South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 20th November)

Best Days: Mon thru' Sun: plenty of south swell for Northern NSW, but tiny in SE Qld away from the south swell magnets. Work around the winds and you'll do well (Tues/early Wed this pick at this stage).

Recap: Tiny waves and northerly winds in SE Qld both days. A small south swell has pushed into south facing beaches across Northern NSW but there’s been no real size or strength in it; sets of around 2ft with a few rideable options in sheltered northern corners.

This weekend (Saturday 21st - Sunday 22nd)

Southeast QLD: Saturday looks terrible - no new swell and freshening northerly winds.

A fresh S’ly change advancing along the NSW coast throughout Saturday is expected to nose across the border in the early evening, but current model guidance suggests it’ll stall near Moreton Island overnight and never really kick into gear across the Sunny Coast. 

As such, we’re looking at fresh S’ly tending SE winds on the Gold Coast early Sunday (maybe a brief SW’er at Cooly around dawn) but the Sunshine Coast may see lighter, more variable winds tending moderate E’ly during the day. In any case the northerly flow should be disrupted one way or the other. And that's a good thing.

Anyway, the fetch trailing the change looks pretty uninspiring for new swell development. The swell will initially have a lot of south its direction; it’ll slowly veer south-east during the day but no great size is expected - just a weak 1-2ft at the outer points building during the day, a little smaller at most beaches but bigger at times at exposed south swell magnets. 

Surf size from the south may be smaller on the Sunshine Coast due to the slightly less favourable fetch location and orientation. In fact, here we may also see an equally small level of E/NE swell from the tail end of a reasonable trade flow through the Coral Sea, feeding into a trough in the far northern waters (well outside of our swell window). 

So, Sunday is the pick but it’ll either be small peaky beachies on the Sunny Coast, or small outer points on the Goldy. Nothing to get too worked up about.

Northern NSW: With very little swell in the water on Saturday, the advancing change makes it hard to get excited about surf prospects. The southerly should reach Port Mac around dawn, Coffs mid-morning, Yamba around lunchtime and then Ballina/Byron mid-late afternoon.

Freshening N/NW winds ahead off the change should become light and variable for a period just before the southerly pushes through, but either way it’s hardly worth working around. And the fetch trailing the change doesn’t look like it’ll generate any useful swell - given the accompanying winds - at all. 

Sunday will then see an early peak in short range S/SE tending SE swell, up to 2-3ft+ at exposed south facing beaches in the North but smaller in the south, and easing during the day. Wave heights will be smaller at beaches will less southerly exposure, so unless you can dial into a semi-exposed point (where it’ll only be small anyway) the best you can aim for will be a bumpy beach break.

Next week (Monday 23rd onwards)

We’re looking at an excellent winteresque frontal pattern through the Southern Ocean and lower Tasman Sea from this weekend, through much of next week. Bear witness to Craig’s very positive outlook for Victorian waters (cheap flights anyone?).

This progression will steer itself through our far southern swell window, but the orientation isn’t quite as good as earlier model runs had anticipated. Essentially, the storm track now looks like it’ll be a smidge more westerly (zonal), which is less favourable for swell generation for our neck of the woods.

Still, we will see back-to-back south swells throughout this period, averaging around one pulse per day from Monday thru’ Thursday, and possibly a final pulse later Friday or Saturday, holding into Sunday. And the persistently long wavelengths should override some of the concerns regarding small swell heights. These swells will mainly favour exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW, as they’ll generally track straight on past the SE Qld region - unless you can dial into one or two of the regional south swell magnets.

Size wise, we’re looking at set waves hovering in and around the 3-4ft+ mark at the height of the first round (later Mon/Tues, and again Fri/Sat/Sun), with slightly smaller pulses through the mid-week energy. And keep in mind that beaches not open to the south will be considerably smaller.

The key to scoring good waves during this period will be to work around the winds. The first swell on Monday probably won’t be quite into the Far Northern NSW region early morning; this will be a lunchtime or early afternoon arrival, so with freshening northerlies due on Monday you may wish to aim for another day if you can’t find a sheltered northern corner as they crop up.

But the Mid North Coast should see the swell in the water through the morning and with early light winds it'll be worth capitalising on.

A weak coastal trough will then pad out Tuesday - this is the pick of the forecast period for me right now - resulting in light variable winds. They’ll continue through Wednesday before freshening northerlies kick in during the afternoon and through Thursday. 

Another advancing trough may deliver a southerly change for Friday but that’s a ways off yet. 

Anyway, the long and short is that there’s plenty of south swell due from Monday right through until next Sunday - almost a week of of persistent energy from the southern quadrant. Well worth working around your favourite south swell magnets throughout this period.

Have a great weekend.. see you Monday.