Commonwealth Games cancelled

Well if the blowout for the Comm games is $7b+, lets hope QLD cancels the Olympic games which would make $7b+ look like pocket change.

Why such cost blowouts? I would assume the majority of infrastructure is already there, what else needs to be built?

I just looked into the games they had in Birmingham last year, below is some quick info from wiki. I don't think these places have better sports infrastructure than Melbourne.

At the time of submission of the bid to the CGF, the bid committee announced that the event would cost £750 million.[51] On 25 June 2019, the British Government announced that the event will cost £778 million. The British Government will cover the 75% (£594 million) and Birmingham City Council will cover the rest 25% (£184 million).[52] The budget is lower than the £967 million spent on the Gold Coast 2018, but higher than the £543 million spent on the Glasgow 2014. It is set to be the most expensive sporting event in the UK since the 2012 Summer Olympics in London which cost £8.8 billion.[53] The real cost will be published after completion.

thanks thermalben,
we don't have telly, so the kids and I really enjoyed watching that for the last 45 mins : )

And the winner is... Seeedeneeey!

I think it's a great precedent for a government to set. Most governments would sooner bankrupt their state than take the political hit.

Not wanting to sound mean-spirited, but it's a good decision to make. Vic has pretty high debt levels iirc

dandandan wrote:

I think it's a great precedent for a government to set. Most governments would sooner bankrupt their state than take the political hit.

Agree. Without knowing all the details it appears Andrews is responding to inflation with one of Churchill's rejoinders:

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

flollo wrote:

Why such cost blowouts? I would assume the majority of infrastructure is already there, what else needs to be built?.

The games were to be held in regional Victoria, not in Melbourne, and it sounds like they looked at the possibility of shifting it to the city and it didn't stack up. Copied this from the ABC:

So why not just move the Games to Melbourne?

The premier has been asked why the Games couldn't have been held in Melbourne, rather than cancelled altogether?

He says the government has "looked at every option".

"We have looked at every conceivable option. All of them are far in excess of the $2.6 billion that's been budgeted, so all of them represent more cost than there is benefit, and on that basis none of those options stack up and we're not going to be hosting the Games in 2026."

He said many of Melbourne's competition-grade facilities were "fairly busy".

"So there is a cost so we would not be using them, and there is also the small matter of you could save money by not building villages for instance, but then every hotel room in the city would be pretty much taken up by those who are part of the Games, not those who are coming here to watch the Games.

"So again the cost-benefit ratio does not stack up."

And who could take the games with just over 2 years notice?

If there was to be a large amount of building accommodation for it in regional Vic, I can understand the cost blow outs - currently flat stick with our regional tradey, lots of projects to complete, costs rising, other builders/suppliers going bust in places as of the contract/materials/labour squeeze - but jobs still needing to be finished.

Then there's the joy of the regulatory fee costs which I reckoned added about 20+% to adding an extra bedroom some years before covid, those will still be a thing.

dandandan wrote:

I think it's a great precedent for a government to set. Most governments would sooner bankrupt their state than take the political hit.

Agree, it would be obscene to push on with such a barely-relevant, outdated event if it was going to be such a ridiculous drain on the public purse.
Brave political decision.

It's a different world with interest rates reverting toward their historical averages.

On top of his recent pokie decision -https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/16/victoria-sweeping... which Chris Minns wouldn’t take ( probably to get over the line in his recent election), is Dan clearing the decks for retirement?

from ABC live stream:

'Latrobe City Mayor Kellie O'Callaghan conceded it was going to be a mammoth task to deliver on what was promised.

"The [athletes'] village would have been a bit of a challenge in terms of so many across the state, building them all at once," Cr O'Callaghan said.

"[The] increased cost on everything that anyone's needing to purchase, engage with or contract at the moment has escalated to the point where it's just become an unreasonable burden."'

Bingo.

Yeah, the opposition and certain media types will try to say this is an embarrassing humiliation for Victoria and Australia, but I think the government has rightly read the room and recognized most people - even big sports fans - will likely be on their side and see it as a logical call. Particularly in the parts of society they see as their voter base.

Big decision but a brave one for sure.

so, after watching dan's press thingo, i'm still unclear.. is the commonwealth games a 12 day sporting event?

Probably means the end of the Commonwealth Games full stop. South Africa (Durban) reached the same conclusion prior to the 2022 games, so not without precedence. Shame for the athletes but a smart financial move given the circumstances.

What’s the revenue side of this? Who cares what the cost is if the revenue stacks up nicely. It must be a heavy money loser. Does anyone know?

flollo wrote:

What’s the revenue side of this? Who cares what the cost is if the revenue stacks up nicely. It must be a heavy money loser. Does anyone know?

"ruinously expensive" apparently.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/ruinously-expensive-sa-wa-rule-out-picki...

Brisbane should snap it up and fast-track some of the Olympics infrastructure.

I think it's fairly settled that hosting the Olympics is a big loss for host nations, spending billions in public money to generate a smaller amount of private returns. It's a huge profit maker for certain industries - namely construction, who rely heavily on needless public spending to keep themselves going. I'd imagine the Commonwealth Games have similar expenses, which reduced revuenue.

