East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. Thats directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter.
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By Friday we’ll see the Coral Sea low looking very impressive on the map and an E’ly fetch extend down into temperate latitudes. The low centre is expected to be NE of Fraser Island with E’ly gales aimed straight at SEQLD.
Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July.
No change to the weekend trend outlook, with the current south swell easing rapidly both days.
A trough line moving north-wards along the NSW Coast is spawning a surface low pressure system today, with the pressure gradient between the low and a high advancing through the interior creating a stiff S’ly flow along the coast.
The remnants of the Tasman Low (ex ECL) are now drifting near the South Island, on top of a large high which is slowly moving out of the Tasman Sea. A high is approaching from the South Australian interior, with a trough expected to form off the coast later Tues and develop a broad, relatively weak low in the Central/Northern Tasman.
The new trough/low is generating gales out of Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast. The main low is drifting towards the South Island and intensifying today, with gales to severe gales expected to retrograde NW back into the Tasman Sea.
A massive cloud-band is enveloping most of the Eastern Seaboard, tied to a complex low pressure system in the Tasman, and strong high pressure system with both systems slow moving. Multiple trough lines also complicate the situation, leading to uncertain movements of the main low, and development of secondary low pressure centres, of which one is forming off the Mid North Coast today (between Coffs and Port Macquarie).
Tasman Sea is looking very, very spicy this week with our current low looking to meander N and E, then S and reintensify later in the week, sending fun-sized swell to the East Coast with mostly favourable conditions in our sub-tropical region.
By Wednesday it looks like a classic La Niña map. Strong high just SE of Tasmania with a low in the Central Tasman directing a huge windfield through most of the Central to Northern Tasman Sea.