South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 9th August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: early offshores and more S'ly swell for Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld). Sun/Mon: possible strong S'ly swell for a handful of exposed beaches in Northern NSW.

Recap: Tuesday was very small as expected, but today was much different - across Northern NSW at least - with a strong pulse of S’ly swell pushing up through the morning, reaching 4ft at south facing beaches into the afternoon. However, north of the border it’s been tiny to flat across most SE Qld beaches with just a couple of feet of inconsistent swell at exposed northern ends. Conditions have been clean with offshore winds. 

Late Wednesday lines at Byron Bay

This week (August 10th - 11th)

The current southerly swell has held across Southern NSW nicely today, and should maintain a similar size across Northern NSW into Thursday morning as what we’ve seen this afternoon. 

You will want to make the most of the early session though as an approaching front will strengthen winds from the north throughout the day, following a period of NW winds early morning. Expect 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller at beaches not open to the south), a little smaller across the Tweed Coast but as per today very little throughout SE Qld away from the exposed northern ends and handful of exposed south swell magnets. Expect an easing trend into the afternoon in addition to the northerly breeze.

A fresh pulse of S/SE swell is due to to push across Northern NSW overnight, however there’s been a minor downgrade in model strength since Monday's notes were prepared (and a slight tweak in alignment away from our swell window) so I’m going to pull back wave height estimations for Friday. The downgrade is also resulting in a slightly later arrival time of this new swell too.

This new swell will be sourced from the latest developments of the Tasman Low inside the central/southern Tasman Sea, however its poor alignment means set waves will be inconsistent and will probably only favour the more reliable south swell magnets south of Byron. Following a Thursday afternoon’s easing trend, these exposed spots should see rebuilding surf to an inconsistent 3-4ft on Friday. It’ll be smaller elsewhere, especially north of the border where we’ll continue to see tiny conditions at most SE Qld beaches, and only the occasional one to two footer at the exposed northern ends. 

Winds should veer form the north back to the NW across most locations into Friday morning, but a N’ly trend is possible at some locations into the afternoon. As such, aim for an early surf for the best conditions.  

This weekend (August 12th - 13th)

Saturday will see an easing S/SE swell from Friday, initially inconsistent 2-3ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron around dawn (smaller elsewhere) and very small across SE Qld, just a foot or maybe two at exposed northern ends, easing during the day across all coasts. 

Winds are still somewhat uncertain for Saturday. A brief, shallow S/SW change is expected to push across the Mid North Coast in the morning, but we’ll probably see variable winds elsewhere. 

Sunday looks very interesting for some parts of Northern NSW, though many locations will continue the tiny theme for the rest of the weekend.

A series of vigorous fronts will exit eastern Bass Strait from Friday through Saturday. Now, at first glance they still look too zonal (i.e. west-east in alignment) to favour our coast with reliable surf, however the strength of these systems - particularly Saturday morning’s front - may override some of the directional deficiencies. 

Initially, a small south swell is expected off the first front (arriving through Saturday afternoon across the Mid North Coast) but it probably won’t be any bigger than the pre-existing, easing S/SE swell. 

A stronger S’ly groundswell (from the bigger system mentioned above) is then expected to glance the coast at some point throughout Sunday and this has the potential to provide large, long period swells to a handful of reliable south swell magnets. 

Estimating the precise arrival times is almost as difficult as pinning down a likely size range, as there is no doubt that we’ll see a huge variation in wave heights across the coast. Many beaches will remain tiny, but given the strength of this system I can’t rule our 4-5ft+ bombs at well exposed locations. Ordinarily I’m loathe to fence sit as much as this but the simple fact is that these kinds of flukey systems do produce the goods at just a limited number of venues. 

So, you’ll have to rack up some miles south of the border this weekend but Sunday could deliver some great waves if you luck in. I am doubtful for anything noteworthy north of the border though, maybe some stray 2ft+ sets at exposed northern ends into the afternoon if we’re super lucky - but it’s a low percentage affair in SE Qld this time ‘round. 

As for conditions - just about everywhere looks clean with light variable winds on Sunday. 

Next week (August 14th onwards)

A strong tertiary front wrapping around Tasmania on Saturday afternoon should maintain similar levels of flukey S’ly groundswell into Monday, as per Sunday.  Winds look mainly light and variable at this stage. 

A fast moving cut off low/front is then expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea early in the week, renewing a brief pulse of moderate S’ly swell across Northern NSW later Tuesday, easing Wednesday. It doesn’t look anything amazing at this stage though, maybe some 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, and very little elsewhere.

The Fijian system I mentioned in Monday’s notes has been slightly weakened over the last few days, though it is still hanging around the tropical region so I won’t completely write it off just yet. 

Otherwise, the next swell event looks to be a strong S’ly groundswell later next week and into the weekend. More on this in Friday’s update.