South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd August)

Best Days: Thurs: brief window of good winds early, with a small leftover S/SE swell (plus a minor N'ly windswell on Gold/Tweed Coasts). Mon: long period S'ly groundswell with light winds, small building E'ly swell. Tues: mix of easing S'ly swells with peaky E'ly swell. 

Recap: The weekend’s very large south swell has eased slowly over the last few days, providing solid 4ft surf through Tuesday at south facing beaches south of Byron, and small waves in SE Qld, with winds veering from the NW to the N. Surf size dropped a little more today and winds have been mainly light through the morning, cropping up from the north this afternoon. 

This week (August 24th - 25th)

Surf size has eased a little more slowly than expected across much of the East Coast for the last few days, and with Southern NSW still seeing occasional 2-3ft sets this afternoon, we should see a similar level of south swell across south facing beaches (south of Byron) into Thursday morning. Wave heights will continue to ease throughout the day though.

However, local winds are the problem for the short term period. Gusty SW winds will push across the Lower Mid North Coast early Thursday, swinging S’ly and extending into the remainder of the Mid North Coast by mid-morning, before reaching the far North Coast into the afternoon. Expect a late building S’ly windswell in the wake of the change.

As such you’ll have to make it very early if you’re south of Coffs, and at the very least a mid-morning session everywhere else. 

In fact, a developing northerly flow off the SE Qld coast tonight may also whip up a small N'ly wind wave for exposed north facing beaches across the Gold and Tweed Coasts Thursday morning too. There won’t be much more than 1-2ft on offer, but with a similar level of leftover south swell in the mix at exposed beaches you may pick up some small peaky beaches with early light W’ly winds.

This N’ly windswell will be smaller across the Sunshine Coast (due to the poor fetch length) and remaining Northern NSW coasts (due to a poor alignment). 

Fresh and gusty S’ly winds are then expected to dominate Friday (briefly SW for a few locations early morning), with a poor mix of low quality S’ly wind swells. South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up choppy 4ft sets but there won’t be much size elsewhere, and SE Qld won’t really see anything worthwhile either. It’ll be very small across the outer Gold Coast points (1ft, maybe 1-2ft at best), and they’ll be the only locations offering clean conditions. 

This weekend (August 26th - 27th)

Friday’s short range south swell will ease steadily through Saturday as the associated fetch abates and draws away from the coast. Winds will remain fresh from the south, though will ease during the day and may tend SW across a few locations. 

I can’t see there being many great options south of the border (where we’ll see the most size) or north of the border (where we’ll see the best conditions) so at this stage Saturday is looking like much of a grovel fest at the open beaches. Keep your expectations low.

Sunday looks interesting for Northern NSW. Conditions should improve a couple of notches as local winds ease and become light and variable, and in addition to some small lingering S/SE swell from a modest fetch in the central Tasman, we’ll also see some long period S’ly groundswell push up the coast throughout the day. 

This swell is expected to be sourced over the next few days from a series of broad, powerful Southern Ocean lows well to the SW of Tasmania. They’re expected to fire up a rare, acute part of our long range S’ly swell window (see chart below, sourced from our Tasmanian swell charts). It looks poorly aligned on paper, but Northern NSW's Great Circles are somewhat distorted by the map projection.

However, these kinds of flukey long period swells usually just glance the coast, favouring a handful of locations. So you’re going to have to hunt around for the best waves.

Additionally, we’re actually looking at a peak from this event on Monday - getting the timing is difficult, but early indications are that the easing edge will reach the Mid North Coast sometime Sunday morning and the Far North Coast in the afternoon. I’ll fine tune the specifics on Friday.

Adding to the complexity further is the fact that the wave models really struggle with these systems. They’re currently estimating just 0.5m at 17.6 seconds at Coffs Harbour around Sunday lunchtime. The swell period estimates are on track but we’re probably looking at a metre or more of swell throughout the afternoon and into Monday, so south facing beaches should see 3-5ft sets with bigger 5-6ft bombs at a handful of reliable swell magnets late in the day (bear in mind, this may be just a couple of locations). 

For the most part, most Northern NSW beaches will be considerably smaller, and across SE Qld I’m not expecting this swell to make much of an impact away from south swell magnets (even they’ll pick up the swell very late at best).

So, let’s take a closer look on Friday.

Next week (Aug 28th onwards)

Sunday’s long period S’ly groundswell should hold in on Monday as per a similar size noted above - up to an inconsistent 3-5ft at south facing beaches, possibly even some 5-6ft+ bombs at one or two locations. But in general, most beaches will see a small undercurrent of leftover S’ly swell and a small new E’ly trade swell generated by a fetch developing north and north-east of New Zealand from Friday onwards. This east swell should maintain small waves at exposed beaches for a few days. 

S’ly swell will then ease from Tuesday morning onwards. However, a third, final front in this sequence (passing south of Tasmania on Saturday) will set up one more marginally smaller pulse that is expected to arrive across the Mid North Coast on Wednesday afternoon. I’ll revise potential size from this in Friday's update but anywhere between 3-5ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) looks about right for now. 

The E’ly swell mentioned above will originate from a high pressure system east of New Zealand. It's expected to interact with the the remnants of a weak Tasman Low over the weekend, forming a belt of NE winds extending from the NE Tasman Sea into the South Pacific. Whilst not especially strong or long lasting (nor aimed very well into our swell window), it should be enough to generate some small E’ly swell through the middle to latter part of next week - mainly across North NSW, specifically the Mid North Coast. 

So, we’ve got a very dynamic period ahead next week.. tune in Friday for more details.