Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More small E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics Fri into Sat and Sun
• More small E/NE swells early next week
• Small SE swells developing Tues/Wed
• Larger E’ly swells possible depending on position of TC Alfred next week- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Small surf from the E/NE has teased surfed with wave heights in the 1-2ft range yesterday and today. Conditions were clean both mornings under offshore winds with winds getting up from the E/NE today and making a mess of surf although it has whipped up some local NE windswell.

This weekend and next week (Feb 28- Mar7)

No great change to the weekend forecast. In the Coral Sea, Severe TC Alfred (currently borderline Cat4 central pressure 956hPa, expected to weaken to Cat 3 during the day) is crawling slowly SE to Southwards. TC Seru is SE of New Caledonia and weakening to tropical storm status through today as it slowly moves south-eastwards and then stalls. A front is moving under Tas with a trough to the NE.

We’ll see winds from the W-W/W  through tomorrow as ridging occurs above Tasmania with small levels of E/NE swell continuing to tease surfers.

On Sun winds from the W shift SW then S as a new high ridges in from the Bight. More small surf from the E/NE in the 1-2ft range offers some tiny surf.

Into next week and high pressure moves over then East of the state through Mon, leading to light/variable winds and a’noon NE seabreezes and small S swells. Nothing over 1-2ft again though with minor levels of E/NE swell continuing to filter down from the tropics.

We’ll see SE winds develop in the Tasman with some small spread of E’ly swell reaching NETas, likely during Wed and Thurs.

Further swells rely on the southwards movement of TC Alfred.

There are some model runs suggesting it penetrating the Tasman and developing a large wind field across the Tasman that would see larger E’ly swells into late next week.

Surf size in Tas depends on how far south TC Alfred tracks

Error margins still remain relatively large as we head into the second half of next week due to the erratic movement expected from the cyclone or sub-tropical hybrid system it may evolve into. This mostly concerns a potential coastal crossing in SEQLD or NENSW late next week as a diminished cyclone or sub-tropical storm which would bring onshore gales, XL storm surf on the southern flank of the storm and potential coastal damage including from wind, storm surge and flooding.

If you are chasing sub-tropical point surf at the classic locations it may be a good time to consider a road trip before that- notwithstanding the fact that even most of those waves may be over-powered during the peak of the swell or if we get a coastal crossing.

NETas is likely to see swell from this system if it moves into the Tasman. 

Other-wise, watch this space, we’ll update  as information comes to hand.

Seeya Mon and have a great weekend!