If you had to book a surf trip in advance, deep into the middle of winter anywhere around Australia, the Victorian Surf Coast would be a great bet.

During the winter months the Roaring Forties are usually up and erm...roaring, producing swell aplenty while the topographical steering effects of Cape Otway swings winds more offshore when everywhere else is blowing hard from the south-west.

Rolling the dice on the East Coast would be a gamble owing to the likelihood of clean conditions but limited, refracted southerly swell energy, as is usually the case during winter.

Enter La Niña.

Nowhere else around the country has experienced the adverse affects of the cold water signal in Pacific Ocean like the Surf Coast has.

La Niña years develop thanks to stronger than normal easterly trade-winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, piling up warmer water to the north and east of Australia.

This sets off a chain of events.

Such a setup brings lower than normal pressure to our north, which shifts the sub-tropical high pressure belt further south, and subsequently suppresses the westerly storm track down to polar latitudes. This is the pattern seen through summer but as we enter autumn and winter months, the synoptic patterns shift, but not for the better.

With the help of warm water developing to the north-west of the country (read: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole) instead of the normal polar frontal systems firing up through the Southern Ocean we see mid-latitude lows and fronts forming further north, just to the west-southwest of Western Australia.

As the Margaret River region gets smashed by large, stormy swells and gale-force onshore winds, South Australia at least picks up some of the westerly energy moving through the Bight, along with windows of lighter offshore winds.

The position off these mid-latitude storms, and more so the shadowing effect of Cape Otway where swells lose size refracting around the cape, limits any major size developing on the Surf Coast.

The beaches have been the main beneficiaries of the La Niña winters. Photo: Steve Arklay

There are benefits, however, as exposed beaches across the state, which are usually a no-go in winter, respond well to these patterns. That said, most Victorian surfers long for the large winter swells.

This has been the pattern the last couple of years, yet 2022 seems to have taken the cake with the last memorable swell arriving during the waiting period of the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach.

Below is the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly for the past month, that being July. Anomaly means difference from the long-term climate average and what's perfectly clear is the large area of higher than normal pressure smack bang south of the country, in Victoria's prime swell window.

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for July

What's also visible is the lower than normal pressure to the west-southwest of Western Australia, the spawning ground for all the mid-latitude activity. On the East Coast the signature of the out of season tropical low late month is evident, as is the source of the historic Teahupoo and Maalaea swell, south-east of New Zealand.

While the chances of a third La Niña continue to strengthen, Victorian surfers should find solace in knowing that a fourth has never occurred and we should see a quick rebound out of a possible third la Niña at the end of next summer.