Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, fun S swell leftovers Sat with early light winds tending N’ly
• Tiny on Sun
• Fun sized SE-E/SE swell Mon with early W’ly winds, tending SW-S
• Mix of S swell and easing SE swell Tues
• More small S swells expected mid next week
• Still uncertain outlook from mid next week due to troughiness in Tasman, so check, back in Mon

Recap 

Nice quality E/NE swell to 2-3ft yesterday was fanned by offshore winds. Size has wound back to 1-2ft today with fresh SW-S/SW winds with a spike in S swell expected through the a’noon. 

This weekend and next week (Oct 25- Nov1)

No change to the weekend f/cast. A complex but disjointed low has formed in the Tasman with diffuse centres off the North Coast and Tasmania/Gippsland coast. We’ll see S swells generated by the proximate fetches from this system easing into the weekend.

We’ll see todays S swell spike ease off into tomorrow with leftover S swell to 3-4ft at S facing beaches easing off through the day to 2ft. Early light SW winds will tend N’ly during the day as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. 

Tiny surf Sun with light winds tending N’ly through the day but with no real strength and thus we aren’t expecting any rideable NE windswell to develop.

Into next week We’ve got a little more clarity over next week’s outlook now as the Tasman Sea continues to remain in a troughy, unstable state which has been a feature of the last 4 La Niña dominated years. 

We’ll see a cold front move into the Tasman Mon, with early W tending SW winds tending S’ly through the day. We should see an a’noon spike in new S swell and some quality SE-E/SE swell from a  flare up of the low near the South Island over the weekend (see below).

We’ll see light tending SE-NE winds Tues as a strong high pressure in the Bight maintains a ridge up the East Coast with a weak, troughy area to the NE of Tas.  We may also see some more local S swell in the mix as well. EC continues to suggest a low pressure trough in the Tasman which will see small S swells into Tues and Wed.

GFS prognosis is for a more bog standard frontal system to skip across the Tasman, with minor S swells into Wed.

Continuing troughiness further complicates matter later next week with model outputs all over the shop - both run to run and between models. 

We may see a small low pressure trough develop next week followed by a strong NE flow into an approaching trough, or a weak front and high moving into the Tasman. In other words, very low confidence in f/cast outcomes from mid next week. Model tendencies have been to overcook low pressure development which would favour a more prudent approach. 

We’ll keep an eye on it over the weekend as always and report back Mon. Expect some revisions for next week!

Seeya then and have a great weekend!