South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th November)

Best Days: Sun PM, Mon: small S/SE swell across the outer Gold/Sunny Coast points, with good winds. Tues, Wed AM: great waves everywhere with a fun SE swell and light winds. Thurs/Fri: Fun S'ly groundswell at south swell magnets in Northern NSW.

Recap: Nothing much for SE Qld over the last few days but Northern NSW has ebbed and flowed with fun, intermittent long range southerly groundswell, anywhere from 2-3ft at south swell magnets on Thursday but tiny in southern corners. Conditions were clean for the morning with light winds. Wave heights eased back a little today and winds have come up from the north.

Synoptic overview

A southerly change currently nosing into Southern NSW will push across Northern NSW on Saturday, reaching the border overnight and then extending into SE Qld on Sunday.

The good news is that the trough associated with this change now looks like it'll stall much further north, which should allow a ridge to build behind it (across Northern NSW and SE Qld), which will in turn generate some short range SE swell for later Sunday and Monday. 

A moderate ridge across the northern Tasman Sea from Sunday onwards should supply fun SE swell for most regions early/mid next week. Otherwise the only other source of swell is a polar low SW of Tasmania this weekend that’s expected to generate a spell of small, long period south swell for Wednesday, Thursday and maybe Friday. 

This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th)

Southeast QLD: Nothing for Saturday with tiny surf and freshening northerly winds as the change approaches. Sunday has a smidge more potential than I indicated in Wednesday notes, as the ridge behind the change looks a little more robust. 

That being said, we’ll probably start off very small ahead of a building trend throughout the day that should reach 2ft+ across the outer points of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts by late afternoon. The outer points will offer the best waves under a freshening S/SE breeze (winds should be SW early but there probably won’t be enough size to capitalise on). South swell magnets are likely to see bigger waves in the 3ft+ range by the end of the day but local winds will create bumpy conditions at these spots. Keep an eye on the cams to assess the swell's upwards potential.

Northern NSW: Not a great deal on the cards for Saturday. With only small surf today and freshening N’ly tending S'ly winds as the change pushes through, there’s just not enough size to work around. It also looks like the initial fetch trailing the change won’t be very strong so Saturday afternoon may see only a modest increase in size, confined to the lower Mid North Coast.

Sunday doesn’t look amazingly better, unless you’re in the Far North and can duck in behind a semi-exposed point after lunch. We’re looking at building S/SE swell all day with moderate to fresh S’ly tending SE winds, the biggest surf will arrive late afternoon with sets in the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches, but they’ll be quite bumpy. 

Otherwise, expect smaller surf elsewhere, and tiny conditions inside sheltered southern corners due to the swell direction and low period (and if anything, surf size will probably be a shade smaller south of Coffs, thanks to the orientation of the fetch).

On the balance, nothing overly epic but there’ll be waves if you’re keen. 

Next week (Monday 16th onwards)

I reckon we’ve got some really nice waves on the way for the first half of next week.

A ridge building behind the weekend's change looks like it’ll be enhanced through the Northern Tasman Sea thanks to a surface trough developing due south of New Caledonia. This is expected to tighten the pressure gradient inside our SE swell window from Sunday through Monday and even Tuesday as it slowly contracts northward.

This will in turn generate a fresh SE swell that’s expected to arrive on Monday afternoon. The morning should see leftover, easing S/SE swell energy from Sunday’s new pulse, and mainly moderate to fresh S’ly winds tending SE throughout the day (a few isolated regions should see a couple of hours of SW winds at dawn, but don’t bank on it everywhere). Once again the outer points in SE Qld will probably be the pick of the region on Monday, especially once the new swell starts to show after lunch.

Tuesday looks to be the pick of the forecast period, as this new swell reaches a peak - and with the pressure gradient concurrently relaxing across the coast we should see mainly light winds, probably early W’ly tending tending light to moderate SE throughout the day. Open beaches in Northern NSW should see a peak in the 3-4ft+ range, with smaller surf at protected spots. Along the SE Qld region, the outer points of the Gold and Sunshine Coast should pick up fun 2ft, maybe 2-3ft surf with plenty of options across the beachbreaks too. The surf will be much smaller at protected spots though. And, don't expect strong thumping lines - it's just a mid range event, and will probably be quite sectiony down the points. 

This swell will then ease slowly through Wednesday and early light variable winds will swing around to the north during the day. So if you can’t surf on Tuesday, then make the most of Wednesday morning for the biggest and best waves of the day before the winds swing.

Sometime on Wednesday - probably in the afternoon - the leading edge of a new long period southerly groundswell is expected to arrive, having been generated by a deep polar low SW of Tasmania this weekend. Its alignment isn’t amazing but it’s expected to move slowly through our swell window for a couple of days, so we’re looking at a modest south swell providing inconsistent 3ft sets to south facing beaches in Northern NSW, pulsing intermittently through Thursday and probably even Friday. Unfortunately, SE Qld won’t see much, if any swell from this source. 

The only downer through this period is the presence of northerly winds. As such, sheltered northern corners will probably be the best option later next week but I’ll have more details on that in Monday's update.