A good article here (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/business/olympics-economics.html), with a good quote about why cities keep pushing to host them despite them being such big loss makers:

"The main answer is that you have the construction industry executives deciding that this would be a wonderful thing for their industry. They’re going to get billions of dollars of contracts. They can line up, of course, the trade unions, and some investment bankers. They hire a consulting firm to do an economic impact study, which uses a faulty methodology and makes some unrealistic assumptions. And they come out with “By golly, this is going to put our city on the map.”

I feel sorry for SE Qld (and northern NSW) surely the last thing these areas need is to become busier and with higher real estate prices as a flow-on effect of Commonwealth and Olympic games.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-02/how-the-2004-olympics...

How about spending on health, homelessness, housing, and supportive productive industry policy to value-add and create future wealth and high-tech career paths for young people?

If sports get a bit more humble, they will still be fun to watch/attend.

Edit: the cost blowout is a really interesting example of economics - there will be a point at which the cost of an item reduces the demand for said item. Roughly speaking!

Might be they had contracts signed with the Dyldam Group to cover the construction components!!!

thermalben wrote:

Hosting the Commonwealth Games "has consistently provided an economic boost of over $1.86 billion for host cities."

So says PwC.

https://ministryofsport.com/commonwealth-games-provides-over-1-86-billio...

In a report commissioned by the Commonwealth Games Federation haha. It's this kind of thing that is so frustrating when you're just trying to find relatively simple answers.

I don't mind the idea put forward in the article I shared above, that both the Olympics and Commonwealth games just be held in the same place all the time rather than have to rebuild "the Olympic Shangri-La" over and over again every 4 years.

+1 for Shangri-La :)

now a trip down memory lane

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-09/auditor-general-reports-on-east-w...

I'm pretty taken aback by the Commonwealth/Olympic Games negativity.

The reason Victoria can't do something as simple as host a Commonwealth Games is it's a failed, broken, debt-ridden communist state run by a dictator.

hahahahah....

Gsco - Considering the current economic and social climate, I can’t believe you’re surprised.

main economic reality being faced here is Victoria has so much public debt that it shot itself in the foot and ran out of runway for spending.

At least it appears that they may have abandoned MMT pseudo-economics

wow, haha, I was actually wondering if gsco's eurocentric perspective on the complexities of world history would extend to thinking the commonwealth games is representative of the last vestiges of the 'mighty pillars of western civilisation'.
Good call Dan & co.

Ohh geez the outrage squad will be squawking from the Sky for days...

gsco wrote:

I'm pretty taken aback by the Commonwealth/Olympic Games negativity.

The reason Victoria can't do something as simple as host a Commonwealth Games is it's a failed, broken, debt-ridden communist state run by a dictator.

gsco wrote:

main economic reality being faced here is Victoria has so much public debt that it shot itself in the foot and ran out of runway for spending.

At least it appears that they may have abandoned MMT pseudo-economics

100% correct

For some perspective, its not only a basket case compared to other states in Australia.

"There are 17 states like Victoria around the world. None has more debt

Victoria has the worst debt burden of 17 similar states across the world, and credit agencies warn it is likely to deteriorate unless tough decisions are made to cut infrastructure spending and raise more taxes."

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/there-are-17-states-like-vic...

Lucky for Vic it's retained it's capacity as the manufacturing power house of the country - stuff like Ford's Geelong engine and stamping plant, GM-H's Port Melbourne engine foundry, Pilkington Glass, Toyota at Altona, Alcoa Geelong, Broadmeadows assembly for Ford, all the component and parts suppliers, you know the real value-adding stuff that outperforms in times where AUD goes low into the bin and the competitiveness pendulum swings back in our favour. All the technical jobs and careers, the recycling of well paid technical wages...

Oh, hang on, that's all gone.

I suggest a cappuccino levee of $1 a cup to repair the state's finances

2026 Bidders Timeline Dates + *CG Host Costs ( Olympics / World Cups)

Early 2017 NZ make first bid for 2026 Games (re: Earthquake repairs)
2018 *Gold Coast ($1.5B) multi City Com Games (GC / Bne / Cairns / Townsville)
May 2018 - Aug 2021 Sydney
Sept 2018 - Sept 2019 SA
Dec 2018 - Sept 2021 Perth
Feb 2019 ($3.4B) > July 2023 ($7.1B) 2032 *Meanjin multi city Olympics
Sept 2019 + July 2023 *Gold Coast back up offers for 2026 Com Games (Qld Premier Overrules)
Feb 2022 - Tasmania (Bid also offered to Co/Host)
Jan 2022 - April 2022 ($2.6B) Victoria Multi City Hosts > July 2023 Cancellation ($7B+).
July 2022 ($1.5B) *Birmingham

2026 Bidding Nations
Oz / NZ / England / Wales / Canada / India / Malaysia / Sri Lanka

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bids_for_the_2026_Commonwealth_Games

Cost Blow Out considerations...
Firstly...Goldie Games were pre Covid in last of a golden age...
GC blew heaps of waste but had boots on the ground where it mattered.
GC had 15,000 volunteers from 45,000 applied
GC Security = ADF 1,000 + 3,500 Police + AFP + ABF (Without the A Team...yer fucked!)

