Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Monday 7th Jul)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Saturday morning, early Sunday, Monday

Recap

Saturday came in as expected with a small bump in swell to 1-2ft with light winds from the E early. Conditions deteriorated during the day though and Sunday was a write-off with fresh SE winds and a terrible looking ocean.

Today was cleaner but the swell was back to a tiny 1-1.5ft or so.

This week (Jul 7 – Jul 11)

There's no meaningful swell due until Thursday across our region, and this swell will be very long-range and inconsistent and with dicey winds.

A vigorous polar front that's pushed up towards WA today was more in our swell window the last couple of days, and a very inconsistent 1-2ft of W/SW groundswell is due into Thursday. Winds will be variable during the morning but may puff light from the SE before increasing from the SW during the day.

Friday will be cleaner but there isn't expected to be any size left with an easing 1-1.5ft wave due across Clifton.

This weekend onwards (Jul 12 onwards)

As talked about the last few updates, we should finally see some more action into the weekend and this will be related to an amplification of the Long Wave Trough moving in from the west later in the week and across us over the weekend.

This should steer a couple of vigorous polar fronts up into us through our south-western swell window through the middle to end end of the week and the weekend.

An initial increase in due through Saturday ahead of a secondary stronger pulse Sunday, peaking 3-4ft+ range. Winds will be offshore Saturday as the swell builds from 2-3ft, but a change through the afternoon unfortunately looks to linger into Sunday. There is a good chance for an early W'ly though, but we'll confirm this Wednesday.

A drop in size is then due Monday as winds persist from the W/NW most of the day.

Longer term we may see some fun W/SW groundswell through the middle to end of next week, but we'll have another look at this on Wednesday.