Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell Sat with strong N/NE winds
• Peak in N/NE windswell Sun, easing in the PM with NW tending W winds
• Not much next week, generally tiny for the working week
• We may see some small E/NE swell filter down from the tropics next weekend

Recap

Small S-SE swells offered up 1-2ft surf yesterday with early offshore winds tending NE. Small today with only tiny surf and light winds now tending N’ly. 

This weekend and next week (Feb 22 - Feb28)

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure has moved into the Tasman and sits there over the weekend. It’s quite a strong high (expected to strengthen from 1025 to 1030 hPa) with a typical wind signature for this time of year- mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending to NE winds in temperate NSW and extending down to Tasmania.

We’ll see N’lies freshen tomorrow and the first signs of building NE windswell show through the day with tiny surf in the morning building to 3-4ft by close of play.

Size builds further o/night and into Sun as a trough and low approach from the west with strong N’lies tending NW through the a’noon. Size in the 6ft+ range is expected to hold most of the day, with a late easing as winds shift NW.

Still looking good for sizey NE windswell Sun

Into the new week and W’ly winds blow surf flat quickly as the N’ly fetch gets shunted out of the swell window. There may be some 2ft leftovers early before surf goes tiny/flat.

Not much action following that.

Tiny surf Tues.

A frontal passage early in the week may see some traces of S swell into Wed and with N’ly winds we may see some small NE windswell to 1-2ft.

Thats about it.

Further ahead and another strong front crosses Tas late next week bringing W’ly winds. It’s not likely to produce any S swell as the fetch is very zonal and it gets shunted down to the south quickly.

We may see some small E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics Fri/Sat next week, but not much more than the occ. 2-3ft set.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon and until then, have a great weekend!