Transit is impossible a/h (GC ticket holders missed Ceremonies / Finals + 2hrs wait in rain for pick ups)
Goldie banned Uber to palm the Clunky Bus Rorts...can't use these rust buckets after recent events!

Post Covid Com Games require A1 security & now every punter will demand it!
Regional a/h intra city transit timetable won't come cheap + Seat belt refits with 5* Rated Coaches
#1 Coaches 24/7 Concierges across whole state...just try winding up one bus without it! Huh!

Dan > ($7B+) compare to other mid/post Covid events
All $AUD...
Tokyo Olympics ($19B)
World Cup/s SA ($7.3B) > Brazil ($28.1B) > Russia ($20.5B) > Qatar ($330B)
https://parbery.com.au/cost-of-the-fifa-world-cup/#:~:text=Holding%20a%2....
WR Inflation / WR Accom / WR Vic Security / WR Transit Compliance = Not Cheap! WR $B's

Oz / NZ Women's World Cup ($515m) $100m from Host Govts
$90m Fifa + $150m Host + $ 275m Legacy over (8years) = (Return $460m + extra)
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australian-players-and-fans-are-cele...
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/football-australia-to-pitch-for-near...

Vic, over 30% of state revenue comes from stamp duty, what could possibly go wrong?

https://grattan.edu.au/news/stamp-duty-isnt-going-anywhere-until-we-can-...

tbb condolences on Olympic deluge to come

The economic modelling for Victoria's finances must have been shocking for Dan to make such a decision. The Treasury bean counters usually get rolled by the politics. Pass the debt to the next generation is the easy option.

Greece is still suffering the Olympics they could not afford.

basesix wrote:

wow, haha, I was actually wondering if gsco's eurocentric perspective on the complexities of world history would extend to thinking the commonwealth games is representative of the last vestiges of the 'mighty pillars of western civilisation'.
Good call Dan & co.

That's really interesting and I can see that there is a significant "anti-colonialism" push to relegate the Commonwealth Games to the scrapheap, like this ABC anti-Western civilisation propaganda hate piece. It even says:

"We're now a very diverse nation. So why do we really have to promote something which raises negative issues associated with colonialism?"

More communist, anti-conservative, left progressive rejection of our historical roots in favour of "diversity" and "inclusion" whatever the fuck this all means, because:

The hypocrisy, contradiction and fallacy of it all is the very same media outlets fully promote and push joining AUKUS - the ultimate contemporary continuation and expression of our holy Catholic, colonialist, imperialist, conquering, bloodstained and warmongering roots and history - like it's the greatest thing to ever happen to Australia.

The progressive left is turning Australia into a more and more mixed up, confused circus of contradictions every day.

“ The progressive left is turning Australia into a more and more mixed up, confused circus of contradictions every day.”

I think there’s some value to this statement but if you think indifference to the Commonwealth games is explicitly about being anticolonial, I think that’s a bit of a stretch.

^^ absolutely AM
(not an attack gsco, I actually found it rather engaging when you went all humphrey appleby after sharing some very interesting economic insights.. forums are all about different points of view : )

Dan’s just reading the tea leaves and preparing for the Republic Games

I hope they cancel the olympics in Brisbane too. Spend the money on infrastructure for the 4 million + that will be living here by 2032.

:/

gsco wrote:

I'm pretty taken aback by the Commonwealth/Olympic Games negativity.

The reason Victoria can't do something as simple as host a Commonwealth Games is it's a failed, broken, debt-ridden communist state run by a dictator.

If only the Morrison government didn’t veto comrade Andrew’s CCP Belt and Road Initiative (trillion $ deal?) with that other communist dictator …

GuySmiley wrote:

Are the progressive left the same as the woke left or are we talking about some other socialist leftist group?

Don’t forget the fake left.

Actually you could ask Wilhelm, who’s keeping a running hashtag list of all the culprits.

Surprised Wilhelm hasn’t chimed in yet..

Andrew P wrote:

Dan’s just reading the tea leaves and preparing for the Republic Games

I hope they cancel the olympics in Brisbane too. Spend the money on infrastructure for the 4 million + that will be living here by 2032.

South-east Queensland is a shit show - they need to stabilise their population and let infrastructure catch up.
The area has been going backwards for the 40+ years I’ve been anywhere near it.

TBB's done a good coverage of how things are changing as the games get closer, sounds full on already coming off all the covid migration

The anti-colonial argument against the Commonwealth Games is very fringe and is only amplified because of its novelty. Fact is that Commonwealth Games means little to most people and a lot of people are only hearing about them at all because they've been cancelled. Almost nobody in the staff room today knew they were supposed to be happening in Melbourne. Just look at all the sports bodies coming out today basically saying that their sports are so niche and unpopular in mainstream Australia that they need the games to get any exposure at all. They're just not relevant to enough people anymore and we shouldn't pretend that they have some kind of a deeply historical legacy: it's been around since the 1930s, held just 22 times ever, and only called the Commonwealth Games since 1978. They're a new thing, and seemingly not here to stay.