There’s a more curious swell source on the cards, that was missed in Monday’s notes and is showing up in the model guidance for the end of the week.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/03/07/broad-mix-swells-throughout-period-good
thermalben
Wednesday, 7 March 2018
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/03/05/plenty-se-swell-all-week-tricky-winds
thermalben
Monday, 5 March 2018
The ridge will then hold firm across the Northern Tasman Sea through the rest of the week and even into the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/03/02/ecl-inbound-next-week
thermalben
Friday, 2 March 2018
The weekend’s southerly change will be associated with a surface trough, which is expected to stall just below the Mid North Coast on Sunday, freshening southerly winds through our short range swell window as a Tasman Low develops in the central/southern Tasman Sea.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/28/tricky-winds-series-s-and-se-swells
thermalben
Wednesday, 28 February 2018
Model guidance has marginally sped up the arrival of the southerly change on Thursday morning so it looks like our final pulse of SE swell will largely go to waste.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/26/plenty-se-swell-week-several-windows
thermalben
Monday, 26 February 2018
It’s worth noting that the swell models seem to be replicating the same problem we saw with last Thurs/Fri's SE swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/23/mixed-weekend-ahead-better-options-mid
thermalben
Friday, 23 February 2018
I’ve had better weeks at the forecast bench. Just quietly, I almost threw a tanty yesterday arvo.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/21/fun-se-swell-later-thursfri-peaky-ne
thermalben
Wednesday, 21 February 2018
The remnants of ex-TC Gita flared up off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island yesterday, and it’s generating a new SE swell that will arrive through Thursday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/19/later-thursday-and-friday-looking-fun
thermalben
Monday, 19 February 2018
As ex-TC Gita tracks towards New Zealand on Tuesday, it’ll reform off the West Coast and form a broad fetch of gales that will give rise to a brief flush of SE groundswell as we progress into Thursday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/16/strong-swells-entire-period-biggest
thermalben
Friday, 16 February 2018
I can’t in good conscience ignore a Cat 3 cyclone aligned really well within our swell window, aiming 50-60kt winds at such close range, and simply issue a size forecast that is also theoretically possible from a standard winter Tasman Low or an E’ly dip within a fully developed trade flow.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2018/02/14/big-bigger-biggest-inbound-swell-stc
thermalben
Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Relative to this particular swell window, STC Gita is an unprecedented weather system from a surf forecasting point of view.
