Our current trade swell is now starting to ease and will continue a downwards trend into Thursday and Friday.
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Our primary swell generating system right now is a broad ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea. It’s expected to weaken very slowly over the coming days, and in doing so will bring about a gradual drop in surf size through the middle to latter part of the week.
It’s been an interesting, complex couple of days in weather-model land.
The weekend’s looking somewhat dynamic.
The broad trend across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld will be slowly upwards, starting from a pretty small, weak base on Tuesday morning.
Has is been worth the wait? Depends on your paddling ability and stamina I suppose.
Pick and choose your location according to your ability - there’s gonna be a lot of water moving around so it’ll be worth watching the ocean for an extra twenty minutes before you paddle out.
The key feature for the next 24 hours is a small fetch wrapping around the low, due east of the Hunter Coast this evening. This will be working on an active sea state generated by the current S’ly fetch pushing up the coast, and this will enhance wave heights into Tuesday - though mainly at south facing beaches in Northern NSW.
It’s shaping up to be a great weekend for the open beach breaks, so find an empty stretch and get stuck into some A-frame goodness!
Model guidance still has a peak in size for tomorrow, which is plausible - however I think the models are a little skewed at the moment. They’ve undercalled the last few days, and tomorrow are combining two swell trains out of the east and north-east, which I think is slightly inflating prospective surf size, if only a smidge.