Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 14th)

Best Days: Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny to flat tomorow and Friday
• Building S/SE windswell late Saturday with a strong S/SE change, peaking Sun with strong S/SW-S winds
• Better S'ly swell building Mon, peaking overnight, easing Tue
• NW tending variable winds Mon, strong N/NE Tue

Recap

Tiny surf with clean conditions has persisted the last two days.

This week and next (Aug 15 - 23)

The run of tiny to flat surf will continue into the end of the week and winds will be less reliable, light offshore with weak S/SE sea breezes tomorrow and then gusty N/NE-NE all of Friday as a broad low starts to move in from the west.

Now, this low is due to produce an infeed of S/SE winds on its southern flank on Saturday, with a pulse of swell due Sunday though with strong, onshore S/SW-S winds as the low continues east.

Only a weak 2ft+ wave is due and with those poor conditions.

Some better, reinforcing S’ly swell is due Monday/Tuesday generated by a polar front being drawn up from the shelf, behind the low and this should produce a spike in swell to 2-3ft later Monday, easing from a similar size Tuesday morning.

Local conditions look to improve with NW tending variable winds due on Monday, stronger N/NE Tuesday as another low starts to move in from the west.

Now, this low doesn’t look to generate any meaningful swell with the next increase in decent size from the Southern Ocean likely occurring into the final week of the month. More on this Friday.