Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th July)

Best Days: Sat: Solid easing S'ly swell, though a little windy at times. Sun/Mon: moderate easing S'ly swell with offshore winds. Late Mon/Tues: light offshore winds and a brief pulse of new E'ly swell, biggest in the Far South (smaller across Syd/Hunter coasts). Plus some smaller background E/NE swell too. Thurs/Fri: new S'ly swell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Wednesday’s south swell eased steadily into Thursday but was replaced with a small pulse of long range southerly groundswell that punched a little higher than expected, offering inconsistent but smooth 3ft+ sets across south facing beaches through Thursday and Friday. Winds have been light offshore so conditions have been clean. A low is developing off the South Coast but as yet we’ve seen no major upswing in southerly swell, though a late pulse can’t be ruled out. Winds are starting to strength across the South Coast, currently gusting 41kts W/SW at Montague Island.

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This weekend (July 14 - 15)

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We’ve still got a strong south swell ahead for Saturday.

The models have pulled back the overall strength of this system so I’ve marginally pulled back size estimates but we should see reliable south facing beaches pushing 6ft+ throughout Saturday morning before wave heights ease throughout the afternoon. As per usual under south swell regimes, expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure.

As for conditions, we’re looking at fresh and gusty W/SW winds for the most part, thanks to the western extent of the low not quite reaching the mainland. Winds will tend SW through the middle of the day and will then ease into the afternoon, probably tending light to moderate southerly mid-late afternoon.

The low is expected to undergo some changes into Saturday, forming a secondary S’ly fetch east of Tasmania that’ll provide a renewal of small south swell into Monday. A moderate fetch between the two will somewhat arrest the easing trend into Sunday, with south facing beaches again seeing the most energy, with early 3-4ft+ sets easing slightly into the afternoon. Again, it’ll be much smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure. Conditions should be great with mainly light offshore tending variable winds.

Next week (July 16 onwards)

Monday looks pretty fun, with light offshore winds and a mix of southerly swells from the bottom of the low providing inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets across south facing beaches. A weak high pressure system will contribute light winds to the region once again. 

We’ll see swell energy from a couple of other sources too. 

The current low off the South Coast is part of a much broader surface trough encompassing the entire Tasman Sea. Its eastern flank is mainly aligned out of our swell window, but an additional ridge across the waters north of New Zealand is strengthening a trade flow at the moment, which will contribute some background E/NE swell through the first half of next week (though without any major size). 

As the trough deepens over the weekend, gale to storm force E/NE winds are expected off New Zealand’s West Coast; though just south of Sydney latitudes and aimed at points well to the south. What this means is that the large E/NE thru’ NE swell generated by this fetch will need to spread angularly back into Southern NSW, so surf size will be incrementally smaller as you track north from Tasmanian latitudes - and estimating the precise size for each stretch of coastline is difficult, because eventual wave heights will largely come down to local bathymetrical effects.

Additionally, the models have slightly tweaked the alignment against our favour (since Wednesday) so I’m now less confidence on size prospects. However with continuing light offshore winds it’ll be worth a look: this swell should start to appear across some regions on Monday afternoon, peaking through Tuesday morning - perhaps 2-3ft across reliable Sydney/Hunter beaches, then slightly bigger as you work your way down to the Far South Coast where exposed swell magnets may see a brief pulse in the 4-6ft range (anyone up for a quick Tassie jaunt?). 

Beyond that there’s not much swell expected through the middle of the week, but a vigorous front will exit eastern Bass Strait later Wednesday, and provide a flush of strong through extremely directional south swells through Thursday, and maybe Friday (thanks to a small secondary low to the south). Offshore winds will persist throughout this period - gusty at times Wednesday (with tiny leftover surf) but then easing later Thursday and Friday as the south swells reach a peak.

More on that on Monday. Have a great weekend!