As ex-TC Gita tracks towards New Zealand on Tuesday, it’ll reform off the West Coast and form a broad fetch of gales that will give rise to a brief flush of SE groundswell as we progress into Thursday.
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I can’t in good conscience ignore a Cat 3 cyclone aligned really well within our swell window, aiming 50-60kt winds at such close range, and simply issue a size forecast that is also theoretically possible from a standard winter Tasman Low or an E’ly dip within a fully developed trade flow.
Relative to this particular swell window, STC Gita is an unprecedented weather system from a surf forecasting point of view.
So, enough waffle.. how big is it gonna get?
Time to start doing some cardio, y’reckon?
Most of the long term synoptic activity will occur in the South Pacific as a series of tropical lows pull off the monsoon trough.
A good but inconsistent E'ly groundswell tomorrow with a building S'ly groundswell, peaking Wednesday morning. Good winds each morning, deteriorating through the day. Fun peaky E'ly swell building later Saturday and peaking Sunday with a window of favourable winds.
We’ve got one last gasp of swell from ex-TC Fehi.
We’re looking at an early peak in S’ly swell and then a later peak in E’ly swell from the remnants of TC Fehi, probably around the middle of the day.
So, here we are - looking down the barrel of a complex synoptic situation within a wide spectrum of our swell window.