South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Size holds into Fri AM with mod SE winds developing, another pulse later that day
• S swell favouring NENSW extends through Sat at chunky levels , easing into Sun with mostly light winds tending SE-stronger on the Sunshine Coast
• Building short range SE-ESE swell Sun across SE QLD, favouring Sunshine Coast for most size
• Last pulse of longer period S swell Mon
• E swell downgraded but still fun levels of SE-ESE swell from Mon next week, bigger from Wed-Fri with most days seeing mod SSE-SE winds

Recap

Some fun, clean S swell on the menu yesterday with 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW and a few fun 2 footers at SEQLD S swell magnets, with early clean conditions tending to SE winds from around late morning. Today is seeing bigger but inconsistent 3ft surf across NENSW S facing beaches, with a few workable options at SEQLD S swell magnets.  Early clean conditions have now transitioned to a mod SE flow but there are still plenty of workable options to be had to end the working week.

Enough energy at S swell magnets north of the border to be worth the early 

This weekend (Nov5-6)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Light/mod SE flow through Sat is expected with a morning land breeze keeping things clean until mid-morning through most of the f/cast region with the Sunshine Coast likely to see a more rapid SE wind establish. Expect a few 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft+ at SEQLD S swell magnets through the morning, holding through the day as conditions slowly deteriorate under SE winds. A few small peelers on the Points can be expected as the wind gets up through lower stages of the tide.

Leftover S swell from Sat holds surf in the 2-3ft range Sun with size maxing at NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft or less north of the border where you’ll need the most reliable S swell magnet. SE winds continue through Sun, stronger on the Sunshine Coast and through the a’noon we’ll see a building trend in short range SE swell as high pressure builds a ridge through the Coral Sea. Early winds are expected to be offshore in NENSW and on the Gold Coast before swinging SE through the morning.

Next week (Nov7 onwards)

Charts have looked great all week with a low pressure system drifting in from the Coral Sea inside the North Island but the bad news is the low is now expected to track down the outside of the North Island with a major downgrade in swell potential.

Blocking high pressure is still expected to take up residency in the Central Tasman, directing a summer-like light/mod NE flow across Central/Southern NSW next week. Expect this wind regime to persist all week, and likely into next weekend before an approaching mid-latitude low brings the next pattern change week beginning 14/11.

A final pulse of longer period S swell is still expected for Mon. Windspeeds and an intensification of the fetch were favourable but the winds were very zonal in alignment so expect a flukey swell with some places picking up much more size than others. With periods in the 15 second band some solid 4ft+ sets are on the menu for select S swell magnets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD whilst the general size away from S swell magnets will be in the 2-3ft range as summer style SE-ESE swell fills in the gaps.

This small SE-ESE swell signal in the 2-3ft range will persist into Tues AM and start to lift a notch into the 3ft range through the a’noon and into Wed as the fetch though the Northern Tasman maintains a trade-wind style swell. 

The SE-ESE flow does intensify through the middle-end of next week with the majority of this fetch aimed at sub-tropical targets (see below) so a modest increase in energy is expected for the f/cast region through Thurs/Fri. Expect E’ly swell up in the 3ft+ range through Thurs and Fri with continuing mod S to SE winds, likely SW inshore early, especially south of the border and in the Coolangatta region. 

Nothing amazing but there should be plenty of rippable beachies and small Point surf to be had.

Into next weekend and we’re still watching the Eastern swell window hoping the low or remnants of the low could generate a fetch on the western side of the North Island, possibly down to Cook Strait late next week. That would see an increase in E-ESE swell for next weekend. Failing that we’ll be looking at small levels of E swell into next weekend, likely with freshening N’ly winds as a cut-off low approaches from the interior.

We’ll see how it shapes up over the weekend and report back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!