Bigger than Hercules
While all eyes are focussed on the North Pacific swells hitting Hawaii from Sunday, the North Atlantic is shaping up to deliver an XXL swell mid-next week.
There's already been a couple of early season oversized swells hitting western Europe, with a XXL tow swell going down over the weekend at Nazare.
But looking ahead into early next week, we're set to see one of the largest and deepest low pressure systems since last winter. In fact this one is shaping up to be bigger than the Hercules XXL swell seen at the start of this year.
Current forecasts have a fetch of hurricane-force 65-70kt+ winds embedded within a much broader band of severe-gale to storm-force winds, projecting from the Labrador Sea directly towards Ireland.
One of the most impressive characteristics of this storm is the pressure gradient between the centre of the low, and a very strong high pressure ridge to its south-west.
Atmospheric models have the central pressure of the low 'bombing' - dropping over 24hPa within 24 hours - to 942hPa. At the same time the high pressure system off the US north-east coast is modelled to reach 1040hPa. That's a differential of approximately 100hPa over as little as 2,000km.
Also worth noting is the very warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream (4-8 degrees above average) helping feed this monster storm.
The large pressure differential is the key to the extreme wind speeds within the fetch, which are forecast to extend right across the Atlantic Ocean.
If current model guidance holds true, we could see the one of the largest wave predictions forecast by our wave model eventuate. Over 66ft of raw open ocean swell is forecast to develop west of Ireland, slamming into the country mid-next week.
Our surf forecast model for Bundoran - the town closest to Mullaghmore - has the swell peaking through Wednesday to almost 17 metres at 19 seconds, tipping it well over the 40ft+ surf height threshold.
Realistically, the surf at Mullaghmore will probably peak around 25-30ft due to its location within Donegal Bay, but with storm-force westerly winds the surf will be extremely challenging, even for the most hardened Irish surfer. In any case it will be the largest swell since Mullaghmore fell into the surfing spotlight.
This swell will also make its way down to Nazare next Thursday. The region will probably see 30ft surf, but Nazare itself will push above the regional average. We'll continue to monitor this swell along with updates from the ground across Europe. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Bundoran Surf Forecast
Bundoran WAMs
Comments
Great summery Craig. It all sounds pretty exciting & hopefully some epic surf footage will come out of it.....
Iceland and Norway on the pump!
Brrrrrr and Yew!
Exactly what I was gonna ask.
Craig: What do you think this swell event has in stock for Norway? If I remember correctly the Hercules swell tracked further south of Ireland than this one looks to be doing..
Yeah, the Hurcules swell was further south, this system is much better for Noway and we should see some decent swell squeezing between Scotland and the Shetland and Faroe Islands, hitting the south-west of the country. There'll be a lot of local windswell in the mix as well.
I know this is a little off topic Craig but do these big lows equate to heavy snow? Quite often you read about a big storm hitting Europe and a week or so later we get heavy falls here in Japan (anecdotal on my part of course).
We really need snow atm, been a very slow start to the month.
Feck Zen, you better have some pow for me come mid Jan!!!
Second that!
I hear they got a good dump yesterday. At least 30cm where I'm going in jan.
Don where are you going? Average snowfall is 3m in Jan, always dumps, especially Hokkaido. One January got 5.5m in 3 weeks.
Craig that Westerly blank has a massive fetch what's the call for Belharra size wise. There must be some other spots come to life with long period swell!
Overnight Don looks as if they got about 20cm (Niseko). I'm heading up there for the first time in 5 years in two weeks time. Probably do a side trip to Asahidake but stick around Grand Hirafu/Annapuri. Meeting a group of Aussie skiers but have snowboarding back-up with my Canadian mate and his Japanese wife coming along with me. Only a few lifts opening today apparently which is two weeks later than scheduled. I'm hoping we get a Snowmageddon storm or two in the next week or two. I always get a bit antsy this time of the year.
Where are you heading?
Hakuba again. Family trip so not after epic back country.
Sweet Don, if you get a chance take the fam to check out the hot spring bathing snow monkeys.
Love Nagano myself. Enjoy and keep us posted.
We may have to kick off another northern hemi winter thread or revive the old one.
Saw the snow monkeys she. We went to Hakuba this year (Jan). Thanks.
It would depend of if the cold outbreak holds its intensity as it pushes across Russia, or deepens again after pushing across Russia.
Will try have a closer look later at where this system is forecast to end up after it passes across Europe.
