As evidenced in Craig Brokensha’s article What's Steering Alfred? written nine days before TC Alfred crossed the South-east Queensland coast, it’s been a wild ride observing the swinging pendulum of computer model surf forecasts. 

The North Atlantic has been no different. In fact, with a less-defined winter storm track - there's no equivalent of the Roaring Forties in the northern hemisphere - it's arguably even more volatile.

Admittedly, until yesterday I’ve barely had time to check the northern hemi, having arrived from OS last Thursday into the maelstrom of TC Alfred, followed by four days of Tweed Coast cleanup and then a week filling in for Craig who’s been on leave.

So when Stu temporarily filled the early-forecast void last Tuesday, the outlook looked dull in the wake of a solid pre-event groundswell. 

But things changed quickly, and the computer model pendulum swung the other way over the following days, suggesting significantly more size, but also seven days of howling onshores under a sustained pattern of late season winter fronts. 

Over the weekend, the pendulum swung again.

The path of the approaching storm track held true, but instead of a strong frontal passage across the coast, the leading front is forecast to intensify into a tight low pressure system with 50kt winds aimed just to the south of Peniche. 

The window of opportunity opens late tomorrow with an approaching low increasing its intensity

Furthermore, this low is expected to clip the southern Portuguese coast, so the Peniche region could potentially offer favourable winds. Freshening offshores overnight (i.e. right now) will swing to the south in the early hours of Monday morning, but probably remain light to moderate, tending cross-shore by late Monday morning (local time) before veering cross-offshore mid-late afternoon as the low moves south of the region.

What does this mean?

The early morning will probably start off small and slow, with leftovers from yesterday. However, a strong new westerly swell is expected to show by lunchtime, building rapidly into the afternoon, and the potential for improving surface conditions could offer a brief window of impressive surf towards the end of the day. Although the core fetch is aimed into Morocco, Southern Portugal will still see a healthy band of sideband energy and Supertubos could be pushing somewhere norrth of 8ft by late Monday.

If they're to exploit this sudden change in fortune, the WSL will have to sit out the morning funk of onshore wind, rain, small swell, and low tide, while waiting for the swell to build and wind to swing sometime after lunch - plus a rising tide peaking around 4:30pm.

As for the rest of the forecast period, there is an additional small window of promise. The original onshore pattern associated with a strong frontal progression is still due from Wednesday thru’ Saturday, but Tuesday should see a decent period of lighter winds and easing size from Monday.

After this, we’ll have no shortage of size however the winds will create havoc, and the only sheltered contest venue - Mohle Leste - won’t enjoy this pattern either.

Lows are stacked up in the North Atlantic bearimng down on the west European coastline

The last few days of the waiting period will see lighter winds but surf size will be much smaller by this point. 

So, my guess is that the WSL will try to wrap things up on Tuesday. 

// BEN MATSON