Mediocre autumn outlook

James KC

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 24th March)

Best Day: Thursday with fading E to E/NE swell 

Outlook:

  • Fading E to E/NE swell with nice offshore winds Thursday
  • S winds Friday last of E to E/NE swell
  • Inconsistent E/SE swell for the weekend with S winds again on Sunday
  • S winds and mid period S swell combines with a new inconsistent E/SE swell later next week

Recap

It’s been a stormy few days with mainly washing machine like conditions and poor water quality across the board. It all changed today with winds swinging offshore. A little lumpy and with poor water quality from all the flooding but by mid morning the clean up process had begun with offshore winds grooming conditions.

Winds had a bit too much N in it along the points for SE QLD, full devil wind, but there were decent options along the beaches.

The end of the week

Well I bet you won’t take that sun for granted anymore. After about five days of grey skies and washing machine conditions how long are these offshores, blue skies and the 4-5ft waves for Mid N Coast and Yamba and the 3ft waves for Ballina and SE QLD going to hang around for?

Well when that trough and low moved south and offshore overnight it brought us W/NW winds and took all the grey and rainy stuff out to sea. A weak region of high pressure will build and give us clearer skies and lighter winds for the next few days.

Thursday will see another beautiful day with offshore winds but the waves will have eased for everywhere except the Mid N Coast. It’ll be 3ft out of the E/NE for the Mid N Coast and more like 2-3ft for N NSW and SE QLD. There could be a little NE seabreeze from the early afternoon but for the most part conditions will be clean. 

A coastal trough will create a weak S change along the coast on Friday morning. The swell will only be small but winds will freshen out of the SW early and shift around to the SE later in the day. Southern corners will be your best bet on with the last of that E/NE swell hanging around there should be some nice 2ft+ options. It’ll be best early before winds swing more E/SE later in the day. 

For Saturday there’ll be light offshore winds and the swell small and inconsistent out of the E/SE generated by the low behind NZ on Monday. It’ll be small and inconsistent 2ft sets but nice conditions. Make the most of the light winds early as a weak NE seabreeze will build into the afternoon as a S change approaches for Sunday.  

The S change will move through early on Sunday, more SW in the morning and swinging around to the SE in the afternoon. There’ll just be that inconsistent E/SE swell  but because you’ll have to stick to southern corners for cleaner conditions I wouldn’t expect much. 

The new week 

The start of the new week will see a mix of localised swells only amount to small 1-2ft waves. 

Winds will remain out of the S, generally more SW early and more SE later in the day, as a high sets up over the southeast of the nation and a ridge creates a southeasterly flow. 

There could be a little pulse of mid period E/SE swell on Tuesday into Wednesday from another low behind NZ. I wouldn’t expect much more than an inconsistent 2ft E/SE swell but without much else on the cards besides the mid period S swell from the persistent S winds, it could add a bit of extra push.

The mid period S swell could pulse a little more on Wednesday from a trough and low in the Tasman. It could provide waves up to 3ft but with SE winds it’s hardly something to get excited about. 

Tune in on Friday for an update, I hope there’s a better forecast for us by then.  

Comments

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 6:46pm

Absolutely primo on the northern beachies this arvo, water quality aside. Full offshore a-frames and bugger all crew. Please make it last one more day!

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 10:17pm

Model not updating again?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 1:26pm

Nothing mediocre about this mornings surf :-)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 1:33pm

bizarre ratings system.

the other day- Tuesday- howling onshore pissing rain totally unsurfable gets a 3/10.
Today, well you saw it. 5/10.

I'd go 0/10 and 7/10 respectively.

salt addict's picture
salt addict's picture
salt addict Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 5:12pm

Im calling yesterday afternoon the best surf on GC open beaches all year.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 5:21pm

+1 glad someone here said it. We were pinching ourselves yesterday.

Easily the best Ive seen palmy since January where it was flukey good for a week. Best Ive seen palmy in an arvo since winter hands down. Somehow Steph Gilmore and Lauren Enever found out about one of the aves working. Enever put on a clinic in SStraddie real punchy type conditions. Unreal from 12pm till 630pm. I got four hours in with an hours break either side of halfway.

dannyp's picture
dannyp's picture
dannyp Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 9:24pm

Wed morning on the SC. Best I’ve seen my local beachside in a loooong time. Not big, but perfect shape and waves everywhere.

Serendipity60's picture
Serendipity60's picture
Serendipity60 Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 9:26pm

Bit too specific with your location there Ben. Gold Coast open beaches as Salt Addict reports would be better.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 12:26pm

Haha, get outta town with that. I surf palmy everyday, big stretch of beach, plenty of avenues to pick from (none that I mentioned) and also one of the most popular surf spots for Brisbane family/crew to hit. So there is no secret there anymore S60. And lastly, for the most part the sand has been shit since that December swell so it's a lottery for anyone to come here and think they gonna jag a few or get it like was yesterday arvo. The reference to Gilmore and co coming down was to highlight the bizarreness of the arvo, as palmy is almost always a blip on the radar for outside crew of any calibre or anyone who wants something more than a 2 second closeout.

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 6:48am

Probs rang all his jobseeker bludging mates too lol.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 7:15am

Haha, not likely. Life back at uni and getting paid (minimal wage type deal) for it has its perks and also doesn't. The dream ends in June, going for it while I can.

Mad Dog's picture
Mad Dog's picture
Mad Dog Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 1:07pm

Those conditions on the Goldie Beachies were amazing on Wednesday arvo, the last time it was like that would have been September 2019. There have been a few good days in between but never for the whole arvo. Had a cracking 4 footer right on dark that will stay with me for a very long time. Bring it on Huey.