We will Don, don't worry.
Just not much at the moment:)
Settle down, be patient brother of the snow.
Yuki will suffice well;)
Hopw so Welly.
New sleigh waxed ready to go.
Ireland Schmireland, hurry up and forecast a cyclone swell for the east coast of oz please gents!
That's it, I'm off to the NH. Just the excuse I needed to pack the boardies away and don the 5mm. (Bloody global warming has really hit SA's water temp for six - it was at least 12 degrees this morning). #sweatshopconditions
Hey Stu......hows ya forecasting looking for nazare....??
looks like the storm that happened in the 80's and created the "perfect storm" ??
looks like might go with RCJ......??
Hey MC, gonna be very large Nazare through Thursday, peaking into the evening but the only issue are local winds.
They're expected to be fresh to strong cross-shore from the NNE but easing through the day, so later afternoon will be the window for the biggest and cleanest waves.
Hard to put a size but probably looking at 30ft+ surf, ie 60ft+ faces.
Hi Craig......do you think the system has backed off a touch?
just wondering if it will be as big as they say?
Not from what I can see. Core wind speeds are the slightest bit weaker, but the fetch being aimed towards Europe is absolutely huge and up to 65kt+.
Only issue for me is that the Nazare canyon is directly west of Nazare and looks to focus W/NW swells better than NW swells, which this one will be. So there could be size loss from that aspect, but eveything else is still looking very solid for an XXL swell.
Craig my friend, you are the Funk & Wagnalls of surf forecasting:)
Hi Craig could you give me an update in 8 hrs..we are actually going to further south where there is a big barrel......but Nazarre needs to be every bit of30'+
Still well on track MC, nothing's going to really change from here on besides the local wind forecast.
Direction is more N/NW than NW and that is a worry, but if you're spot loves a large long-period N/NW groundswell and N'ly winds (doesn't sound like the best combo for big clean waves) then it should be on.
Craig:
I'm looking at the forecast for two regions in Norway; Stavanger and Stadt which Swellnet covers in Rogaland central and Sogn og Fjordane north.
There's quite large differences in the swell period and height between the two areas and I was wondering why that is? Is it due to the swell shadowing from Faroe Islands and Shetland island?
On a side note, Greg Long and Dave Rastovich was apparently aboard a Billabong boat late last month heading up the Norwegian coastline, according to a Norwegian newspaper.
Hi Erik,
Just had a quick look and the main difference between the two locations is that the northern region is showing larger levels of groundswell as expected, but the southern point which is more shadowed is showing larger levels of windswell, which you can see when looking at the advanced tab.
With the storm pushing so close too all the forecast locations there'll be a lot of windswell contamination with the groundswell and the models really find it hard to differentiate the two. So sometimes it combines them and other times it correctly splits them.
So looking at the swell train data I'd say the northern point with the larger amounts of groundswell will be bigger than the southern point with the larger amounts of windswell, due to the blocking off the Faroe and Shetland Islands.
We haven't really had a close look at the Norway forecasts to confirm/verify their accuracy, and this system isn't probably the best to do it with either with all the windswell contamination.
Thanks for your reply Craig!
Be interesting to see what fjords will turn on in this swell (bet you havent heard that one before), I know a fair few crew back home that will be hunting around.
Oh great, let us know if they score, or any images come through, would love to see them/share them on the site.
yeah norway erikb I'm keen, send some photos so we can froth. We have some Fiords at home (NZ) too, that break it is a real surprise.
I'm actually in oz at the moment so I'll be relying on whatever my mates send through. They've been quite good boys lately and deleted all their epic shots on instagram cause I think they were getting a bit too much exposure than they would like.
If I post anything here it'll be nicely cropped ;)
Magic S Weed -hoddevikka surf report lots of swell forecast for this week 13-20ft
Water temp 8 deg .
Yes there is a bombie in that corner of the country that I've seen a pic off from last winter. Cruiseliner 'Hurtigruten' in the foreground, wave towering over in the background. Very curious to see what that will look like on this swell.
Some great satellite readings of the fetch in the Atlantic coming in, similar to this one.. http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php
MC, you heading to Nazare with RCJ? Also have you got some new designs/shapes/materials your trying to test out in this really big swell?
ended up getting Michel Laronde to drive RCJ.........RCJ will be testing a new Appelcore triple stringer special supa dense foam ...with 3 layers of 6 OZ.......so we could get a really strong stiff bd...waiting for feedback .......just too flat out here plus I am the unfittest I have been in my life,but was ready to drive....still major hormone side effects...got nice tits though!
