odd bigger one), down further Sunday from 2ft+ at open beaches.

Saturday morning is looking good for a clean wave, with west/northwesterly breezes preceding a seabreeze. Sunday should see a brief period of light winds before a southerly change moves through mid-morning.

Next week (Monday 18th onward):

The aforementioned Tasman Ridge is then expected to break down as a strong frontal progression approaches from the west. This large system can be clearly seen on models traversing the Southern Ocean as far west as the Indian Ocean. 

Broad trailing fetches look to intensify southwest of Tasmania at a fairly deep latitude, with core fetches potentially exceeding 50kts. By this stage, the sea-state should be fairly active from the previous two systems allowing swell generation to be more efficient.

The resultant groundswell looks to peak on Monday across south facing beaches, with sets potentially up around 3-4ft range.

More detail on Wednesday.