Quiet this week, incoming E swell from the weekend

James KC

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 26th April)

Best Days: From the weekend onwards

Outlook:

  • Longer period S swell to fill in on Saturday easing into Sunday
  • Another S swell to move up the coast filing in Late Monday and ebbing and pulsing into Tuesday and Wednesday. Although strong S/SE winds will limit options. Best conditions early in the day
  • Smaller for Thursday/Friday
  • Potential for decent run of E/SE trade swell over weekend and further ahead

Recap

Well what a weekend it was with a long period (22 second registered on the Tweed Buoy) S swell moving in. From all reports there were good waves to be had with the MNC best on Saturday and N NSW best on Sunday. SE QLD mainly missed out due to the acute angle of the swell.

The peak of the swell seemed to be up around that 4ft mark and with light offshore winds the mornings really were the pick. Light seabreezes picked up in the afternoon although there were still quality waves on offer.

This morning it was close to flat for SE QLD but with nice conditions. South of the border was 3ft with light offshore winds keeping things clean early. Wind turned SW in the afternoon making it a bit bumper this afternoon. 

The start of this week

A weak S swell that will arrive tomorrow and remain around that 3ft mark until Wednesday. This swell originated from a weak front pushing up the east coast of Tassie. 

Mornings will have light SW winds but a ridge of high pressure will direct SE winds across the region each afternoon meaning southern corners will be your best option for cleaner waves in the afternoon waves. Mornings will be your best bet to get the most of the S swell on offer and clean conditions.

With the persistent S/SE winds for the first half of the there will be a bit of windswell added to the mix. This windswell will filter in better for the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast although it’ll only be a weak 2ft at the most. 

Into the end of the week

We will then enter a quiet period wave wise as a blocking high sets up over the southern Tasman preventing any decent S swells. Waves will be 2ft and under for Thursday and Friday before an E trade swell setup begins to build into the weekend.

On both Thursday and Friday we will have light and variable SW winds early tending SE in the afternoon. Waves will be small to tiny with just some windswell on offer. 

The weekend

The high in the southern Tasman will shift towards NZ as winds across the top of NZ will consistently direct E swell towards our coast. 

From Saturday we will begin to see a building E swell provide some more size. While winds won’t be offshore the persistent E/SE winds will deliver 3ft of swell across the region, smaller for the MNC. 

Sunday will see SE winds early building throughout the day but with 3-4ft of E/SE swell protected southern corners will still have decent waves

Next week

Further ahead we are looking at waves remaining in that 3-4ft range with winds more out of the S. A longer period swell will move in as winds north of NZ intensify with a potential low squeezing the ridge of high pressure and directing a decent swell later in the week. 

The timing and size of the incoming E groundswell depends on the evolution of the low so sit tight and check back in the coming updates.

Comments

Bainoh's picture
Bainoh's picture
Bainoh Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 4:22pm

304ft waves next week? :P

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 7:29pm

"South of the border was 3ft with light offshore winds keeping things clean early. " it was cross shore at best where I checked and it had a bit of a wobble too. So the opposite of what you said. Just a statement of fact not pissed off or anything

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 7:57pm

I had a mate at a Tweed beachie early this morning and he said perfectly clean light SW for a good while before it puffed from the south.

Ted from the moon's picture
Ted from the moon's picture
Ted from the moon Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 10:05pm

Maybe you were at the wrong place....some super fun waves around this morning south of the Tweed. I had a lot....the only problem was half of the gold coast turned up because they had a day off. Yesterday was great as well.....just saying.

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:17pm

I checked a few spots but yeh possibly I was in the wrong area. I tend not to look very hard. If there's a rideable wave at the first spot I look at thats where i go out. I've wasted a lot of time driving around looking so don't really do that much of it anymore. And 9 times out of 10 I end up at the first spot anyway. Oh well......thats surfing

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 10:17pm

I've been watching this east swell on the models for the past 2 weeks and it's gone from 2ft to 12ft to 8ft to 10ft and back again, and is now back a full week later. I'm now at the stage of I'll believe it when I'm stroking into one!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 26 Apr 2021 at 10:43pm

Long range models look rather interesting to say the least!!

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:29am

Long term swell model has now gone from 8 foot to 2 foot again. Ha ha ha ha

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 11:06am

It’s the Phantom east swell blip.. it is always floating about 1-2 weeks out, and never materializes - seems to happen at the start of the trade swell pattern.. must be a history of south swells leading into an ecl, or a large east swell...making the models forecast.. I will say I have had a few heart flutters in the past seeing it a week out!!!!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 11:11am

lots of moving parts, lots of model spack-outs.

the trend is your friend.

till then, caveat emptor.

gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 11:45am

Sunny coast getting SSW swell direction :-/

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:47pm

agreed on the trend, and often common sense also prevails, but I still can't not freak out/froth out for a few seconds everytime I see it!! because sometimes, just sometimes it does..

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 11:59am

GFS and EC coming into alignment now for early next week.

PDP's picture
PDP's picture
PDP Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:22pm

What are they aligning on?

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:49pm

oodles of tradeswell.. the SEQ's best friend...

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:49pm

It’s a little better than “tradeswell”. That length and duration of fetch is the goods!!

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:57pm

Don't forget the local winds, looks promising!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:50am

...aaand now it's crap again lol. You still can't trust more than a couple days out.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:11am

https://www.windy.com/?-27.473,153.022,5

Great resource for wind/wind forecast. Gives you a good visual representation of where the swells coming from, what the winds doing or gonna do and where those purple blobs are around th world. The app is good but the website works just as good.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:41am

Hmmmm GFS misaligned again this morning.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:42am

cool your jets.

still a lot of model instability.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 11:23am

so easy to get excited.. then disappointed..
they'll probably tease us with a dip between new cal and norfolk tomorrow.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 7:32pm

EC has the feather out