Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Feb 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush in S swell Fri, peaking into Sat
• Stalled trough likely to see an increase in SE swell Sun, tending to E’ly swell through Mon/Tues, easing Wed 
• Winds onshore through this period 
• Increasing NE swells through Thurs, becoming very sizey through the day under fresh N/NE winds
• Winds shift NW-W on Fri with large swell from the NE, easing through the day
• More S swell next weekend

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swells offered surf to 2-3ft yesterday with morning light winds and a’noon NE breezes. Glassy 2ft surf this morning from the E/NE with clean conditions before a stiff S’ly change which is whipping up some short range S swell.

This weekend and next week (Feb3 - Feb14)

No great change to the weekend outlook as the current S’ly change continues into tomorrow as a trough of low pressure stalls off the Gippsland coast and a strong high moves across from the Bight to track SE of the Island late in the weekend.

We’ll see moderate amounts of short range S-S/SE swell tomorrow in the 3-4ft range but with messy conditions under mod/fresh winds from the same direction.

Winds don’t improve much Sun with mod SE winds and short range SE swells in the 2-3ft range.

Surf builds into the new week as high pressure drifts SE of the Island and the trough stalls off the Southern NSW coast, directing SE-E winds at Tas and generating some chunky E/SE-E swell. 

Expect surf to build from 3-4ft into the 4ft range on Mon under mod SE tending E/SE winds.

Size then holds into Tues but expect the onshore E’ly flow to remain persistent. 

By Wed winds will have shifted more E/NE-NE and we’ll see the E’ly swell ease off and then tilt more E/NE-NE.

That easing will be short-lived as NE winds really ramp up through Thurs extending from adjacent to Tas up to the Gippsland Coast (see below). That will see a steep rise in NE windswell, likely from 3-4ft up into the 6ft+ range through the day under fresh N/NE winds.

Friday looks to be the day as a low approaches and winds shift more W/NW then W through the day, cleaning up large swells before they ease through the day. Check back Mon and we’ll finesse winds but for now, Fri looks the best day of the f/cast period.

A strong front and low pass into the Tasman next weekend, likely generating a spike in S swell Sat. As that eases into Sun we should see some better quality E/NE swell from a tropical low in the South Pacific fill in.

More on that Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!