South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th August)

Best Days: Tues: strong S'ly swell in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld. Funky winds from the SW tending S. Wed: small clean leftovers across Northern NSW. Fri: strong building S/SE tending SE groundswell, with good waves across the outer SE Qld points late afternoon. Sat: strong easing SE swell with light winds early. Good waves in SE Qld. 

Recap: Saturday saw easing S’ly swells about Northern NSW though conditions were great with a general SW tending S’ly airstream. The surf was tiny surf in SE Qld. Sunday saw small waves for much of the day with freshening NW winds. A small long period S’ly produced good waves across Southern NSW throughout the day, but it wasn’t detected at the Coffs Harbour buoy until 9pm (so, the Lower Mid North Coast may have seen a few waves late afternoon, but nowhere else). Today, this long range southerly groundswell has produced great waves across many beaches, early 4-5ft sets across Northern NSW, 3ft on the Tweed Coast and 2ft at exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast. Surf size has built slowly across all regions throughout the day, though the Mid North Coast has seen more rapid increase late afternoon thanks to a secondary S'ly swell from a Tasman Low, that’s also generated very large surf across Southern NSW (10ft+ sets in Newcastle, and max wave heights pushing 10m+ across the wave buoys). However, as yet only the Crowdy Head buoy (near Port Macquarie) is showing an appreciable J-curve representing the new mid range energy. 

This week (Aug 29th - 1st Sep)

Strong southerly swells from the Tasman Low will fill in across Northern NSW overnight, but then trend down fairly quickly from Tuesday lunchtime onwards - this low has already done most of its primary swell generation.

Winds will be initially fresh SW tending S’ly throughout the day, so exposed locations won’t really be workable - they’ll be too big anyway with sets pushing 6ft+ (south of Byron), so you’ll need to aim for a sheltered southern corner where it’ll be smaller and cleaner. 

Note: the reason for the smaller surf size (compared to Southern NSW today) is because the majority of the fetch was located right on the axis of the swell window, some of it partially sheltered by the Hunter curve. This will shave off quite a bit of size, and we’ll also see considerably smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

North the border, this swell really doesn’t look very good for SE Qld thanks to the fetch alignment, partially shadowing and short duration within our acute south swell window. The only beneficiaries are likely to be exposed northern ends (specifically, the Gold Coast) where we may see occasional bumpy 2-3ft+ sets by Tuesday afternoon, otherwise surf size will remain very small though clean across the points from this source.

However, a small E’ly swell is expected to compensate for the lacklustre S’ly swell potential. This was generated by a fetch that developed north and north-east of New Zealand late last week, and although not especially strong, should be worthy of some 2ft+ sets across most regional open beaches. Expect long breaks between waves though. Early SW tending S’ly winds will become variable into the afternoon.

Expect size to back off from lunchtime onwards across the Mid North Coast, with a delayed easing trend further north. Wednesday will however see a much more rapid easing trend; early 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron) down to 2ft+ throughout the day, and around half this size across exposed northern ends and south facing beaches in SE Qld. 

However the east swell is expected to maintain peaky though very inconsistent 2ft+ surf across most open beaches on Wednesday, and we may see a few bigger sets across the Mid North Coast owing to a slightly more favoutably fetch alignment here. Light variable winds should keep conditions clean just about everywhere. 

A gusty S’ly change will push up the Northern NSW coast early Thursday morning, linked in with a front that’s expected to seperate from a deep polar low south of Tasmania around Tuesday afternoon. An average mix of groundswell and windswell will build in behind the change on Thursday, but those beaches picking up the most size will be quite wind affected. South facing beaches may see late 3-5ft sets (mainly across the Mid North Coast) but I can’t see there being anything worthwhile.

Across SE Qld, we’re likely to see the E’ly swell continue through the morning (very inco 2ft+ sets) before easing a little into the afternoon. Winds will perk up from the south though, so expect bumpy waves at open beaches and small clean waves across the outer points. 

A new Tasman Low is then expected to form midway between NZ and the Australian mainland on Thursday, generating a bigger S/SE swell for Friday and Saturday. This groundswell isn’t being handled well by the models at this point in time, and I think we could see some strong sets pushing 6ft+ at south facing beaches (south of Byron) by late in the day, starting off a little smaller early morning. 

It’ll be smaller elsewhere, but this swell should be much better positioned for SE Qld than the Tues and Thurs south swells. At this stage the early session on Friday will probably consist of leftover S’ly windswell but the new groundswell could provide 3ft+ sets to the outer points late in the day, with bigger, bumpier surf across exposed northern ends. With SW tending S’ly winds on hand, it’s looking like a good finish to the week across the Gold Coast. 

This weekend (Sep 2nd - 3rd)

Friday’s solid S/SE groundswell will ease slowly through Saturday; early morning will have the most size (6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron) but it’ll ease steadily to 3-5ft by the late afternoon. Expect smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure.

Across SE Qld, we’ll see early 2-3ft+ sets across the outer points and bigger 4ft+ sets at exposed northern ends, again with a steady easing trend.

Conditions look great for the early session with light variable winds. A possible N’ly flow is due through the afternoon so get out there and amongst it in the morning. 

Easing swells are then expected Sunday and N’ly winds will strengthen as a vigorous frontal procession approaches from the west. Early morning may see more NW in the wind direction, favouring open beaches south of the border, but you’ll need to get in quick.

Next week (Sep 4th onwards)

Model guidance is suggesting a serious passage of strong fronts across the SE corner of the country early next week, which should lead to a sustained period of strong fluctuating south swells through the middle to latter part of next week. More on this in Wednesday’s update.