Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 11th March)

Best Days: Average but workable conditions each morning. Thursday morning worth a look.

Recap: 

Most coasts continued to see options in the 2ft+ range yesterday with a small mix of easterly and southerly energy in the water. The first southerly breeze in weeks also moved up the coast, although lacking any real power.

Today, we have seen a southerly pulse across south facing beaches generated by west/southwesterly fetches along the northern flank of a low which moved south of Tasmania into our swell window late on Wednesday. These exposed spots have been picking up options in the 2-3ft under a northeasterly seabreeze. 

This weekend (Saturday 12th - Sunday 13th):

Southerly fetches off the back side of this low are due to generate another small pulse into the weekend, although the rapid easterly motion of this system is likely to be a significant limiting factor.

Southwesterly core fetches of over 50kts showed up on the satellite as this system moved further over the Tasman sea, although the poor alignment and rapid movement across the swell window has severely reduced the chance of any note worthy swell.

More favourably aligned southerly fetches acted upon eastern parts of the Tasman sea, just west of New Zealand throughout Thursday morning, although weaker but broader. As a result, south facing beaches have the potential to see a few sets beginning to show late on Saturday, but more so into Sunday with options in the 2ft+ range, possibly a touch larger across the Hunter.

Between these southerly pulses, background east/northeasterly energy should provide sets in the 2ft range across open beaches on Saturday, with a late kick on the cards for Sunday with sets building to around 2ft+ generated by a slight strengthening of an easterly trade flow.

The wind outlook is similar to what we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks, light northerly breezes with the outside chance of swinging north/northwest during the morning, more so south of Sydney. As the morning progresses however, a northeasterly seabreeze doesn't take long to come in an have an impact on quality.

Next week (Monday 14th onward):

Monday looks like the biggest day in terms of east/northeasterly trade energy, with fetches pushing in towards the coast while strengthening slightly the days prior. The slightly dip in the Tasman ridge looks to be at it’s strongest throughout Saturday and Sunday, before weakening and contracting eastward. The afternoon should see sets build to the 3ft range at open beaches, fading from a similar size on Tuesday morning.

Wednesday morning should see a low point, although sets don’t look to drop below 2ft before another pulse fills in during the afternoon generated by longer range trade winds which should options in the 2-3ft range.

Meanwhile, the blocking ridge which has been a main contributor to the prolonged warmth, northerlies and lack of decent frontal activity looks to break down early next week, giving way to a front and building ridge from the west.

A resultant southeasterly fetch looks to span the width of the Tasman from Monday night/Tuesday morning, extending from southern New Zealand to the NSW coast.

The first signs of southeasterly swell should show late on Tuesday, although more size looks to fill in throughout Wednesday with south facing beaches increasing to around 3-4ft. Thursday looks to offer the peak in size during the morning offering options in the 4-5ft range.

As this southeasterly fetch weakens, it looks to linger off the South Island of New Zealand, slowing the easing trend. Options should gradually fade, easing back to the 2-3ft range by late Friday afternoon or even Saturday morning.

Monday morning looks to offer a more northwesterly airflow early, so capitalise and hunt down some workable options. By the late afternoon/evening, we should be seeing the first signs of a southerly component airflow, which looks to strengthen and dominate during Tuesday, limiting options to protected southern corners of the open beaches. Options also look to be limited on Wednesday as this southerly breeze continues, although easing and tending more southeasterly.

By Thursday, a clean/workable wave may be able to be sniffed out with breezes swinging south/southwesterly early, before southeasterlies dominate once again.