Thanks for that MC, hope it all goes to plan over there! And thanks for that visualisation, not, ha!
Finally an aussie gunna ride the nazare mountains . And the bwwt comp is on right ?
Yeah Camel, starting at 7pm AEST I think, so in 1.5 hours.
Its live on Fuel 503. Looks bad onshore, but some bombs. Horn just fired. Atleast there's no Martin Potter in the booth
Couple off waves ridden so far but nothing amazing. Looks like a tricky lineup to figure out.
Early days but it looks like a terrible call from Peter Mel to leave Jaws for this.....maybe wind swings.
The production is 100 times better than last year though.
Gabriel Villaran's wipeout is epic. He side rolled down his board on his head twice!!!!
Great wipeout but we need close ups. The cameramen (or women) have gotta zoom those suckers in.
Stu - great viewing on big screen in HD.
Interesting though from water angle looks lot smaller.
Skindog just said its a lot bigger than last year so could be big in arvo.
Hey ThermalBen, is this swell hitting Nazare today bigger than the last west swell that hit Nazare?
Different sort of big wave but big and crazy
Yeah looks like a bad wave ay. Shifty, fat and the only decent quality is that it holds size.
Is it me or does Pete Mel remind anybody else of Will Ferrell?
Hahahaha...
Shit if Twig didn't get a wave in 45 mins be tough for the jo average BW dreamer. Looks like its getting better though and bigger.
Nic Lamb looked real good, like Camel front fronted shock absorber.
Love a pano at the rocks? They say its really dangerous without the ski as the cliff, but googlemaps just has a beach.
Gunna hit record and watch it tomorrow
Ericb shhhh. The water is cold , it's always windy . Norge sux. Skjule
Hahah ingen planer om aa roepe no spots, men keen paa aa faa de gutta her til aa se litt naermere paa surf reports for hjemtraktene ;)
Hei gutter, har vi ikke rapporter eller surfe kameraer for Norge, men vi har prognoser og bølgemodeller . Du finner dem her :
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/europe/norway/north-sea
Vi har også informasjon om andre steder i Norge, bare søke i nettstedet.
Farvel.
Visste ikke at du var flerspråklig Stu!
hahahaha love it!
Anyone watch that Big Wave Comp?
Watched about the first two hours but only 'cos I was doing something else. Wouldn't imagine many people would've bothered staying up to watch it, there simply wasn't enough waves ridden and those that were were burgers. That said, just saw Nic Lamb's 10-pointer in the final and it was a great drop.
Watched for ten minutes. Saw Gabriel Villaran (?) go down on a bumpy, rolling piece of shit that looked like 20' Bondi under a southerly buster. Apparently the surface tension on a wave of that size makes the water as hard as concrete , so I guess he was lucky to get pitched face first onto the deck of his 10' board. Maybe.
Surf was just too terrible to watch.
I watched up until the end of the two semis and then couldn't wait around for the final as they were having an hour break to recommence.
I enjoyed it. Was a bit slow at times but just to watch those guys in the shifting conditions was pretty cool. I also enjoyed the different strategies they employed. Some grabbing the insiders others waiting for the bombs out the back. Watching a couple of those beautiful guns being washed up over the rocks was pretty cringeworthy.
I enjoyed some of the commentary too, especially when Jamie Mitchel got in the booth, Twiggy Baker and Adam Replogle.
I thought Pat Gudang charged along with Nick Lamb and Makuakai.
Yep i did . The waves got better as it went along with some impressive surfing . At first i thought the wave was total shit & becos twig couldnt even find one wave . Then in the semi when i was watching 100% i started to understand how the wave formed . Nate fletcher impressed on an 11"0 & then everyone except a few unlucky where getting waves . It actually was exciting from that semi onwards . I didnt see all the early heats but saw the last 2 hrs .
I didn't last very long either, had it on in the background but only saw a half dozen waves ridden over the course of about an hour. Wasn't especially big and wave quality was very ordinary - nothing on offer after the initial drop.
Cam, hows the way Nate surfed that 11 footer? I can't believe someone can do turns on a board like that.
I mistakenly left him out in my post above, thought he charged too. And the young fella, Natxo (Spelling?).
Any news of nazare ? Belharra ? Who rode a 100 ft peak
Couple of shots from Nazare, she was big, but doesn't look biggest ever!! Swell was more N/NW and I think Nazare gets biggest on those W/NW swells as it funnels up the canyon. How'd RCJ go MC?
Wow nice thanx craig
RCJ got the first wave of the day...sounds like it might have been the biggest wave of the day...and then the Jetski broke down......still waiting to see if anyone shot it....
benjamin sanchis had a couple of wave hold down.....and hit the bottom....more to come...
Wow, hitting the bottom out there, man that's stupid!
And spewing about the jetski, hopefully a photo surfaces of RCJ. Keep us posted, cheers.
Ross's wave is up on XXL site. Someone put a measurement on it. I have no idea. Huge!!
Ben ,
Was going to get you to ask RCJ about the waves at Nazare .
Or Brutus if you can ask .
That wave he just totally flirts with the foam ball /whitewater . Is that just him or is it a comment on the waves breaking softish ( obviously a >30ft wave has a lot water in it , and I for one probably wouldn't last a hold down out there , esp sans vest )
.
But perhaps the setting and bathmetry is just creating standing waves , which are twenty foot waves pushing up behind a 20ft trough . Let's face it looks more like a blue run than a double black diamond .
Clearly the inside where it wedges up and detonates is nightmarish .
Would be keen to hear his thoughts , even if it was second hand conveyed . ( so no one got upset , if I was right and it was a little underwhelming for him ) .
PS , would love to have radar gun on him , fare chance he was going near that magical speed during that fading arc .
It's looks like Nazare is where one day a surfer is going to ride the biggest wave ever?
That wave of Ross Carke Jones's looks bloody massive!
After reviewing images and video of previous huge waves ridden out there, I wonder how the size of Ross's wave compares?
Southey, I'm surprised that you would describe that wave RCJ rode out there as 'softish' but I guess your used to surfing XXL waves being from Victoria and all?
After seeing this wave repeatedly for the last few years at ginormous size the question is why did it take so long for everyone to find out about it ? How many times has it been huge & perfect before we all discovered it ? Will it become boring ?
Although ross could possibly be the man to entertain us more with his carving fades
YS .
I wasn't saying it was soft .
Just that usually with a wave even 3/4 that size , you can't skirt the foam like he did and get away with it . Watch footage of Jaws , or perhaps waves over here , SA , WA , Tassie & Oahu , Nth California , Mexico . usually you can't get away with that shit ( ask Jughead ) . So it either says that a fair bit of energy is spent with those waves feathering forever , the canyon artificially enhances it into a wedge which although builds it's height, also takes some energy , the beach creates a huge rip in which these waves are rolling through , creating a standing type wave which magnify's the trough infront of them .
OR
Much to ' downpush's ' discust , RCJ is the best big wave tow surfer by a long way .
Personally I think it's all of the above ,
Don't get me wrong I love this sort of rare anomaly wave . Natures rare beauty !!!!
Not sure how deep it is out there but the fact that someone hit the bottom would suggest more power than maybe you think Southey? I agree RCJ is definately one of the best tow blokes, the fact he managed that wave without falling is amazing.
Nazare more powerful than Jaws?? Any thoughts?? Or is it something that simply can't be compared......
Rabbits ,
If you get dragged to the inside your toast .... Peaking death wedges with 40 ft top to bottom closeouts probably in less than 15-20 of water ( watch the sand get churned up )
As for riding the peaks out the back , I think RCJ ' toying ' with it answers your question .....
Mind you , there's a reason no -ones going to paddle it ... Serious hydraulics going on !!
Southey, I agree that inside section looks so heavy & scary (and the outside!!)
Not sure RCJ was toying with it tho, I reckon he was at the limits on the particular one. Be intersting to hear from him in regards to that.........
Everyone else like carlos burle got knocked off their feet by the whitwater . According to science and we can ask the swellnut team to back it up . The deepwater bathymetry magnifies the power & speed of the wave . Im guessing it would rip the skin away from your eyeballs .
Cool new side on angle of Nazare by Everton Luis.. Shows how slopey the wave is but also the pure size!
Far out Craig that pic tells the story for sure. How's the sheer volume of water in that beast?!?
YewCraig! that's the Image i've been wanting to see, you can't really tell the true size of the things looking down on the lineup off the Nazare cliff. this shows the proper magnitude. You can see the distance from crest to trough clearly